Cobra's Market View

vats wrote:Re: 08/12/2011 Intraday Watering

Unread postby ccash04 » Fri Aug 12, 2011 8:05 am

lazytrader wrote:

Cobra wrote:

vats wrote:Hi Cobra and all the participants,
I am a newbie ..I have put and a call in silver for september at diffrent strikes. question is, why are both puts and calls down? for all the months and strikes??
appreciate your insight! thanks



I don't trade options, so no expert here. My guess is because IV is down.




It is because of theta...time decay and as Cobra mentioned IV could be down..




They are september calls and puts so theta is negligible, its pure a function of IV or implied volatility going down. Since the volatility jumped a lot in the past 8 days and the movement is not as big as volatility implies it will lose value relative to the previous implied vol.

In order to offset this use spreads, whether it be vertical or calendar or a combination of both. At such high vol. you want to have some exposure to short vol. in order to help alleviate the risk of vol. falling while still taking advantage of price movements."

"besides why would you want to have hold silver puts we all know its going to 70 once QE3 gets announced later this month "

Thanks all, now I understand it better. The reason for put is to protect my physical holdings. Hope, silver goes to 70 or 100, that is the reason for calls.

muktuk wrote:Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

oldpigwang wrote:Cobra Da : you mean up trend target 120?

muktuk wrote:Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

newbie_77 wrote:cobra,
2nd test of morning high 119.19 . is that the test of the HOD ? or the resistance?

muktuk wrote:Wow! I am learning alot...thank you to Cobra and all the contributors.
I am new to TA and have a question about time frames on charts that I am confused about. There are many time frame charts shown and discussed with seemingly different patterns on the different time frames...H&S here, triangle there, etc.
Could someone assist me with how I can interpret the differences?
Thanks!!!

rhight wrote: The red box is a statistical time & price window for an expected 60 min. cycle high based on the last 6 cycles measured with a 0.75 zig-zag filter. When price went clear through it (although it did hiccup on the way through) I interpret this as bullish. The blue box is the next expected 60 min. cycle low. From experience, if this is a new intermediate bull trend, then price may not touch it.
The 50 DMA made a bear cross of the 200 DMA yesterday that may have long term implications, but the 200 DMA was rising, and is now flat, and price may have a chance at re-testing that area before a longer term down trend ensues.
I'm including a chart of one indicator that supposedly has a good track record and has not triggered since March 2009 (see bottom of chart.) The idea comes from "Technical Analysis" Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist page 147. It triggered several times during the 2008 decline. The present May-August time may have a rough parallel to the 10/2007 to 01/2008 period, and so I'm cautiously long.

KENA wrote:

soku wrote:this is damn boring. maybe a b-o, but again i don't like it. if it takes out 1181 but failed at 1186 area, this could be a tradable pattern. my target is around 1173-1174 area.

It has to take out 1186 to go higher.I may stay in if it does.Lets see.