Cobra's Market View

Are dollar and stock market moving in opposite directions?

jarbo456 wrote:per the usual - this market is bullishly bonkers - 300+ point ramp - and the bear leg is a 400 point single leg down move. market makers are going to push this as high as possible, while the bond market - less than euphoric - is away for the long weekend.

in the meantime, while the equity market is pushing up over 2.6% from it's very low (1226-1258) (SPX)...the dollar (78.42-77.43) (/DX) has lost just around 1.2% from it's very high. which divergence makes sense? are we following fx or is fx following the equity market...i think that's an easy enough question to answer.

Extension of Butterflies; see revised charts above.

More bearish.

snowinwind wrote:Are dollar and stock market moving in opposite directions?

jarbo456 wrote:per the usual - this market is bullishly bonkers - 300+ point ramp - and the bear leg is a 400 point single leg down move. market makers are going to push this as high as possible, while the bond market - less than euphoric - is away for the long weekend.

in the meantime, while the equity market is pushing up over 2.6% from it's very low (1226-1258) (SPX)...the dollar (78.42-77.43) (/DX) has lost just around 1.2% from it's very high. which divergence makes sense? are we following fx or is fx following the equity market...i think that's an easy enough question to answer.

all that i know is what i see, and the dollar futures have barely moved down while the equity markets (which usually get keyed off the dollar) are just ramping unabashedly.

gabor wrote: OK, so nasdaq is the most speculative sector of the NYSE.

Indeed, were you around in 1999-2000?

POP QUIZ
What three government agencies would YOU cut?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVq27glk ... re=related

jarbo456 wrote:

snowinwind wrote:Are dollar and stock market moving in opposite directions?

jarbo456 wrote:per the usual - this market is bullishly bonkers - 300+ point ramp - and the bear leg is a 400 point single leg down move. market makers are going to push this as high as possible, while the bond market - less than euphoric - is away for the long weekend.

in the meantime, while the equity market is pushing up over 2.6% from it's very low (1226-1258) (SPX)...the dollar (78.42-77.43) (/DX) has lost just around 1.2% from it's very high. which divergence makes sense? are we following fx or is fx following the equity market...i think that's an easy enough question to answer.

all that i know is what i see, and the dollar futures have barely moved down while the equity markets (which usually get keyed off the dollar) are just ramping unabashedly.

with that being said, it is at a key 77.50 level.

The Executive, the Legislative and the Judicial.

xfradnex wrote:italian bond down big from 6.9x% area to 6.4x area. The new guy will fix it.

BTP's have been fluctuating madly in the past 24 hours with central bank intervention. yesterday they closed at under 5%. i guess since we haven't seen a spike in italian bonds over 7% in the past 24 hours is good enough for 200 DOW points...

even though anything really above...ZERO% is unsustainable for Italian payments which is why they would LOVE the 50% Greek haircut.

on a serious note though, 6.5% where it's trading now is hardly "good"...

morning guys:if we rally above 1278 spx, especially if we close above 1278, that will be proof that it's time to add to longs and that correction is over but best bet is that we are in an abcde triangle (as i outlined in the comments section last night) that started 10/27/11 at 1292.66 and that we will probably see 1245-48 today or monday - from there we should rally strongly to new recent highs then higher. chart and info: http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/

MrMiyagi wrote:

gabor wrote: OK, so nasdaq is the most speculative sector of the NYSE.

Indeed, were you around in 1999-2000?

NDAQ is another exchange as compare to NYSE. Listing rules are lighter. More high beta companies are there. This means it moves faster on either side than NYSE

MrMiyagi wrote:

gabor wrote: OK, so nasdaq is the most speculative sector of the NYSE.

Indeed, were you around in 1999-2000?

Nasdaq is the cheapest index, this is why they react to it first :
Nq = $46,000
ES = $ 62,000
YM = $ 60,000
I see it that way

jarbo456 wrote:

xfradnex wrote:italian bond down big from 6.9x% area to 6.4x area. The new guy will fix it.

BTP's have been fluctuating madly in the past 24 hours with central bank intervention. yesterday they closed at under 5%. i guess since we haven't seen a spike in italian bonds over 7% in the past 24 hours is good enough for 200 DOW points...

even though anything really above...ZERO% is unsustainable for Italian payments which is why they would LOVE the 50% Greek haircut.

on a serious note though, 6.5% where it's trading now is hardly "good"...

of course as i post that the yields fall off another 70bps (10%), and we have a spike the euro.

This morning I put on a small pilot short position. I am giving it a wide berth at this point with a very loose stop.
As of last night my intermediate term read was still bullish but deteriorating.
This is an anticipatory trade that eventually the formation we're in breaks down.
I do not have a clear signal at this point (odds are 50/50) so this is a small set up on a speculation. Truly could go either way IMO.
I expect the market to hold together through OPEX next week and plan on being down on this position at points.
The reason to do something now is to plant a seed at a good level. For a tortoise like me, it is hard to deal with this markets sudden big moves.
So, I start turning the wheel before the ship actually turns.
I'll probably be doing nothing until further notice. However, if we get overbought or if internals deteriorate further, I may stack on another layer.
Not sure I should post this as it is a scouting trade not a conviction trade, but I have been posting all here good and bad...

MrMiyagi wrote:

gabor wrote: OK, so nasdaq is the most speculative sector of the NYSE.

Indeed, were you around in 1999-2000?

Yes. But things change, do not they?

99er wrote:The Executive, the Legislative and the Judicial.

the whole magilla?? the full monte??

jarbo456 wrote:

xfradnex wrote:italian bond down big from 6.9x% area to 6.4x area. The new guy will fix it.

BTP's have been fluctuating madly in the past 24 hours with central bank intervention. yesterday they closed at under 5%. i guess since we haven't seen a spike in italian bonds over 7% in the past 24 hours is good enough for 200 DOW points...

even though anything really above...ZERO% is unsustainable for Italian payments which is why they would LOVE the 50% Greek haircut.

on a serious note though, 6.5% where it's trading now is hardly "good"...

Agree.
It has been said that 7.00 is the level we break immediatly. Today we don't go into the toilet, so lets party.

Update:

Cobra,

Is this rally too strong? Does it nullify the start of downtrend call and instead this wednesday just a countertrend correction? Thanks

Hourly update

have a good day trading guys. i'm in trapped shorts, but this market is feeling very manipulative at this point. i think the shorts are in for an ugly day on this low volume semi-holiday.

something is keying off the EUR suddenly...and that's not good for the bears.

i'm closing shop for the day so i don't have to watch the equity drain from the account as shit hits the ceiling.

EUR ramp of over 60 pips in the past 15 minutes or so...and the dollar index about to lose it's 200MA on the hourlies...pretty ridic if you ask me.