12/21/2011 Intraday Watering

[cougar]

Hey Al!...We missed you!

Thanks cougar
Please post your VIX chart when u have a minute

antique swingers alert: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tA-9dGOy ... re=related

Here you go...
VIX has to stay ~2-4 bars under the Acceleration Band to prepare a healthy bounce.
Right now, I am only watching, but starting to get ready…

[johnnywa]

does anyone know what time they auction 7yr bond today

[LBJ_OldPeking]

if we have FR downgraded today, then VIX will surge like rockets...
no fear no fun

Gotta give up on VIX. It's not accurate anymore.

1 min internals
VIX acting like a crazy person again today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

PLEASE NOTE: I’m testing a new TICK guideline setting here. It’s designed to ignore flags and little corrections, and only cross the zero line at or near a “trend change.” It is unavoidable however, that it will cross on large opening gaps and fake-out spikes. On a choppy day it should hug the zero line and tell us that according to the tick it is a choppy/directionless market day. We have yet to see how and when it lags. If you’d like to keep the old tick guideline the setting was EMA ENVELOPE 50/2.5. This new tick guideline is a TEST ONLY, please don’t trust it yet. (this is the one that Baron von PitBull calls “beating a dead horse”).
Finally, a quick note of TICK trivia: I always have a very thin pink line at tick +600 and tick -600. This is based on the notion that anything inbetween tick +/- 600 is just noise, and the significant tick moves are either above +600 or below -600. I learned that long ago and sorry I don’t remember my source on that one, but I’ve found it to be pretty much true.

Not trying to sound like a know-it-all but....1. VIX options expire Friday so it becomes much less sensitive 2. VIX does indirectly measure fear. Notice near the end of close on Mon how the VIX popped up ? At that same time the USD pierced through resistance and RUT fell below support, that got a reaction from the VIX. But, overall, there isn't much fear in the market right now. So, it's not that the VIX isn't accurate, it's just that the market isn't as scared at the moment. Right now, the VIX won't necessarily behave the way it did after July, it's also under heavy resistance on nearly all time frames.

Of course, I could be wrong, but technicals aren't calling for a big drop at this point as we're staying above the 1187, 1200, 1220 pivots. Just my two cents of what little I know

On a different note, COBRA, thanks for the great board and the nightly reports, they're awesome!

Thanks, and I agree, there's no fear here and it might last awhile.

[Me XMan]

Looks like it going to be one of those days

kitty_treed_bear.jpg

[BullBear52x]

stucap:

above? Screaming buy, either ways I will be light on both direction I am thinking doing nothing by Thursday until new year or daytrade at most unless I got lucky and a head a lot than I might held on something over night.

[BullTart]

Are you guys seeing the dump going on in the Qs? Nasdaq down over 35.

[Me XMan]

FLUSH IT!
I'm going to the gym

[stucap]

stucap:

above? Screaming buy, either ways I will be light on both direction I am thinking doing nothing by Thursday until new year or daytrade at most unless I got lucky and a head a lot than I might held on something over night.

I'm trapped a little short at the moment.. Just looking for a kiss of the daily pivot which should be around 1224.50 ES to get out. But of course, 38.2% retracement decides to be stubborn as all hell and the bulls take charge. Does anyone out there have a good system for determining whether supports/resis will hold or fail?

[Petsamo]

Why are the miners (XME) so excited

[jarbo456]

/CL breakout. I love the USO calls i bought yesterday.

[Al_Dente]

Oil inventories down?
Could one of you cl/oil genies please translate re the effect on spy?

[99er]

Update

NDX http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/ndx_21.html

[jarbo456]

USO is barely covering AMZN...what a piece of crap.

[jarbo456]

Oil inventories down?
Could one of you cl/oil genies please translate re the effect on spy?

...easiest way to think of it is that it'll pull up energy names...aka...SPY largest holding....XOM.

[stucap]

P-Bar SPY TOS 125.12? Anyone want to bet this one gets hit before the ones around 120 from yesterday?

[99er]

Update

EURUSD-ES http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/12/eu-es_21.html

Back test then flush.

[fehro]

not the cleanest pattern

[quientuves]

P-Bar SPY TOS 125.12? Anyone want to bet this one gets hit before the ones around 120 from yesterday?

Well, as i'm traped long i guess we'll try first 1215, once my stops are taken, may be they'll try to go up...

[TWT]

EURUSD: This is not a bullish pattern

[Mr. BachNut]

Still Net Long.
Monday I put 1/2 hedge on. Thankfully, I waited on doing second half.
I took hedge off today for a loss, but happy to be net profitable on yesterday.

If indexes can consolidate today and progress into week's end, I think the evil plan I suggested last Friday looks interesting.
That is an inverse head and shoulders at the end of a mega symetrical triangle comes into view.
This creates a huge problem for all the underperforming professionals out there. They will have to chase exposure.
It could be a beautiful bull trap. Then again, it could turn out to be real...

Market does not seem overbought here, so it can move on up.
I am sufficiently shell shocked from recent moves that I have got stops on to re-hedge if we get surprise breakdown.