Cobra's Market View

Small caps not leading top is near

It seems all clear to me now the $spx is gunning for 1282 before any turn. This will break the previous 2 lower highs thereby fooling everybody before ripping your face off with a nasty downturn. Looks like it will be a choppy move up and we may get one more move back to 1230ish, but that is the plan as I see it. Last two bottoms (late November and this Monday) have been marked by huge gaps up rather than an intra day reversal. I see this generally as a weaker reversal, but don't see anything really cooking on the downside until early January.

Santa rally over after today?

GreedyKojiro wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

GreedyKojiro wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:

GreedyKojiro wrote:Sold all TNA at $45.50 and loaded a small batch of TZA at $26.33 (11 cents shy from 52-week low) on premarket.

I shorted TZA yesterday let see

at what price did you sell?

26.92 well, it's all gone now, waiting for more sign maybe selling financial FAS/FAZ next.

Very nice executions!

TNX turning down what got me to think that this market will not go on much higher BKX is still strong.

Me XMan wrote:Santa rally over after today?

Officially it just starts next week, isn't it true?

CMT wrote:

fehro wrote:or maybe just a little higher 1255? or just explode up?

You've been posting some pretty good charts for awhile now, keep them coming!

Pullback to 1240? green neckline? or lower 50 day?... or a quick strong pop to the 200 day

SPX 200 SMA 1259.36
SPX 50 SMA 1232.50

BullBear52x wrote:TNX turning down what got me to think that this market will not go on much higher BKX is still strong.

Yes, that was what I saw also

As long as Europe up we finish higher,lets see how they close up over 1% now

where is trader vix?

60 minute internals update
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p ... listNum=15

gabor wrote:

Me XMan wrote:Santa rally over after today?

Officially it just starts next week, isn't it true?

I think its the last 4 or 5 trading days in Dec. and the first 2 in Jan.

cobra, is there a bear flag on the dax chart you just posted? Euro is still in trouble, and post christmas and going into new year, we may see eu leaders meeting and talking about more problems. thanks for all you do cobra

a little double top here.

gabor wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:covered TZA, TNX is weaker than usual, something is not right.

I do not understand the rationale behind your TZA short and the arguments behind it. TZA is close to its 52 week low, therefor lets short it. The TZA is linked to $RUT, if the russel index is not about to break out from a resistance, why would you expect TZA to break down and behave independently from RUSSEL. Due to the tracking error it is falling more than $RUT would justify it, but it is still linked to it. It woth shorting on long term anyway, because you can earn the racking error, but this is fairly independent of its TA status.

Shorting TZA is like buying TNA, when I feel the weakness/strength in any sector/indexes I will go at it. as far as 52 week Hi/Lo they mean nothing to me and my style of trading is I don't target or project price of support/resistance, I will react to them. like SPY at the current stage, a resistance, base on my yellow level marked, am I selling it here? No. I shorted TZA since yesterday because I got buy signal on IWM before the close, instead of buying TNA, I picked to short TZA. right now I am doing nothing.

The SC Rally is defined as the last 5 trading days of the year and the first 2 of the New Year. Since the markets are closed on Monday, the 26th, day 1 is tomorrow.

gabor wrote:

Me XMan wrote:Santa rally over after today?

Officially it just starts next week, isn't it true?

Out of tna,left too much on table.I believe we are 1% away from top so market can rally so i can buy cheap tza

Linus wrote:cobra, is there a bear flag on the dax chart you just posted? Euro is still in trouble, and post christmas and going into new year, we may see eu leaders meeting and talking about more problems. thanks for all you do cobra

DAX direction is not clear yet, so I won't say it's a bear flag. It's in a range so far. Euro is weak that's for sure.

The signal for 11 am might be a reversal to the upside. If so keep an eye on 1255, the surge from 1202.30 points to this level, first leg 100%, second leg 61.8%. Happy trading

BullBear52x wrote:

gabor wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:covered TZA, TNX is weaker than usual, something is not right.

I do not understand the rationale behind your TZA short and the arguments behind it. TZA is close to its 52 week low, therefor lets short it. The TZA is linked to $RUT, if the russel index is not about to break out from a resistance, why would you expect TZA to break down and behave independently from RUSSEL. Due to the tracking error it is falling more than $RUT would justify it, but it is still linked to it. It woth shorting on long term anyway, because you can earn the racking error, but this is fairly independent of its TA status.

Shorting TZA is like buying TNA, when I feel the weakness/strength in any sector/indexes I will go at it. as far as 52 week Hi/Lo they mean nothing to me and my style of trading is I don't target or project price of support/resistance, I will react to them. like SPY at the current stage, a resistance, base on my yellow level marked, am I selling it here? No. I shorted TZA since yesterday because I got buy signal on IWM before the close, instead of buying TNA, I picked to short TZA. right now I am doing nothing.

Being a casual scalper I like the 52-week low if you know what I meant...

BullBear52x wrote:

gabor wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:covered TZA, TNX is weaker than usual, something is not right.

I do not understand the rationale behind your TZA short and the arguments behind it. TZA is close to its 52 week low, therefor lets short it. The TZA is linked to $RUT, if the russel index is not about to break out from a resistance, why would you expect TZA to break down and behave independently from RUSSEL. Due to the tracking error it is falling more than $RUT would justify it, but it is still linked to it. It woth shorting on long term anyway, because you can earn the racking error, but this is fairly independent of its TA status.

Shorting TZA is like buying TNA, when I feel the weakness/strength in any sector/indexes I will go at it. as far as 52 week Hi/Lo they mean nothing to me and my style of trading is I don't target or project price of support/resistance, I will react to them. like SPY at the current stage, a resistance, base on my yellow level marked, am I selling it here? No. I shorted TZA since yesterday because I got buy signal on IWM before the close, instead of buying TNA, I picked to short TZA. right now I am doing nothing.

Thanks, for the explanation. I still do not understand the technical point. How do you short TZA? You have to own it, or have to borrow. Is your brokerage is so flexible, or you hold TZA? Buying and selling something is a straitforward transaction. That is why TNA and TZA was created in pairs, just to make things easy. Instead you do the opposite. May be I am too conservative ...