07/25/2012 Live Update

[TraderJoe]

TVIX is moving up steady. fears

im planning to reenter if it can close above hourly resistance.

Do you know that TVIX is broken and does not trade per the market?
TVIX is completely broken and should break down. I have played it and other VIX ETF's up occasionally in a completely Foolish gaming it way, using them for market sentiment measurments. TVIX stopped buying new shares leaving it closed end.

[Al_Dente]

Here is my nurdy chart, well, someone will claim I stole this one too

Who u callin’ “nerdy” ?
That ain’t mine bubba
My charts are sooooo much purtier than yours…..well…….. not counting all the ones I stole from u
such great charts here………every day is like Xmas in CobraLand

ps I don’t ratio VIX with all the shite that u do
However, my favorite new(old) VIX ratio is below
YES U CAN find an intermed-term bearish VIX ratio if u look hard enough
[it’s weekly bubba, so don’t get confused]

[louie]

$VIX

[BullBear52x]

OK here must be a "B"

[heavenskrow]

1st hourly close for TVIX confirmed above resistance. another hourly close above resistance would be great.

[Tabby]

We are going up at least for now.

[BullBear52x]

be safe first my bear friends.

[heavenskrow]

TVIX is moving up steady. fears

im planning to reenter if it can close above hourly resistance.

Do you know that TVIX is broken and does not trade per the market?
TVIX is completely broken and should break down. I have played it and other VIX ETF's up occasionally in a completely Foolish gaming it way, using them for market sentiment measurments. TVIX stopped buying new shares leaving it closed end.

what do you mean by broken? It's definently not a long term hold. And I have seen where ES/Spy goes down hard yet TVIX not go up....
but It treated me well last year 150%+

[brandyjoco]

BullBear - your charts have been right on today. Thanks.

[TraderJoe]

Hi,
From what I read, it trades like a stock, moving with buyers & sellers, not the vix..

[KeiZai]

crude oil oy

[BullBear52x]

Here is my nurdy chart, well, someone will claim I stole this one too

Who u callin’ “nerdy” ?
That ain’t mine bubba
My charts are sooooo much purtier than yours…..well…….. not counting all the ones I stole from u
such great charts here………every day is like Xmas in CobraLand

ps I don’t ratio VIX with all the shite that u do
However, my favorite new(old) VIX ratio is below
YES U CAN find an intermed-term bearish VIX ratio if u look hard enough
[it’s weekly bubba, so don’t get confused]

725vixratio.png

LOL, nice set up.

[uempel]

Al, do you remember your baby... I use it daily
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =250236810

Oy, what a handsome chart
btw: My intraday renko says the flag turned down at downward sloping MA resistance... again
INTRADAY ONLY; CAN CHANGE QUICKLY
[“My” chart stolen from benandlloyd]

The attachment 725renko.png is no longer available

Al, I like your intraday Renko, here a daily with exotic settings - not my idea, but it was love at first sight

PS: What are the settings of your Renko?

[BullBear52x]

BullBear - your charts have been right on today. Thanks.

thanks,

[heavenskrow]

Hi,
From what I read, it trades like a stock, moving with buyers & sellers, not the vix..

yeah it definitely does not track the $VIX 100%. It's like playing with the devil.

[taggard]

This bounce is relieving some oversold condition, which is actually good for the bears.
If we are really getting a turn south here, it would not surprise to see the professionals orchestrate a buy stop run before the next move down.

and maybe this has to do with the fed meeting and the usual "leaks" in wsj and nyt about qe3. what's really key is actually the euro zone stuff--as it is now clearly out of hand (again). what's different this time is the start of the idea that "if the strong guys save the weak guys the strong guy will be dust as a result". (eg the small moves in french and german yields as well as the moody's "super extra secret pre down grade thing" re germany.)

the issue is now that the piece meal thing is looking hopeless (so it's not just fix greece again--it's spain and italy--and eventually (1-3 years-and this rate and the risk is likely to the downside sooner) france.

what i get out of this is any 500 billion fed move is going to not even come close to making a dent in what happens next. if (if) such a move were taken at the same time the next (likely short sighted and ill considered) euro move is made there is much more chance of success (in the sense of closing the market higher in the 4th quarter to keep insurance companies and banks afloat. which is fast becoming the single goal out there as we are looking at longer term issues that cannot be solved the usual way.

bottom line? as a tech guy hearing stuff like "approaching smart phone saturation is a positive for aapl" and "don't worry win 8 will be a real up for intc" going into the fall is not a good thing longer term. what it all sounds like is "pricing pressure" into a far less than optimal global backdrop. (eg look for some action on these events--but look for it to be truncated as compared to the past)

so yeah the idea of a small bounce pre and into fed sounds good. a sell of some sort (unless you see a qe3 thing announced now which sure looks like a mistake unless it is massive (in which case ultimatly it's a mistake). sounds good.

finally if you are one of those thinking qe and the fed will do this or that. seriously consider moderating your view point. the point is closer where what has "worked" is likely to fail. consider these two statments

“We are very committed to ensuring, or at least doing all we can to ensure, that we continue to make progress on unemployment,” he told Congress last week. (Bernanke to congress last week)

“It would be helpful to have a better understanding of how large the Federal Reserve’s participation would have to be to cause a meaningful deterioration in securities market functioning, and of the potential costs of such deterioration for the economy as a whole (sandra pianalto fed reserve cleveland)

the first statement--is far less absolute than past bernanke statements--and reflects what he has been saying for a while which is the fed cannot do it alone. the second statement is re the idea of buying bonds (so qe) and mirrors a statement from the last fed minutes release but is more moderate.

the point is Sandra wants to know "how large all of the coming QE's together can be prior to crashing the global markets". this is serious stuff--at least one (watch out for women who make it in male dominated fields as they are sometimes very sharp) fed person is concerned openly that qe will crash if they do a big enough one to dig stuff out (or a series of fairly decent sized ones)

taken together and esp when coupled with the Euro situation--the inflection moment could be approaching pretty quickly.

[Cobra]

Page wayne0708

I just replied your email and I've been trying to contact you via your email in our record, looks like you blocked all our mails or you didn't check your mail box. Please check now. If you still don't see my mail, then it means you blocked all my mails.

[CarlosDK]

Cobra ,, 3rd leg up beginning ???

[TraderGirl]

Hi,
From what I read, it trades like a stock, moving with buyers & sellers, not the vix..

yeah it definitely does not track the $VIX 100%. It's like playing with the devil.

HK, were you around when the whole TVIX issue happened?? CS stopped supporting the etf, the shares tumbled....

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-0 ... -low-price

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release ... 664061.htm

[CarlosDK]

Looks like we got 2nd move down in markets before 3rd leg higher coming up.