09/29/2012 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

I have the same data as Al, I share his view that fear will push the market higher after a good dip down at the start of the week.

OK.[/quote]

I just remember that Uempel tried to keep us bull all summer (NOT intraday)
B4 he went on that LONG vacation

[Seawaves]

very short term, watch the purple line, if broken, may test 1420 area, which I believe will hold.

Seawaves, pattern suggests further downside before a rally can begin. Some charts point to 1417, my belief (or do I indulge in wishful thinking?) is that the dip will go a bit further, just to encourage the shorts prior to a massive squeeze...

of course, it's also my wishful thinking.

[Cobra]

It’s Sunday, so vote again: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Any questions, ask Etta: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfNLspDL3ns

Thanks.

[Al_Dente]

WDIK
Most of my charts show top zones THAT NEED TESTING
Here’s just one example: the daily renko top zone (NOT INTRADAY)
It likes to zig zag up and down to test the top with a H&S or a double top, or a fail high, or even a bull breakout !!
Tops rarely form a needle top, they like to…. u kno…. bla bla

[Mr. BachNut]

Here is another view of the COT data. This chart maps the commitments of traders in the ES (S&P) future. It is the work of Steve Briese (http://commitmentsoftraders.org/).
It is not the raw data. He looks at net positions relative to historical averages and rates of change in net position.
The current positions of the small traders (green line) and large traders (blue line) are relatively long and the commercials (red line) are relatively short compared to historical averages.
Futures are zero sum (a long for every short) and at the moment, in ES anyway, the investors are about as long as they get and the hedgers/market makers are about as short as they get.
Note how things looked at the October lows in terms of who was long and who was short.
Also note the red histogram, which gauges rate of change in net positions of the commercials. Their shorting has accelerated since the Bernanke move.

I don't view this as a precise timing tool because the data is weekly and trends can continue being extreme.
This doesn't rule out squeezing to a new high in the next week or two.
However, it does show potential energy stored up for a bear move.
The gun looks loaded to me.

It would be interesting to see how this compares with NYSE short interest data. May be it conflicts.

[Mr. BachNut]

I have the same data as Al, I share his view that fear will push the market higher after a good dip down at the start of the week.

OK.

I just remember that Uempel tried to keep us bull all summer (NOT intraday)
B4 he went on that LONG vacation [/quote]

Indeed he did! My bear positions cost me this summer, but my stops were tighter thanks to uempel.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING BARON
off topic: new A/D thingie for INTRADAY ONLY:
Sometimes the advancers $NYADV or the decliners $NYDEC will flatline, making turns hard to read
So overlaying the RATIOS (dotted lines) helps paint a better picture
eg: early Friday $NYDEC showed “bear trend” above 2000, then started to waver
BUT THE RATIO showed the bear deterioration MUCH MORE CLEARLY
This is exactly the kind of visual that I really need smacking my eyeballs, intraday.
[edit: this is 5 min]

[TWT]

weekly dax.
take a look at macd, a breakout would mean dax>8000 else it would go down from here and that was a top

did anyone say anything about that monthly doji on apple?

My view on AAPL

AAPL monthly chart:
We have a textbook shooting star, which is strongly warning that price has completed the up leg off the May lows.

AAPL weekly chart:
Maybe price is unfolding a large Ending Diagonal that could be completed during the first quarter of 2013.
If this terminal pattern is playing out then price now has to overlap below 644 with the wave (IV)

[Mr. T]

Guys and Gals....... this is the same old thing over and over: Get the bears hopeful, and then crush their spirit. The End.

"We're never going down again!!!!!"

[TraderJoe]

Something neat;
OCTOBER HAS 5 MONDAYS, 5 TUESDAYS AND 5 WEDNESDAYS.....HAPPENS ONLY ONCE EVERY 823 YEARS!

[daytradingES]

Seawaves, pattern suggests further downside before a rally can begin. Some charts point to 1417, my belief (or do I indulge in wishful thinking?) is that the dip will go a bit further, just to encourage the shorts prior to a massive squeeze...

Hi Uempel,

Yes I posted 1417 as a support level. (Of course all support levels are only POTENTIAL support levels).

However, when a support level is clear and not too distant, then the manipulators will run through it and catch the sell-stops below it. So if the stops are 8 pts deep, as an example, that is 1417-8=1309 (Es Dec basis).

ES

[BullBear52x]

PAGING BARON
off topic: new A/D thingie for INTRADAY ONLY:
Sometimes the advancers $NYADV or the decliners $NYDEC will flatline, making turns hard to read
So overlaying the RATIOS (dotted lines) helps paint a better picture
eg: early Friday $NYDEC showed “bear trend” above 2000, then started to waver
BUT THE RATIO showed the bear deterioration MUCH MORE CLEARLY
This is exactly the kind of visual that I really need smacking my eyeballs, intraday.
[edit: this is 5 min]

928ADratio.png

Dr. Al, If in doubt look at them separately, that's why I like the old timer classic with 233ma on 1min. ratio. but if they tangled on the Ma, look else where, if you can not make it out some one else will most likely having a hard time translating it also. Doji san eh?

[uempel]

Seawaves, pattern suggests further downside before a rally can begin. Some charts point to 1417, my belief (or do I indulge in wishful thinking?) is that the dip will go a bit further, just to encourage the shorts prior to a massive squeeze...

Hi Uempel,

Yes I posted 1417 as a support level. (Of course all support levels are only POTENTIAL support levels).

However, when a support level is clear and not too distant, then the manipulators will run through it and catch the sell-stops below it. So if the stops are 8 pts deep, as an example, that is 1417-8=1309 (Es Dec basis).

ES

You too Hey, 200'000 chartists scattered over the world are staring at 1417, it's the obvious support level given by the June 5 channel, presumably too obvious...

[uempel]

Bye MrBachnut, I've had enough charts for Sunday

[Mr. BachNut]

Just noticed its a Bradley Turn Date today. Also a full moon is in the neighborhood.

Trader Girl are you out there?

[daytradingES]

You too Hey, 200'000 chartists scattered over the world are staring at 1417, it's the obvious support level given
by the June 5 channel, presumably too obvious...

44.png

I'll have to take your word for the other 199,999.

Sounds like you do a lot of interent reading - looking for guidance.