Cobra's Market View

L_T wrote:

hiram wrote:

L_T wrote:Need to channel some Hussman here for a different perspective (my emphasis added): http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc130122.htm

Fund Notes

As of last week, the market has reestablished the most negative variants of nearly every “overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield” syndromes we follow. Even considering the effect of constructive trend-following measures and continued quantitative easing, we estimate a significantly negative prospective return/risk profile for stocks when the ensemble of present conditions is taken together. With commercial paper yields right near their 10-month average, we know of at least some normally insightful investors who seem willing to hold out for short-term yields to advance 10 or 12 basis points before abandoning a bullish stance. This may very well “keep it simple,” but in view of presently overextended conditions, it also inadvertently risks wandering into “stupid.” Einstein once said that things should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. My impression is that an overreliance on aphorisms like “the trend is your friend” and “don’t fight the Fed” raises the likelihood of overstaying one’s welcome at the point that overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions (particularly on longer-maturity debt) come into play.

hussman has been on the wrong side of the trade for years now his returns are horrible loves to talk alot but not much in the way of results, i wouldnt put much stock in anything he has to say. i believe managers like him are still in shell shock from the crash and are now afraid to trade not to say he was ever a star to begin with. his growth fund is a huge dog!

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/theFunds.html

click link and see for yourself, low fees dont mean much if your loosing money....


Hiram

Agreed his returns are not very good. I also agree that he seems bearish much of the of time. It is more his perspective of the way things are right now that I was pointing out. If I had $XXXXXX on the sideline and was looking to invest (not a quick trade) this is probably not a great time to do it.

TraderGirl wrote:

uempel wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:HeHe....

I agree, but it might be a year or two. Unwinding these huge positions takes some time. I'm expecting a bounce before aapl melts away...

Of course nothing goes down in a straight line...this is just my future objective...maybe lower....but it should'nt be 2 years...more likely year and half....

61% fib retracement from the '09 lows are around $319 and 78% fib retracement is around $214...possibly it ends up somewhere in that range eventually...

Currently we have gap support around 444, and gap fill around 425...

BullBear52x wrote:I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

Harapa wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

No short XIV untill I see red here

Harapa wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:I am all eyes on vixies right now, XIV may get that hourly set up sell signal today. it will be fast once they crossed.

No short XIV untill I see red here

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks, I use simple ma 21 on hourly, on standard chart, no negative MACD were never a good sell, from that point of view the dip will be short live this time around.

Harapa wrote:

BullBear52x wrote:Thanks, I use simple ma 21 on hourly, on standard chart, no negative MACD were never a good sell, from that point of view the dip will be short live this time around.

As you may know I like the Stew
I expect to loose on short side this time .

Al_Dente wrote:So far, this is day three of $VIX non-confirmation

Xian wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:

uempel wrote:

TraderGirl wrote:HeHe....

I agree, but it might be a year or two. Unwinding these huge positions takes some time. I'm expecting a bounce before aapl melts away...

Of course nothing goes down in a straight line...this is just my future objective...maybe lower....but it should'nt be 2 years...more likely year and half....

61% fib retracement from the '09 lows are around $319 and 78% fib retracement is around $214...possibly it ends up somewhere in that range eventually...

Currently we have gap support around 444, and gap fill around 425...

TG and Uempel,

If this $300 objective takes approx 1 1/2 to 2 yrs, that's six - eight quarters. Even if growth falls to zero the company will still be generating about 10-15 billion in cash per quarter, isn't this right?

I'm curious because at $300, you'd have a market cap of approx $275-$280 billion. (assuming every $5 billion of buybacks reducing approx 1% of float) and in 2 yrs cash will be at least $200 billion. (Should hit $150 billion next quarter) — this is of course assuming no increase in dividend.

Wouldn't they just take the company private before the price target was met? Wouldn't they have to?

Thanks very much for the great charts (and everyone else too ).

Don't have the courage to short it, think I'll just forget it until Uempel's $440 range comes into view.

Cobra wrote:chart is bullish biased.

BullBear52x wrote:If you shorting XIV, today, yesterday, or tomorrow. you will make money within 3 months. who can predict that type of out come on anything, but on XIV it will be that simple