03/22/2013 Live Update

[gappy]

Canary in the coal mine IWM ????

No idea.

iwm.png

[gappy]

After prolonged plunge taking it to a fresh loss YTD, Brazil etf EWZ testing its (still upslope) 200day MA. A possible place for a sharp snapback rally if emerging markets in general firm for the day..?

ITUB4:BR Itau Unibanco Holding SA 7.58%
PETR4:BR Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA 7.35%
BBDC4 Banco Bradesco SA 6.29%
VALE5:BR Vale SA 6.18%
AMBV4:BR Companhia de Bebidas das Americas Ambev 5.66%
PETR3:BR Petroleo Brasileiro Petrobras SA 4.57%
VALE3:BR Vale SA 3.77%
BRFS3:BR BRF Brasil Foods SA 3.03%
BVMF3 BM&F Bovespa SA Bolsa de Valores Mercadorias e Futuros 2.56%
CASH Cash†2.52%
Hmmm.....Oil, iron, food-beverage, and banks. A carry trade portfolio.

[fehro]

SPX 60m pink triangle? with in a larger yellow bearish rising wedge?

[gappy]

Europe turning down now. Gee, I feel like Petsamo! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6r4E514nJg

[TraderGirl]

IWM....bull flag?? pos d needs to hold...

[taggard]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/busin ... wanted=all

if you don't get cyprus or "the whole bank thing" here is a very simple easy to read thing by floyd norris. you need only generalize this stuff and you will firmly grasp the problem. and yes it really is this simple. some hi-lites

Consider the following presentation written by Bruno Iksil, the whale himself, on Jan. 26, 2012, as the losses were growing. He called for executing “the trades that make sense.”
He proposed to “sell the forward spread and buy protection on the tightening move,” “use indices and add to existing position,” “go long risk on some belly tranches especially where defaults may realize” and “buy protection on HY and Xover in rallies and turn the position over to monetize volatility.”
That presentation was made to a JPMorgan group called the International Senior Management Group of the Chief Investment Office, which seems to have approved it. If the proposal does not make sense to you, don’t despair. It is largely gibberish.

Nearly two decades ago, one of the great names in international banking, Barings, disappeared. It was destroyed by a fraud committed by Nick Leeson, a trader based in Singapore, who became a star by reporting huge profits from a trading strategy involving derivatives that, by today’s standards, were remarkably simple. In reality, there were no profits, just big losses that he managed to conceal until the firm collapsed. When auditors and bosses asked how he was making all that money, Mr. Leeson later explained, he responded with meaningless but impressive-sounding jargon.
“Luckily for my fraud, there were too many chiefs who would chat about it at arm’s length but never go further,” Mr. Leeson wrote in his memoir. “And they never dared ask me any basic questions, since they were afraid of looking stupid about not understanding futures and options.” Not much has changed.

“My first stress test,” Ms. Admati told me, “is the test of prosecution.” She noted a recent comment by Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general, that some banks were so large that he feared it would “have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy,” if criminal charges were filed against the bank. “If the economy cannot stand them being prosecuted,” she said, “they fail the stress test.”

(1) with no standarized accounting you cannot have understanding (2) without understanding you cannot have any sort of regulation etc. (3) without either understanding or regulation you have madness. (4) place your trades accordingly.

[TraderGirl]

SLV...looks like it could fall here...

[Al_Dente]

4 gappy xian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id7_2FBOtt8

[fehro]

SPX 5m.. H&S? only if it stalls near here... and breaks the neckline down.

[Al_Dente]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/busin ... wanted=all
if you don't get cyprus or "the whole bank thing" here is a very simple easy to read thing by floyd norris. you need only generalize this stuff and you will firmly grasp the problem. and yes it really is this simple. some hi-lites
Consider the following presentation written by Bruno Iksil, the whale himself, on Jan. 26, 2012, as the losses were growing. He called for executing “the trades that make sense.”
He proposed to “sell the forward spread and buy protection on the tightening move,” “use indices and add to existing position,” “go long risk on some belly tranches especially where defaults may realize” and “buy protection on HY and Xover in rallies and turn the position over to monetize volatility.”
That presentation was made to a JPMorgan group called the International Senior Management Group of the Chief Investment Office, which seems to have approved it. If the proposal does not make sense to you, don’t despair. It is largely gibberish.
Nearly two decades ago, one of the great names in international banking, Barings, disappeared. It was destroyed by a fraud committed by Nick Leeson, a trader based in Singapore, who became a star by reporting huge profits from a trading strategy involving derivatives that, by today’s standards, were remarkably simple. In reality, there were no profits, just big losses that he managed to conceal until the firm collapsed. When auditors and bosses asked how he was making all that money, Mr. Leeson later explained, he responded with meaningless but impressive-sounding jargon.
“Luckily for my fraud, there were too many chiefs who would chat about it at arm’s length but never go further,” Mr. Leeson wrote in his memoir. “And they never dared ask me any basic questions, since they were afraid of looking stupid about not understanding futures and options.” Not much has changed.
“My first stress test,” Ms. Admati told me, “is the test of prosecution.” She noted a recent comment by Eric H. Holder Jr., the attorney general, that some banks were so large that he feared it would “have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy,” if criminal charges were filed against the bank. “If the economy cannot stand them being prosecuted,” she said, “they fail the stress test.”
(1) with no standarized accounting you cannot have understanding (2) without understanding you cannot have any sort of regulation etc. (3) without either understanding or regulation you have madness. (4) place your trades accordingly.

EXCELLENT thanks

[Cobra]

volume surge, might see a rebound here, then we'll see.

[Tabby]

Anyone following URTY? Not acting like a 3x today v.s. TNA
Thoughts?

I just saw your questions.
R2K has been in negative zone since 3/15. As price goes up and down MACD histogram has been going lower and lower. I posted a series of numbers of EOD MACD on R2K a couple days ago.

My EOD daily R2k on MACD Histogram on 3/15 was 2.302 and right now is negative 0.320. Big boys have been selling from the top. R2K is good for daytrading now. Frankly when I tried to chart TNA with R2K (meaning superimposing both charts on layout ) , I see when R2K going up , price TNA is higher than what should be. I think since the volume URTY is not as liquid as TNA, you are seeing a difference. Price of TNA should not be based on supply and demand,but somehow I see this behavior all the time that in TNA. R2K is up 0.11 so TNA should be up 0.33 so as URTY but you don't see it.

I don't know what the heck this means regarding URTY,

Maybe the way it calculated it is different
Strategy for ProShares UltraPro Russell2000


The investment seeks daily investment results that correspond to three times (3x) the daily performance of the Russell 2000® Index. The fund invests in securities and derivatives that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should have similar daily return characteristics as three times (3x) the daily return of the index. The index is a float-adjusted, market capitalization-weighted index containing approximately 2000 of the smallest companies in the Russell 3000® Index or approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000® Index, which in turn represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. It is non-diversified...

[Al_Dente]

pc issues, as usual
wait: I see the problem
b back soon

[fehro]

subtle divergence between the DOW and the VIX... and other indexes over the last week. fwiw.

[gappy]

4 gappy xian
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Id7_2FBOtt8

Beatle influencer. Used to my ask my cousins; who's that guy on the motor scooter, white button down and guitar strapped to his back I see runnin round all the time? Him, oh that's just ole Buddy.( Mid 50's Lubbock) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6r4E514nJg

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:38 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/03 ... ay-update/

[Daniel-David]

Gappy wrote.. EWZ as "A carry trade portfolio."

Interesting insight and perhaps a useful way of classifying the ETF.. I'll have to check correlations with other securities generally regarded as part of the 'carry trade' on/off universe... might also have to pay attn to the Brazilian currency..

[Cobra]

rebound as expected, but not strong enough, bulls need do more.

[gappy]

Gappy wrote.. EWZ as "A carry trade portfolio."

Interesting insight and perhaps a useful way of classifying the ETF.. I'll have to check correlations with other securities generally regarded as part of the 'carry trade' on/off universe... might also have to pay attn to the Brazilian currency..

And helpful recent gov't (de)valuation attitude on their fiat.

[TraderGirl]

pc issues, as usual
wait: I see the problem
b back soon

pc oy.png