Cobra's Market View

Watching VIX and watching Tick and thinking something's gotta go...

Mr. BachNut wrote:Watching VIX and watching Tick and thinking something's gotta go...

Which way Are you using Al's Dick box trade rules too.

Eyeballin a rough time series. Time series data have a natural temporal ordering. This makes time series analysis distinct from other common data analysis problems, in which there is no natural ordering of the observations. Maybe headin for a second cup/handle. We will see. (2 day chart)

bored? go sell USO, or stare at this chart that doesn't want to do anything.

xfradnex wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Watching VIX and watching Tick and thinking something's gotta go...

Which way Are you using Al's Dick box trade rules too.

I haven't gotta clue!

Just think eumpel signal may be a live one...

exceeded the mini pullback target, so now bears have a little bit better chance, but still cannot say there won't be another push up.

Or is it, yawn, power hour

Mr. BachNut wrote:

xfradnex wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Watching VIX and watching Tick and thinking something's gotta go...

Which way Are you using Al's Dick box trade rules too.

I haven't gotta clue!

Just think eumpel signal may be a live one...

It almost Eumpel time If we hold here, we will have a lower High. Volume picking up now. Should we wait till 3:30 on the nose to make a move? We are in this blue range.

another push up indeed. higher high is possible considering nowadays Friday usually closes very strong in anticipating good news in the weekend.

Looks like TLT will give another try on the up side here.

Why can't we all get along? Banksters game is to keep eternal strife on the Arabian Peninsula, Iran has 1/3 of all reserves and can pipe it near straight through to China/Russia after the infrastructure is built. How many worlds in our solar system might have such organic oil? Can it be at 300/bbl a decade from now? As the chart below shows, it has been a boom down here for now, but I fear a grave unforgivable cost may be a little down the line. Happy Yom Kipper from Texas to y'all of Jewish faith.

Al_Dente wrote:

rhight wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:TRIN shows volume is flowing into declining stocks
VIX agrees

At the moment, NYUPV > NYDNV and NYADV > NYDEC. The word "proportional" is important when citing TRIN. When TRIN > 1, proportionally more volume is going into declining stocks than advancing stocks. When it is between 0.9 and 1.1, neither side is considered to have a distinct advantage (the battle zone.) If anyone has a better understanding, please comment.
I would also like to discuss your XIV/VXX metric. Please do the algebra and get back me.

Thx boss
Intraday I use the slope of the trin for direction, not just the absolute value.
eg: if trin is > 1 (bear) but it’s slope is clearly moving down (up)…. then it is moving in a bullish (bearish) direction…etc

The XIV/VXX ratio is way tooooo simple for you boss. I slap on an appropriate ma (depends on the timeframe) and it simply answers my question:
Do I want to be long or short? I use SPY/SH in exactly the same way. Sorry, no algebra.
As u well know, RATIOS:
When the line is moving up, the numerator is in charge
When the line is moving down, the denominator is in charge

First, if something works for you, great. I don't want to mess with that. That said, let's look at XIV/VXX.

XIV :: 1/VIX
VXX :: VIX

And so, XIV/VXX :: (1/VIX)/VIX = 1/(VIX x VIX) !!!

Since VXX is an ETN and is not priced inversely to VIX, this won't work out numerically. But the relationship should hold.
To prove that, let's chart it. XIV/VXX should have a positive correlation to 1/VIX, and it does.

Al_Dente wrote:Here are two of my fave VIX ratios, but they are on daily, NOT INTRADAY
Top panel is longer term options [edit: inverted]
Bottom panel is an inversion of the famous Bill Luby ratio. “Everybody” on the net has been yapping about how that turned bull in the last few days
……… but now it’s going a bit soft….FWIW
ps: pls ignore the vertical dashed lines (they are keyed to straight vix)

I keep track of a similar chart from an article I read of his (Bill L) a few years ago.
That said, I don't like to use ETF's or ETN's for deriving technical signals, primarily because of decay. They may work on an intraday basis. And if that's the case, then great. To show the decay and lack of tracking, I made this chart with a couple comments. Happy trading, I don't mean to pick, just having a discussion

JPM first buy the dip on this cycle, if it fails there may be some long term hope for permabears.

Is somebody going to push the button, or they all out drinking?

This price action makes me think Monday morning is going to gap.

Look at XIV

my simple vixies almost trigger sell, but dip will be bought

Mr. BachNut wrote:

xfradnex wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:Watching VIX and watching Tick and thinking something's gotta go...

Which way Are you using Al's Dick box trade rules too.

I haven't gotta clue!

Just think eumpel signal may be a live one...

Everything stable. Time for me to stop thinking...and tick watching...not my thing.

well, 3rd push was short lived. I'm neutral here as 9 min to close now.