Cobra's Market View

Royal Flush wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:
I think it is a 5 day total not average. You would use an average of 0.8 as a threshold.

I have some experience (read scar tissue) on this.
I have found that win rates on this are dramatically different depending on whether you are in a bull trend or bear trend.
The signal has good tradeable odds in a bear trend, but it is a coin flip in a bull trend IMO.
That said, it is worth keeping an eye on in a bull trend because the times it does work (52%) are often at highs/tops.

Thanks for the detail Mr. BachNut: won't the times it does work always be at highs/tops? I presume you mean that the probability of it working is lower if below a prior high or not a long way up in a leg off a recent bottom.

Al_Dente wrote:This just in from the OY Department:
“Market Bears Are Warning That Stocks Will Shoot Straight Up...Ironically, many of the bulls are warning of a correction before the next leg of the rally.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/richard- ... ks-2013-11

Al_Dente wrote:General Bonkers says FXI China went bonkers-up on the open, finally now a bit soft, but still really trying to hold bonky.

The attachment gen bonkers.png is no longer available

Al_Dente wrote:BB52x:
Boss, just buy her another diamond, already
http://e.businessinsider.com/view/52349 ... 5/c95b194a

Denali92 wrote:SLOW DAY - means a RESEARCH DAY!

Just for FUN - this is the NARROWEST RANGE SO FAR in the SPY on Opex Day since 2007

Others:

Aug 12 .44 - Minor top on the Tuesday after
Mar 12: .48 - Minor top on the Monday after
Feb 07: (pre holiday) .53 - MAJOR TOP on the Thursday after
Feb 11 (pre holiday): .63 Major top on Opex Day
Jan 12: .63 - Minor top on the Monday after
Feb 12 (pre holiday) .67Minor top on the Tuesday after

Means 1 of two things - the range will expand later today

or we will sit here and make fresh highs next week until the market gets bored and we pull back about 2.5 SPY pts....

What I was surprised to discover is that 23 of the opex days (out of 83) since 2007 have had ranges of less than 1 pt in the SPY.

Anyway - silly research..... but thought people might enjoy!

-D

Mr. BachNut wrote:

Royal Flush wrote:

Mr. BachNut wrote:
I think it is a 5 day total not average. You would use an average of 0.8 as a threshold.


Sorry. I may not have been clear.
In an uptrend (as defined by my composite trend signal which is intermediate term in nature), I have been able to craft a setup based on 5 day average TRIN that profits about 1/2 the time.
Sometimes the wins catch a top and pay well. Sometimes they just catch a small dip in the trend and pay peanuts. The asymmetry is not great against losers with a functional stop loss.
It could well be a problem with my setup. A clever swing trader may better figure this one out.
In a downtrend, my numbers are different, perhaps because the Force is with me.
I nonetheless find this signal is right enough to keep it on the radar.
Cobra has mentioned a 2% drop possibility. A TRIN warning is another data point consistent with that possibility.

Al_Dente wrote:General Bonkers says FXI China went bonkers-up on the open, finally now a bit soft, but still really trying to hold bonky.

gen bonkers.png