Cobra's Market View

VIX 15m

DumbMoney wrote:Is there anyone care about gold?I find that GLD was open at a very interesting place today.
I think it's a good place for short,but just for a try with a micro MGC position,because DumbMoney don't have too much money,lol~

Gold is behaving like Markets did last year, chugging up with very little downside so far this year.
It has been above the 10/20sma for 50 days in a row.

This forum is nothing without MYAGI's POWER HOUR !

near close, now let's see who's chicken. for now chart pattern favor bears.

Cobra wrote:near close, now let's see who's chicken. for now chart pattern favor bears.

Bulls chicken, they pawn house and snowblower wife and kids and now they buy, buy, buy

rhight wrote:
My problem, if I may share, is that I've mismanaged my account, and so if I allowed my short to be stopped out in the money on a move above the 20dma, then I couldn't re-enter a substantial position of any kind for 3 days (3 day rule is getting me here) (stop placed, but I'm hoping it doesn't trip) ; Price wise it wouldn't be without precedent if we formed a larger top, in the 45 point range that we are in now ; That would take at least 3 days, and I wouldn't want to carry a short back up to the top ; On the other hand, it would be just my luck to get stopped out and then miss a continuation lower for a larger gain ; Usually I only take half or third positions to preserve flexibility, but screwed up this time I could bore you some more, but I'm going to quit now

You describe the essential dilemma of what I call the "no easy for bears principle." While a first move down can provide a nice return, it is the continuation (if there is one) that often provides the asymmetric return for the risk taken. However, to capture the continuation, the bear must either a) endure a painful drawdown (perhaps roundtripping and giving up all profit) or b) deftly profit stop out and re-enter later after the mark-up (which sounds easy but is really quite hard to call well unless you are trading in the zone and perhaps working the night shift in the after-hours market).

I've tried the latter, and, but for a few lucky instances, found that I tend to over-trade, get psychological/emotional whiplash and experience leakage on the bottom line.
Others on this site seem much more adept working in and out of the zigs and zags than I.

For me, the stats have worked out better over time if I try to hold through the pain. One asymmetric winner seems to pay for the round trips and losers over the course of a trading year.
I just end up looking like a dummy some times on Cobra's Market View when a winner turns into a round trip.
You have to be clear about your exit criteria though so you can hang in when the anxiety builds and be disciplined with your stop if it doesn't work out.

Sometimes also I have a separate alternate setup that allows me to counter trade and hedge against the bounce. Though I also feel funny when I am both long and short.

Good luck with this. We're all trying to figure out what works cause there ain't gonna be no easy for bears in a bull market.

Crude volatility/SPX correlation back to norms. Japan's big expense is oil.

GUESS the chart:
Russia

MICEX http://www.micex.com/marketdata/analysi ... period=-1d

I don't think Putin thought this through.

Folks who are used to an afternoon rip and close near the highs Friday before OPEX week may be experiencing a little cognitive dissonance.

Al_Dente wrote:PAGING KENA "The Dome King"
Boss do u c anything here?

314dome_png.png

Sorry for the delay, been away from the computer.. Yes but I may be wrong but on the longer term domes it does look like the mkt will continue down,I'm somewhat bearish right now..If the Fed would pull back we just might have a good pull back. Stocktiming is bearish and is saying big pull back is knocking at the door. But he is very conservative.

SPX 60m.. gap down into support/ necklines... then bounce on Monday after the referendum? .. Crimea secedes to Russia.. then back to .. economic problems for the right shoulder

2 hour.

guess that's it for today. Monday is a little bit bear friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

Al_Dente wrote: Boss which pm u love/hate?

Al, really choices are very limited. Since 10 for 1 stock splits in nugt, agq, options are expensive and hard to ~play~ in this uber manipulated market.
GDX is best; RGLD; SLW; but sometimes they lag or even front run gold/silver moves; lots of saucy theta/time decay if it goes against you even a day. GLD,SLV follow the metals per se best. [p.s.note - these are NOT investment items as the COMEX vault is seriously down to bare bones] I, once again, missed RGLD's lovely $$ as I was busy shorting a hyperactive biotech (made a little). Yes, I agree once again price is beautifully up pre-market hours and now indicators are threatening rain and hail. Market indices, dollar, bonds, oil, yen, Aussie, seem to change/influence PM sentiment most inconsistently. Al, since I don't even know if TOS can do one of your fancy multiple comparison charts here's a SLW for ya. Note we're @ the 38% fib - make or break. If you're not too shy to share, how/which do you like/dislike?

Thanks for the feedback

For extra confusion there is a full moon on March16th. Usually marks a change in trend for a few days, however there are never any guarantees.