Cobra's Market View

With the Fed touting ending of QE, then ECB QE is a done deal for June to supply the markets with their much needed drug (QE cash):

Fed bond buying should end in October: By Greg Robb WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said Friday that he supports the central bank ending its bond- buying program in October with a final reduction of $15 billion. The Fed has been reducing the pace of its asset purchases by $10 billion per meeting this year, which would leave a balance of $15 billion by the policy meeting in late October. There is a debate among economists about whether the Fed would decide to end the program in October or extend it until December. It is not an arcane technicality because the central bank is not expected to even contemplate tightening until after the asset purchases have been completed. In a speech to community bankers in New Orleans, Fisher, a consistent critic of the program, said the central bank couldn't speed up the pace of the taper because markets are "somewhat addicted to our accommodation of their needs." Fisher made fun of the market's fixation on the "dot chart," the graphic that lays out forecasts of the Fed's benchmark interest rate by all members of the Fed's policy committee. "Some analysts practically worship the dots. They have become analytical idols around which a doxology of sorts has developed," he said. Fisher, who is a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year, cautioned that the forecasts are little more than "best guesses" and that the composition of Fed voters has been in flux. "Surely economists of high repute are aware of the imperfections of this exercise...we, on the Fed policy committee, certainly are," he said.

"To Infinity and Beyond!"

Out of Bounds wrote:Watch the USD/JPY ...

Boss:
USD/JPY is the green line
Do u mean that is bull spy or wha?

it always does.

Thanks L_T - great stuff, but the problem with Bespoke is the amount of information, makes me dizzy.
I don't have the time to read everything, the staff of assistants to evaluate everything nor the programs to optimize my investing/trading. So I'm often quite happy not to have all the information I try to focus on the technical aspects and forget the rest - but fundamental analysis does creep in now and then.

vol surge, may see pullback here which likely would be bought.

SPX 5m.. fill the inter day gap.. support on red .. push up to to 61.8%? top channel?

uempel wrote:Thanks L_T - great stuff, but the problem with Bespoke is the amount of information, makes me dizzy.
I don't have the time to read everything, the staff of assistants to evaluate everything nor the programs to optimize my investing/trading. So I'm often quite happy not to have all the information I try to focus on the technical aspects and forget the rest - but fundamental analysis does creep in now and then.

There's definitely something to be said for turning off "news feeds" and going for pure chart action. I tend to use the markets etc. as a source of infotainment as well as something to make $$$ from.

SPX 5m .. VIX 15m holding support with this pullback in SPX

fehro wrote:SPX 5m .. VIX 15m holding support with this pullback in SPX

today fear not regain a green line again. what a mess here. this is why it's only good for confirmation not for trading.

BB52x:
So do you use SPY $188.06-ish as a stop, or do you give it more breathing room?

SPX 5m...

And just like that, back to red.

Al_Dente wrote:

Out of Bounds wrote:Watch the USD/JPY ...

Boss:
USD/JPY is the green line
Do u mean that is bull spy or wha?

59usd jpy_png.png

Sorry, I stepped away....

USD/JPY up -> SPY up. It's a nice carry trade. Borrow Yen, buy SPY. When it works, profits are huge and are plowed back in.
The unwinding can be ugly though, traders use currency options to hedge.

BullBear52x wrote:

fehro wrote:SPX 5m .. VIX 15m holding support with this pullback in SPX

today fear not regain a green line again. what a mess here. this is why it's only good for confirmation not for trading.

yes I agree confirmation of the strength of the move / support / resistance.. or if something underlying that's not showing up in price at the moment.

While market is just doodling, I harvested a few quotes for y'all. Really though you here are my favorite daytrading comics.:
Armstrongeconomics:
One of our Texan readers reminds us about the Mexican Independence was indeed – a Sovereign Debt Default. “Monday was Cinco de Mayo which Texans celebrate more than Mexicans. Little known fact that the war had its beginnings when the Mexicans declared a moratorium on foreign debt for two years. The British and Spanish negotiated a settlement, yet the French led by Napoleon III, chose to conquer Mexico instead. It is always about taxes and interest.”
Chartramblings:
Thursday, 8 May 2014
a humble attempt to count squiggles,almost certainly wrong
pretzelcharts:
During the last few weeks, trading SPX has been the equivalent of playing a game of Whack-a-Mole, as it continues to head-fake its way to nowhere. A few weeks ago, I wrote about why I felt this market called for patience, and nothing has changed since then -- ultimately, we have to respect that we're still stuck inside a three-month-long trading range.

Trading ranges frequently wreak havoc on trader psychology (and on trader accounts), and over the past few weeks I've watched some bears turn bullish, and some bulls turn bearish. Traders often let their imaginations run wild inside trading ranges, as they grow more and more anxious waiting for the next directional break. Of course, sometimes we want to ignore the fact that directional breaks may remain delayed for a long time, as the market reserves the right to continue grinding sideways for as long as it wants.
It will be interesting to see if, at some point in the future, we look back on the SPX trading range as a giant distribution zone.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-0 ... paring-war Jim Sinclair rather confirms this in today's post: "As part of the maneuvers, a Topol intercontinental ballistic missile launched from the Plesetsk launch pad in northwestern Russia successfully hit a designated target on the Kura testing range on the far eastern Kamchatka peninsula, the military said.

Two nuclear submarines of the Northern and Pacific Fleets, the Tula and the Podolsk, also fired intercontinental ballistic missiles.........What is happening in the Ukraine is not a short term anomaly, but the first major battle in the new and highly economic method of warfare."
And a 4 hour /ES . I've a sneaky feeling we get red again soon, maybe Monday.?

Al_Dente wrote:BB52x:
So do you use SPY $188.06-ish as a stop, or do you give it more breathing room?

What time frame? Intraday is 188.04 will be a stop.

Index dailies... VIX weak, ... should be an interesting close.. or just flat with a bunch of dojis.

Auole wrote:While market is just doodling, I harvested a few quotes for y'all. Really though you here are my favorite daytrading comics.:
Armstrongeconomics:
One of our Texan readers reminds us about the Mexican Independence was indeed – a Sovereign Debt Default. “Monday was Cinco de Mayo which Texans celebrate more than Mexicans. Little known fact that the war had its beginnings when the Mexicans declared a moratorium on foreign debt for two years. The British and Spanish negotiated a settlement, yet the French led by Napoleon III, chose to conquer Mexico instead. It is always about taxes and interest.”
Chartramblings:
Thursday, 8 May 2014
a humble attempt to count squiggles,almost certainly wrong

Karl Marx: "all war is economic in nature".

Out of Bounds wrote: USD/JPY up -> SPY up. It's a nice carry trade. Borrow Yen, buy SPY. When it works, profits are huge and are plowed back in.
The unwinding can be ugly though, traders use currency options to hedge.

thx boss

These are no Gann rhomboids, but Gann is the parent of all grid systems. Gann's rhomboids are isosceles, these rhomboids are slanting. Doesn't mean they don't work. One of the best TA tools