10/12/2015 Live Update

[uempel]

Next move should be quite powerful - like the start of a F ...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUCrWgGO1yE

[TraderJoe]

Underwhelming earnings, the federal debt limit deadline and a looming Federal Reserve rate increase will prevent the S&P 500 from posting a fourth-quarter rally, says Goldman Sachs.

[Out of Bounds]

SOLD SPY 201.57

See y'all tomorrow

[fehro]

USO/Crude; is this just a one day drop? Anyone?

/CL -oil 200d tag on Friday, now a quick shake-out/profit taking/ re-enter.. and 20d tag... then go again?... support 46.35 20d. $USD still looks weak on the verge of a "death cross" , but could bounce and do at 50d/200d tag DXY- $USD - hammer today?

[Al_Dente]

Next move should be quite powerful - like the start of a F ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUCrWgGO1yE

TODAY:
Ferrari's initial public offering of 17 million shares will value the company at approximately $9.8 billion.
The offering is said to price Ferrari's stock at $48 to $52 per share, raising $894 million.
Ferrari will trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker RACE.

[MrMiyagi]

Thanks Fehro, USO at 10sma support today, 20sma is at $15.

[Trades with cats]

SoGen and Goldman, according to Zerohedge, are saying we haven't had a short squeeze like this since 2009. To me that is yet another mark saying we must consider bear market rules.

So if Crude, Copper, Zinc, Iron etc can't move up without the big squeeze than you know the bottom isn't in yet.

On copper the guy from Rio Tinto (same firm that ordered 4 bulk carriers at the absolute top of the market because they thought they were paying too much to move iron ore pellets from Brazil to China, just saying their predictions don't always work) said on Bloomberg that they are trying to grab Glencore's market share. Claiming copper is down because people are using it as a proxy to short China. So they are playing Saudi Arabia in the minerals space in a bid to push higher cost operators out of the market.

My bottom line in commodities is no bottom until we see significant bankruptcies and capacity shut down, not just transferred to new owners. If that is followed by the world economy improving it will be a generational boom, but it's going to be a while.

[Trades with cats]

I recently read that the model of Ferrari most frequently used as a daily driver is the California. It is also the model most frequently snubbed by collectors because it is too tame. The way the auto industry is going these gas powered collector cars are going to be like expensive film camera's in a couple of decades, interesting but completely eclipsed by the new (electric) technology.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/10 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow has been generally bear friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Tutti]

I recently read that the model of Ferrari most frequently used as a daily driver is the California. It is also the model most frequently snubbed by collectors because it is too tame. The way the auto industry is going these gas powered collector cars are going to be like expensive film camera's in a couple of decades, interesting but completely eclipsed by the new (electric) technology.

The California has some odd design elements too. I've also heard the derisions from the Ferraristi, but then again the Dino was HATED when it came out and now its loved.

The rally in collectibles is absurd. It ends badly just like 2007 for house flippers. Guys are buying up cars just flip them and sooner or later the music will end. Look at the prices of air cooled Porsches over the last 2 years. Insane and they are mass produced.

As long as guys like speed and loud sounds and the smell of gasoline, collectibles will have a life. That said, lots of folks think this is the last generation of guys who will own them...

[fehro]

yup that's a big vol day .. .. holiday vol

[MrMiyagi]

Ferraris are nice, but if I ever was rich, I would rent a Lotus Esprit Turbo for a few days.

Buying a supercar is for chumps, I would rather donate that money to an animal shelter.

let

1761.png (67.8 KiB) Viewed 5087 times

[Al_Dente]

We really need a fresh high today, otherwise we are faulked
$201.91 would do the trick

Earnings: Johnson & Johnson reports pre-open tomorrow, Tuesday
CSX, INTC, and JPM report after tomorrow’s close.

looks like the close is a bit shy
dang, i'll have to wait until tomorrow to see if we are truly faulked or not
long until wrong

[Trades with cats]

Still, for many years my brother had a 1959 Alfa. When it was running (very rare event) oh man did it sound good!

[Junior Buffett]

XIV made a HOD
Why can’t SPY?

Sell the SPY while you push the insurance cost down VXX.. and buy it cheaper... win/win..

Thats what it looks like..VIX down big with S&P hardly moved..case of classic manipulation..

No manipulation on XIV
XIV up, SPY up not as much just means that the futures-VIX traders (XIV) are more bullish on spy than the cash spy folks are

ELSEWHERE FWIW
QQQ desperately needs to make a new high here to avoid a 5min H&S

Boss, even spot VIX is down almost 5%..explain that

[Al_Dente]

Speaking of antiques and collectibles (instead of cars)
Here’s art:

[Al_Dente]

Boss, even spot VIX is down almost 5%..explain that

VIX -5.33%
XIV +6.34%
Looks okay to me
PLUS: VIX futures went back into contango yesterday, after being in backwardation for at least 11 days.
Contango gives a boost to XIV and other short-VIX products

CONTANGO = when the front month VIX-futures contract is lower (cheaper than) than the second month contract. Contango favors XIV and other short VIX vehicles. Estimates are that contango exists about 70-80% of the time in a primary bull market.
Only the closing price counts, as it is at the close each day that a small portion of the front month contracts are “rolled” (sold) and the second month contracts are bought.
BACKWARDATION = when the front month VIX-futures contract is higher (more expensive) than the second month contract. Backwardation is rare, and it favors VXX, UVXY and other long VIX vehicles.

[Al_Dente]

JUNIOR BUFFETT:
Can you restate your question, maybe I didn’t understand it?
Are you looking for SPY to be up the same percentage as VIX is down?
no no

[josephli]

JUNIOR BUFFETT:
Can you restate your question, maybe I didn’t understand it?
Are you looking for SPY to be up the same percentage as VIX is down?
no no

Pasta boss, VIX/XIV/VXX action today may be just volatility squeeze. per CBOE info, https://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf, VIX is weighted price of out of money options, and with volatility dropping VIX get squeezed. therefore it may or may not indicate price action.