01/16/2016 Weekend Update

[BullBear52x]

Home builders are slow and in decline.

[uempel]

Kojiro, I like your weekly chart showing the lower trend line. As to the assumptions for rebounds - of course they are speculative. I'm looking at the SPX 1823 level next Thursday as a possible support. Everything else god only knows.

What's on my mind at the moment is the Chinese data, which is due in six and a half hours, 9:00 p.m. Monday EST (Tuesday 10:00 a.m in Shanghai)

[BullBear52x]

And.....why I am after energy and materials, they are true bottom once they turned.

[BullBear52x]

Lastly, bottom fisher, GLD was doing good since my last post on it, buy above 101. stops are in.....emotions are out! Peace!

[BullBear52x]

One more, PLANaTrade AND TraDeTHEplaN

Short term 61.8% is a major resistance, intraday high right now is at 38.2% @1887, 50% @ 1896, and 61.8% @ 1905, bulls need to over come all this for thing to change for a better.

it is what it is......intraday is buy to challenge papa bears at 61.8%.

[MrMiyagi]

TSX ended down again.

[fehro]

it keep me wonder why you guys spend more time on ZH than bloomberg? presumably bloomberg has much better contents.

Always good to balance the rosy take vs the dire view.

With the topic of distress among U.S. oil and gas exploration and production companies becoming more important with every passing day that oil not only continues to drop, but certainly fails to rebound to levels that allow US energy companies to return to a cash flow positive state, we would like to show just how much debt is at stake. …. The combined debt of these 80 companies is $325 billion. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... 25-billion

And some nice charts on Bull/Bear ratios of AAII from JPM, just a couple of several below. fwiw.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-1 ... l-any-rips

[tsf]

PIMCOVerified account ‏@PIMCO Jan 18

Higher #oil prices ahead? Why today’s narrative might not be as bleak as it seems.

Data shows that U.S. production of #oil is slipping sharply.




Why prices may rise:

3 factors point to higher #oil prices:
refinery margins
#WTI premium,
spreads between prompt-month and l-t contracts

Read full article at: pim.co/X8geH

[josephli]

PIMCOVerified account ‏@PIMCO Jan 18

Higher #oil prices ahead? Why today’s narrative might not be as bleak as it seems.

Data shows that U.S. production of #oil is slipping sharply.




Why prices may rise:

3 factors point to higher #oil prices:
refinery margins
#WTI premium,
spreads between prompt-month and l-t contracts

Read full article at: pim.co/X8geH

good stuff. but iran is going to bring online another 1M barrel/day, it seems that us oil does not drop fast enough to change the fundamental

[DellGriffith]

To me this is mostly about China.

China is releasing lots of important data at 9PM eastern tonite:

http://i.imgur.com/qtISWfw.png

[Al_Dente]

Glenn Frey, R.I.P.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDNtqy0zjJA

[DellGriffith]

spx500 on tradingview just went vertical.

[fehro]

Tradingview's SPX500 CFD Daily ~/ES-ish … trying to hold this level.. so far.. multi possible neckline for the bearish inclined take your pick, cyan, pink, yellow "IF" they play.. out. .near term resistance with heavy overhead supply vol. wise 1910. Mind Fri's AM gap SPX 1916-1920.

As per 1850 target..viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1907&p=210792&hilit ... rt#p210792 pretty close to tag last week, if this is a wave 3.. not sure if it's done, or near a wave 4 bounce (dead cat bounce) .. if that's the case.. lows aren't in, nor is this pink neckline the "right" one. fwiw.

[Out of Bounds]

Twitter:

"BREAKING: China Q4 GDP +6.8 y/y, in line with Reuters estimates. 2015 GDP +6.9% y/y vs +7.3% y/y in 2014
Share"
-Nyshka Chandran

[fehro]

Twitter:

"BREAKING: China Q4 GDP +6.8 y/y, in line with Reuters estimates. 2015 GDP +6.9% y/y vs +7.3% y/y in 2014
Share"
-Nyshka Chandran

umm seems a point short

[Out of Bounds]

Twitter:

"BREAKING: China Q4 GDP +6.8 y/y, in line with Reuters estimates. 2015 GDP +6.9% y/y vs +7.3% y/y in 2014
Share"
-Nyshka Chandran

umm seems a point short

Most banks had already lowered their numbers:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/18/china-gd ... arket.html

[fehro]

reaction subdue.. SPX500 60m/15m

[tsf]

Source:
FORBES
Gordon G. Chang ‏@GordonGChang Jan 18, 2016 40 minutes ago

It’s comedy hour in Beijing.
#China reports 6.9% GDP growth in 2015.
Seriously? Actual rate more like 1%.

See this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang ... 0dac2e750a

Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its first estimate of 2015 gross domestic product.

Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday said growth last year came in around 7% for 2015, which was his target, announced last March.

Analysts polled by Reuters peg growth at 6.9%, which would be the lowest rate in 25 years.

Indicators for the year, however, point to a number in the low single digits, perhaps 1%.

In 2007, when Li was Communist Party secretary of Liaoning province, he told a visiting American diplomat that Beijing’s figures were “man-made,” politically directed and therefore unreliable.
He said he looked at three factors when trying to understand what the economy was really doing: electricity consumption, rail freight volume, and bank lending.

So what does the “Li Keqiang Index,” as these factors are now known, tell us? The usage of electricity remains the most reliable single indicator of Chinese economic activity.
In the first 11 months of 2015, electricity consumption increased 0.7%.

Rail freight volume fell 10.5% in 2015, according to Caixin, which cited the National Railway Administration.

New renminbi loans last year, according to the People’s Bank of China, amounted to 11.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.81 trillion yuan from 2014.
Foreign-currency loans in 2015 fell $50.2 billion. In 2014, such loans increased $58.2 billion.

[josephli]

Source:
FORBES
Gordon G. Chang ‏@GordonGChang Jan 18, 2016 40 minutes ago

It’s comedy hour in Beijing.
#China reports 6.9% GDP growth in 2015.
Seriously? Actual rate more like 1%.

See this:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang ... 0dac2e750a

Tuesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases its first estimate of 2015 gross domestic product.

Premier Li Keqiang on Saturday said growth last year came in around 7% for 2015, which was his target, announced last March.

Analysts polled by Reuters peg growth at 6.9%, which would be the lowest rate in 25 years.

Indicators for the year, however, point to a number in the low single digits, perhaps 1%.

In 2007, when Li was Communist Party secretary of Liaoning province, he told a visiting American diplomat that Beijing’s figures were “man-made,” politically directed and therefore unreliable.
He said he looked at three factors when trying to understand what the economy was really doing: electricity consumption, rail freight volume, and bank lending.

So what does the “Li Keqiang Index,” as these factors are now known, tell us? The usage of electricity remains the most reliable single indicator of Chinese economic activity.
In the first 11 months of 2015, electricity consumption increased 0.7%.

Rail freight volume fell 10.5% in 2015, according to Caixin, which cited the National Railway Administration.

New renminbi loans last year, according to the People’s Bank of China, amounted to 11.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.81 trillion yuan from 2014.
Foreign-currency loans in 2015 fell $50.2 billion. In 2014, such loans increased $58.2 billion.

man, gordon chang, has been permabear on china since linke 1998. take it with grain of salt.

[fehro]

Crazy rumor I'm hearing tonite is the price of gas has dropped to 49 cents in the state of Michigan in some places.

gas buddy has it at $1.38 in Michigan.
http://www.michigangasprices.com/

ALWAYS buy the rumour sell the news!

Gas prices are tumbling around the country -- but things got a little out of hand in Michigan this weekend.

At least three gas stations in the Houghton Lake region engaged in a price war that briefly let drivers pay less than 50 cents a gallon on Sunday.

If the stations were looking for attention for their low prices, they got it.

Prices at the Beacon & Bridge Market went as low as 47 cents a gallon after starting the day at $1.77, according to GasBuddy, a service that allows users to track gas prices.

"It was crazy. The police were directing traffic. Totally insane," one Beacon & Bridge Market employee told CNNMoney. The employee confirmed the 47-cent price but asked to remain anonymous.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/18/investi ... ey_markets