02/29/2016 Live Update

[JFR]

A big retreat ...

Done for the day.

[fehro]

SPX trying to close >50d 1941.92

[fehro]

SPX says doji.. SPY says hammer.. trust SPX more.. fwiw.. Monthlies..

[MrMiyagi]

Intraday NYMO down to +71.63.

[fehro]

SPX d/60m.. either support, or crack it.. support daily/60m.. * large gap up or down tomorrow… as per usual

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Tuesday tomorrow as well as the very first trading day of month has been generally bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Daniel]

Strong (1%+) gains in both hi yield ETFs (JNK, HYG) so far today.

[Daniel]

The Dow ($INDU) leads........... right?

In many environments, yes. And in some seasonal periods, decidedly not.

[Daniel]

UUP 7th green Elder-bar in a row. Back up to an early/mid-December level.

In conjunction with strong hi-yield, and IWM intraday RS... is the market starting to comment on US economic strength being better than anticipated in the coming quarter?

[Flacon]

10:03 AM 2/29/2016
Levels 29-Feb
Breakout= 1975.00
BuyStop= 1956.25
Est High= 1952.25
Resistance= 1984.25
6pts<High= 1946.25
SABB= 1938.00
Est Mid = 1945.00
6pts>Low= 1929.50
Est Low= 1923.50
Support= 1945.75
SellStop= 1919.50
Breakdown= 1914.00
Est H-L dif= 28.75

Great estimates. Reached the low of 1926.75. I traded CFD of ES March (paper account) with insights from your estimates and made 15% return (one trade from 1947.83 down to 1933.18). The CFD demo account i used allowed for 5.25% margin & i bought 50 units. It required $6923 to buy that many units.
(CFD= Contract For Difference). Just learning about CFD in the process.

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[daytradingES]

10:03 AM 2/29/2016
Levels 29-Feb
Breakout= 1975.00
BuyStop= 1956.25
Est High= 1952.25
Resistance= 1984.25
6pts<High= 1946.25
SABB= 1938.00
Est Mid = 1945.00
6pts>Low= 1929.50
Est Low= 1923.50
Support= 1945.75
SellStop= 1919.50
Breakdown= 1914.00
Est H-L dif= 28.75

Great estimates. Reached the low of 1926.75. I traded CFD of ES March (paper account) with insights from your estimates and made 15% return (one trade from 1947.83 down to 1933.18). The CFD demo account i used allowed for 5.25% margin & i bought 50 units. It required $6923 to buy that many units.
(CFD= Contract For Difference). Just learning about CFD in the process.

Thanks Flacon

These were made before open - but I was late in posting them
I actually adjusted my high to 1956 for myself a little later.
If you noticed this happening ie. that the first end (FE) was different from the estimate, the you can make a second estimate of the low second end( SE) as follows:
1956.25 (actual high)- 28.75= 1927.50 est SE

I call this the range rule (so if you see me mention "range rule" you know what I am speaking of.

Once again thanks for your support.

-Monday 29 Feb--
High Est 1952.25
Actual High 1956.25
Dif= -4.00
Low Est 1923.50
Actual Low 1926.50
Dif= -3.00

[daytradingES]

7:27 AM 3/1/2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.88%) are up +0.74% and European stocks are up +1.04% at a 3-1/2 week high on expectations that global central banks will increase stimulus to spur economic growth. New York Fed President Dudley said that he is "somewhat less confident" that inflation will reach the Fed's target as "downside risks have crept up." His comments signal the Fed may wait further before they raise interest rates again. European stocks also found support after the Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in more than 4 years. Global stocks shrugged off the negative Chinese economic data that showed the China Feb manufacturing PMI contracted at its steepest pace in 7 years. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.37%, Hong Kong +1.55%, China +1.68%, Taiwan +0.89%, Australia +0.85%, Singapore +0.60%, South Korea closed for holiday, India +3.38%. Asian markets reacted positively to Monday's action from the PBOC to cut banks' reserve requirement ratios that was done after Asian markets closed on Monday.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.04% at a 3-1/2 week high. EUR/USD ^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is up +0.37%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.10%) are down -2 ticks.

New York Fed President Dudley said that he is "somewhat less confident" that inflation will reach the Fed's 2.0% target over time as "downside risks have crept up." He added that a continuing decline in energy, commodity prices may signal "greater and more persistent" deflationary pressure in the global economy.

The Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 10.3%, stronger than expectations of unch at 10.4% and the lowest in 4-1/3 years.

The China Feb manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.4 to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) revised-Feb Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected +0.2 to 51.2, preliminary-Feb -1.4 to 51.0), (2) Feb ISM manufacturing index (expected +0.3 to 48.5, Jan +0.2 to 48.2) (3) Jan construction spending (expected +0.4%, Dec +0.1% m/m), and (4) Feb total vehicle sales (expected 17.70 million, Jan 17.46 million).

There are 4 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: AutoZone (consensus $7.28), Dollar Tree (1.07), Medtronic (1.06), Ross Stores (0.64).

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.88%) this morning are up +14.25 points (+0.74%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.81%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on weak U.S. economic reports that included the unexpected -2.5% m/m drop in U.S. Jan pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 2 years) and the -8.0 point decline in the Feb Chicago PMI to 47.6 (weaker than expectations of -3.1 to 52.5). Stocks saw early strength after the PBOC lowered the Chinese bank reserve requirement ratio by -50 bp to 17.0%, which should provide some extra stimulus to the Chinese economy.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.10%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM6 +4.50, FVM6 +3.25. Jun T-notes on Monday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic reports and on carryover support from a rally in German bunds to a 10-1/4 month high on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus after Eurozone Feb CPI fell by the most in a year.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.042 (+0.04%) at a 3-1/2 week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.42 (+0.37%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.063 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.0061 (-0.56%), USD/JPY -1.31 (-1.15%). The dollar index on Monday rose to a 3-week high and closed higher on weakness in the Chinese yuan which fell to a 3-week low against the dollar after the PBOC cut the bank reserve requirement ratio by 50 bp. In addition, EUR/USD fell to a 1-month low after Eurozone Feb CPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch y/y which bolsters the case for the ECB to expand at its meeting next week.

Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.69%) this morning is up +42 cents (+1.24%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 -0.29%) is down -0.0061 (-0.46%). Monday's closes: CLJ6 +0.97 (+2.96%), RBJ6 +0.0263 (+2.03%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on hopes for stronger Chinese energy demand after the PBOC cut the bank reserve ratio. Crude oil prices also received a boost from expectations for lower U.S. oil production after last Friday's news from Baker Hughes that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by another -13 rigs to a 6-year low of 400, the 10th straight weekly decline.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/01/2016
US 0945 ET Revised Feb Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 51.2, preliminary-Feb -1.4 to 51.0.
1000 ET Feb ISM manufacturing index expected +0.3 to 48.5, Jan +0.2 to 48.2. Feb ISM new orders, Jan +2.7 to 51.5. Feb ISM employment, Jan -2.1 to 45.9. Feb ISM prices paid expected +1.5 to 35.0, Jan unch at 33.5.
1000 ET Jan construction spending expected +0.3%, Dec +0.1% m/m.
n/a Feb total vehicle sales expected 17.70 million, Jan 17.46 million. Feb domestic vehicle sales expected 13.87 million, Jan 13.79 million.
JPN 0000 ET Japan Feb vehicle sales, Jan +0.2% y/y.
GER 0355 ET German Feb unemployment change expected -10,000, Jan -20,000. Feb unemployment rate expected unch at 6.2%.
0355 ET Revised German Feb Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, preliminary -2.1 to 50.2.
EUR 0400 ET Revised Eurozone Feb Markit manufacturing PMI, preliminary -1.3 to 51.0.
0500 ET Eurozone Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 10.4%.
UK 0430 ET UK Feb Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.6 to 52.3, Jan 52.9.

[nikman]

7:27 AM 3/1/2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.88%) are up +0.74% and European stocks are up +1.04% at a 3-1/2 week high on expectations that global central banks will increase stimulus to spur economic growth. New York Fed President Dudley said that he is "somewhat less confident" that inflation will reach the Fed's target as "downside risks have crept up." His comments signal the Fed may wait further before they raise interest rates again. European stocks also found support after the Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to the lowest in more than 4 years. Global stocks shrugged off the negative Chinese economic data that showed the China Feb manufacturing PMI contracted at its steepest pace in 7 years. Asian stocks settled higher: Japan +0.37%, Hong Kong +1.55%, China +1.68%, Taiwan +0.89%, Australia +0.85%, Singapore +0.60%, South Korea closed for holiday, India +3.38%. Asian markets reacted positively to Monday's action from the PBOC to cut banks' reserve requirement ratios that was done after Asian markets closed on Monday.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) is up +0.04% at a 3-1/2 week high. EUR/USD ^EURUSD) is up +0.01%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY)is up +0.37%.

Jun T-note prices (ZNM16 -0.10%) are down -2 ticks.

New York Fed President Dudley said that he is "somewhat less confident" that inflation will reach the Fed's 2.0% target over time as "downside risks have crept up." He added that a continuing decline in energy, commodity prices may signal "greater and more persistent" deflationary pressure in the global economy.

The Eurozone Jan unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 10.3%, stronger than expectations of unch at 10.4% and the lowest in 4-1/3 years.

The China Feb manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.4 to 49.0, weaker than expectations of unch at 49.4 and matched Nov 2011 as the steepest pace of contraction in 7 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) revised-Feb Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI (expected +0.2 to 51.2, preliminary-Feb -1.4 to 51.0), (2) Feb ISM manufacturing index (expected +0.3 to 48.5, Jan +0.2 to 48.2) (3) Jan construction spending (expected +0.4%, Dec +0.1% m/m), and (4) Feb total vehicle sales (expected 17.70 million, Jan 17.46 million).

There are 4 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: AutoZone (consensus $7.28), Dollar Tree (1.07), Medtronic (1.06), Ross Stores (0.64).

MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.88%) this morning are up +14.25 points (+0.74%). Monday's closes: S&P 500 -0.81%, Dow Jones -0.74%, Nasdaq -0.81%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed lower on weak U.S. economic reports that included the unexpected -2.5% m/m drop in U.S. Jan pending home sales (weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 2 years) and the -8.0 point decline in the Feb Chicago PMI to 47.6 (weaker than expectations of -3.1 to 52.5). Stocks saw early strength after the PBOC lowered the Chinese bank reserve requirement ratio by -50 bp to 17.0%, which should provide some extra stimulus to the Chinese economy.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM16 -0.10%) this morning are down -2 ticks. Monday's closes: TYM6 +4.50, FVM6 +3.25. Jun T-notes on Monday closed higher on the weaker-than-expected U.S. economic reports and on carryover support from a rally in German bunds to a 10-1/4 month high on expectations for the ECB to expand stimulus after Eurozone Feb CPI fell by the most in a year.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.04%) this morning is up +0.042 (+0.04%) at a 3-1/2 week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.0001 (+0.01%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.42 (+0.37%). Monday's closes: Dollar Index +0.063 (+0.06%), EUR/USD -0.0061 (-0.56%), USD/JPY -1.31 (-1.15%). The dollar index on Monday rose to a 3-week high and closed higher on weakness in the Chinese yuan which fell to a 3-week low against the dollar after the PBOC cut the bank reserve requirement ratio by 50 bp. In addition, EUR/USD fell to a 1-month low after Eurozone Feb CPI unexpectedly fell -0.2% y/y, weaker than expectations of unch y/y which bolsters the case for the ECB to expand at its meeting next week.

Apr WTI crude (CLJ16 +1.69%) this morning is up +42 cents (+1.24%) and Apr gasoline (RBJ16 -0.29%) is down -0.0061 (-0.46%). Monday's closes: CLJ6 +0.97 (+2.96%), RBJ6 +0.0263 (+2.03%). Apr crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on hopes for stronger Chinese energy demand after the PBOC cut the bank reserve ratio. Crude oil prices also received a boost from expectations for lower U.S. oil production after last Friday's news from Baker Hughes that the number of active U.S. oil rigs fell by another -13 rigs to a 6-year low of 400, the 10th straight weekly decline.

GLOBAL EVENT CALENDAR03/01/2016
US 0945 ET Revised Feb Markit manufacturing PMI expected +0.2 to 51.2, preliminary-Feb -1.4 to 51.0.
1000 ET Feb ISM manufacturing index expected +0.3 to 48.5, Jan +0.2 to 48.2. Feb ISM new orders, Jan +2.7 to 51.5. Feb ISM employment, Jan -2.1 to 45.9. Feb ISM prices paid expected +1.5 to 35.0, Jan unch at 33.5.
1000 ET Jan construction spending expected +0.3%, Dec +0.1% m/m.
n/a Feb total vehicle sales expected 17.70 million, Jan 17.46 million. Feb domestic vehicle sales expected 13.87 million, Jan 13.79 million.
JPN 0000 ET Japan Feb vehicle sales, Jan +0.2% y/y.
GER 0355 ET German Feb unemployment change expected -10,000, Jan -20,000. Feb unemployment rate expected unch at 6.2%.
0355 ET Revised German Feb Markit/BME manufacturing PMI, preliminary -2.1 to 50.2.
EUR 0400 ET Revised Eurozone Feb Markit manufacturing PMI, preliminary -1.3 to 51.0.
0500 ET Eurozone Jan unemployment rate expected unch at 10.4%.
UK 0430 ET UK Feb Markit manufacturing PMI expected -0.6 to 52.3, Jan 52.9.

Thanks DTES. These reports are very useful and your estimates are very accurate. Thank you for posting these daily.

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