Always worth considering any swing timeframe study from Q.Edges..
"Thursday and Friday saw relatively large selloffs in SPX. After closing at a 50-day high on Wednesday, it closed at a 10-day low on Friday. This triggered an interesting study that looked at relatively sharp selloffs that made at least 8-day lows.
The stats all suggest an upside edge over the next 1-5 days. Traders may want to keep this in mind when setting their trading bias this week."
My system that generated a buy signal is something absurd like 45-3 over the last 9 months. The last time it bot at a high like this was on the open on January 8th. While that trade was a loser, it still signaled a consolidation at least as price fought very hard to get back to my entry point over the next 2 days. A little patience made it a very small loss.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
OVERBOUGHT S&P 500 ALSO DUE FOR A PULLBACK ... The daily chart of the S&P 500 also suggests vulnerability to more short term selling. Chart 7 shows the SPX trading above its April high at 2111 at mid-week. But it wasn't able to hold that modest upside breakout. The SPX lost nearly 1% on Friday to end the week back below 2100 (2096). And it did so on rising volume. More importanty, its 14-day RSI line (top of chart) failed to reach its April high near 70 which formed a "negative divergence" in the RSI line (black arrow). Daily MACD lines (below chart) are also well below their April high. All of which suggests that the SPX may be due for some more profit-taking. A pullback near its May low (and 200-day average) wouldn't be surprising and wouldn't disturb the uptrend that started in February. The S&P 500 has had a nearly 90% correlation with the rising price of oil since their February bottom. A pullack in that commodity (which appears likely) could also weaken the S&P 500 over the short run. So could a further bounce in the U.S. dollar.
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Well I just got stopped out for a huge loss. Figures. I watch this system for months and nothing but wins wins wins. I finally trade it and bam a loss.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.