Cobra's Market View

on some days, like today more contacts/shares are traded in pre-market than during mid-day.

still expect a pullback of some kind here. but don't get me wrong, i don't trade against trend, there's difference between trade and market comment.

rhight wrote:Dollar weakness supporting market today. UUP is falling below a 3 to 4 week up trend line and 50 DMA this morning. For all the bears (and I've been one too often) shorting into strength is the inverse of trying to catch a falling knife. Could be a dangerous game. I'd like to see a short term topping pattern (measured in a couple hours) before initiated a short term short with tight stops and minimal capital exposure. Right now I'm leaning more towards going long on the next pull back. Short term TICK and TRIN are still quite bullish (although I know TICK can be a contrary indicator). Weekly Stochastic is in the process of making a bull cross from oversold area, even though Monthly is starting to turn down.

well said, also counter trend is dangerous but reward is high if one can be discipline on stops.

SPX
Grrr...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_3115.html

99er wrote:SPX
Grrr...
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_3115.html

RSI to hit 100

I am taking a break, got squeeze on my last 40% shorts lot, will be bacckkkkk to take more squeeze

Rumor for the short covering rally since 1015am:
NYSE detected flash crash like HFT activities . Some think that this is why selling stops at lows.

agnosia wrote:ok target met on crude.... time for a vacation for me lol.

have a good vacation:D

trader_jay wrote:Rumor for the short covering rally since 1015am:
NYSE detected flash crash like HFT activities . Some think that this is why selling stops at lows.

on which symbol?

I think ChiOsc is high enough to justify a pullback of some kind here. I still see the previous bar as an exhaustion bar.

10:30 AM OEX Put/Call ratio spiked a little bit. Smart money possibly betting on 1300 resistance?

Sure do miss Cletus' Cycle Turn Times...

roamingjan wrote:Sure do miss Cletus' Cycle Turn Times...

Me too. Cletus, come back buddy!

Cobra wrote:still expect a pullback of some kind here. but don't get me wrong, i don't trade against trend, there's difference between trade and market comment.

VIX lingers at this level . Too nice to ignore!
Out of some longs. Also, bought some VIX Aug 25 calls @ 1.20

bbc wrote:

agnosia wrote:ok target met on crude.... time for a vacation for me lol.

have a good vacation:D

thanks... good luck with your trading..

cougar wrote:

Cobra wrote:still expect a pullback of some kind here. but don't get me wrong, i don't trade against trend, there's difference between trade and market comment.

VIX lingers at this level . Too nice to ignore!
Out of some longs. Also, bought some VIX Aug 25 calls @ 1.20

AUG C25 at 1.20??? so expensive...

here's one of my new trading screens,
i was scalping too much before, these charts are to help me stay in trade longer.
made 6 points so far this morning, so i think they're going to work.

Look at Apple... heheheheh

bbc wrote:

cougar wrote:

Cobra wrote:still expect a pullback of some kind here. but don't get me wrong, i don't trade against trend, there's difference between trade and market comment.

VIX lingers at this level . Too nice to ignore!
Out of some longs. Also, bought some VIX Aug 25 calls @ 1.20

AUG C25 at 1.20??? so expensive...

BBC: well, yes, expensive… Last time I bought them (around 17) they were 0.85 but the “mood” has changed and VIX is VIX: manipulated and a can of hopes and fears!!
LOL!

Revisit of the chart I posted yesterday, I hope someone paid attention.

The Gap over the red downtrend line was a strong bullish signal. A successful retest of the line that also happen to cross at the 6/22 high was so money. Gotta love when two lines are there to support a retest.

Now two new things. A Extension of the downtrend line is added from the 6/1 high and sure enough that's where the run today has stopped so far. I agree with Cobra (as usual) on adding the trend channel and a small pullback here. But once we break the red line then 1323 on SPX is next.

I believe Cobra has stated that at the moment buy the pullbacks. Cobra can correct me if I'm wrong. Seen some odd trades posted, not really interested in how many reasons one can create for themself. Well, what a fun month this has been. As they say, Bulls make money, Bears make money, and Pigs with bias to one direction get slaughtered.

Cobra is awesome because he just talks the ebb and flow of the market, a surfer riding the waves. That's what we all should strive for.

cougar wrote:

bbc wrote:

cougar wrote:

Cobra wrote:still expect a pullback of some kind here. but don't get me wrong, i don't trade against trend, there's difference between trade and market comment.

VIX lingers at this level . Too nice to ignore!
Out of some longs. Also, bought some VIX Aug 25 calls @ 1.20

AUG C25 at 1.20??? so expensive...

BBC: well, yes, expensive… Last time I bought them (around 17) they were 0.85 but the “mood” has changed and VIX is VIX: manipulated and a can of hopes and fears!!
LOL!

I knew, the thing that is tricky for VIX options is, you could not expect IV of VIX options to drop as expiration approaching.
In that case bull spread is not an option to bring cost down, so there is actual no good way to set a time to liquid it.
$1.2 premium is way too many for me with this far OTM.

Another issue, yes, it could be manipulated because it's calculated based on MIDDLE, NOT LAST, Market maker could change the quote to tune the MIDDLE.
and SOQ settle mechanism provides another manipulable channel.

Anyway, I did not say it could be a good trade, I need more research, I blindly traded VIX futures because I thought it was low, now I think I'd better use some
strategy.