10/19/2011 Intraday Watering

[Al_Dente]

yesterday's action has changed my thesis.

Old thesis was for a good correction/rally retrace to be followed by a second push up to make an attempt on the 200 day MA.
New thesis is for a consolidation/chop fest to work off over-bought conditions followed by a second push up.
I was looking for a low between SPY 117-119 (Max Pain - 2) but now I think around Max Pain (119) may be the floor.
My technical rationale is based partly on the chart and partly on month end reality.
Performance through 10/31 has impact on fund manager bonuses as well as hedge fund redemption notices for year-end.
As of September 30, a lot of funds and firms were down considerably. If they have been long and strong since then, they may be up now or at least not bad.
There is a powerful incentive for them to defend this market and perhaps put in a push up to the finish line to protect their pay, career or firm as the case may be.
This is speculative I know, but the tape seems to be aligning with this notion.
I am net long and buying dips into next week. Given overboughtness and max pain, there should be some kind of dip on the way to OpEx.
Also, as pure guess, I can envision a rally in the financials being used to gun the S&P in the next push up. So, I am watching the action there for clues.

“chop fest”
Yr insight/speculation on fund managers always helpful 2 me
5 min internals update
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYDEC ... =246211365

[99er]

SPX
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_9782.html

Paging Tabby.

[SB73]

Neither bullish nor bearish here just observing. The 60 min chart is getting ready to setup its 4th divergence on the MACD and 4th or 5th on the RSI...

[simpletrader]

The way I see it, aapl will try to filled the gap, could be at least half of it. So the tech and the market will go higher, speculation at this point. sit side way.

There's two gaps, 388 and 422. Would be pretty amazed if it fills the top gap..short term is still down.

I expect aapl will try the top gap first, indeed, the trend for aapl changed to downside.

[stucap]

Somebody mentioned yesterday SQNM, which I am also following. It could bounce right here, but if it falls lower, a bounce at 4.45 would be even more interesting.

thanks cougar --- been looking for a good entry point. seems like it might be a good bargain...

[agnosia]

going for the 90.21 gap. i am still heavy long /cl from 88 yesterday. will sell half at gap. next gap is 91.93

[uempel]

SPX broke first Fib support - but turned back up the last few minutes (not shown here). The micro pattern of the market doesn't look weak...

[Al_Dente]

BB52x
u in that?

.

Sorry, off topic, answer or not at yr lesiure
U watch RSI on yr 60min heiniken?
Very revealing neg d’s, but is it skewed due 2 wacky heiniken calculation? Looks the same neg d's on regular 60min candlesticks..

[stucap]

SPX broke first Fib support - but turned back up the last few minutes (not shown here). The micro pattern of the market doesn't look weak...

guessing we are just consolidating here for a push higher. seems like bears are once again, in hibernation. so much for a tight range day? bracing for a retest of highs. about the only thing that will stop this move up is me buying in

[BullBear52x]

BB52x
u in that?

.

Sorry, off topic, answer or not at yr lesiure
U watch RSI on yr 60min heiniken?
Very revealing neg d’s, but is it skewed due 2 wacky heiniken calculation? Looks the same neg d's on regular 60min candlesticks..

On SPY? I see nothing Negative just yet, but intraday Turtle bull flag.

[Dow Trader]

So far this daily upper ban acting as a magnet but keep in mind that it is still flat and not trending yet

[CMT]

Bought SDS 21.29, stop 20.97

[stucap]

Bought SDS 21.29, stop 20.97

good spot to try --- gl.

[tdo722]

Bought SDS 21.29, stop 20.97

good luck sir. me waiting to buy sds too.

[waverider]

If this happens to not breakout, BAC looks like a short:

[tdo722]

Bought SDS 21.29, stop 20.97

good luck sir. me waiting to buy sds too.

By the way, do you mind sharing how u come up with $20.97 stop loss? Is it a calculated guess for spx 1235?

[GreedyKojiro]

---DOOM PATTERN---

[agnosia]

sold all my crude at 89 for +1 . not sure what's up with it but i'm out.

[Dow Trader]

Here is what I see a highly possible pattern so far. Triangle at major resistance area or trying to build a top

[Al_Dente]

BB52x
u in that?

.

yr 60min heiniken?

On SPY? I see nothing Negative just yet, but intraday Turtle bull flag.

Okay, so what, I stole yr 60min heiniken
Then RSI-12 here neg d, neg d … (yr rsi leaner)… am I behind curve again?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =245128035