Cobra's Market View

My calcs show SPX retrace to 1257.58 is 61.8% of the entire down move. I have to add to the shorts the back stop is there. On the flip side, Mr Cobra is usually right.

Trend followers I know you guys are laughing at us trying to nail the top, well nothing go straight up or down is it?

Roadrunner wrote:
I have my order placed for short at 90.45 ... i'm timid for spy short

lol. nice. i am very very very long /es , will sell all of them at 1257.

BullBear52x wrote:Trend followers I know you guys are laughing at us trying to nail the top, well nothing go straight up or down is it?

IMO it will not take much to unravel this in a hurry...the pennies that I am losing on the slow grind higher today will easily be replenished.

wayne0708 wrote:cobra:
I hope you get to your target and down we go, so everyone is happy

the target is mini target.

Time to bet on shorts.
Good luck !

Low risk for an intraday SPY short at this point.

Profit target = VWAP.

agnosia wrote:

Roadrunner wrote:
I have my order placed for short at 90.45 ... i'm timid for spy short

lol. nice. i am very very very long /es , will sell all of them at 1257.

Gd for you. ...well, we got our CL spike

it seems more shorts will initiate here soon -- very interesting sign!

Haven't posted in awhile.
Still Net Long. Putting protective stops in place and eyeing the exits to take profits.
I think there will be a high this week as the jackals push the indexes to make sure that they get good bonuses and that hedge fund redemption notices for year end will be light.
Barring a really bad surprise, this window dressing should provide support into month end. (That doesn't mean there can't be a downdraft.)
I don't know if it will be an important high or just a mark for a corrective move in the rally.
The intermediate term technicals (NYMO notwithstanding) continue to improve, which should draw more money into the market.
However, I see a heavy resistance zone between S&P 1256.88 (the March 16 close) and 1274.58 (200 day SMA).

While this looks like the first move up in the rally, I hold it under suspicion of actually being the second push up with the consolidation early last week serving as the "correction."
I do this because of the two divergences I see. One divergence is that the VIX has not made a lower low. The MAJOR divergence, however, is that the TED Spread continues to tick up, make new highs and remains in a clear up trend (something I have been harping on for awhile). So while equity prices are discounting the risk of a dislocation, the interbank market is saying it is rising. One of them is wrong.
I have this vision of the equity market as a juggler successfully tossing his balls higher and higher as he walks forward toward a staircase he does not see. (That's probably too bearish a metaphor but you get the picture.) So, the bottom line is that I am a seller as we get into the resistance zone or if things turn. I would like to be market neutral by month end.

man, bull is so strong today.
whenever iwm touched ema9 at 1min, a big buy order will lift it.
And it could not touch ema9 at 5min at all....

bear is too weak, time to weak up
volumn was increasing

PAGING COUGAR
Thanks 4 PALL chart. I can’t trade it, too thin (obviously)… so I don’t even watch it…big mistake?

Roadrunner wrote:

agnosia wrote:

Roadrunner wrote:
I have my order placed for short at 90.45 ... i'm timid for spy short

lol. nice. i am very very very long /es , will sell all of them at 1257.

Gd for you. ...well, we got our CL spike

yeah i shorted 90.48, stopped out 90.53. suckers bet to pick a top .. i am sitting tight.

ChiOsc a little high now, may take awhile to function though, so nothing to worry for now.

Seems to me now that SPX wants to finish the 3 legged up (5min chart) of today rally. Considering at least to close all my longs!

I am confused, stocks are rising bonds (TLT) are rising!!?? I think we are close to the intermediate top, bought some EDZ!

BullBear52x wrote:Trend followers I know you guys are laughing at us trying to nail the top, well nothing go straight up or down is it?

Nope, no laughs today, just holding breath.
NYADV very strong 2429, sure needs a breather, but the shorts-covering just don’t care what we think
BTW: at yr leisure, why short SSO instead of long SPXU? Is it price?

agnosia wrote:

Roadrunner wrote:

agnosia wrote:

Roadrunner wrote:
I have my order placed for short at 90.45 ... i'm timid for spy short

lol. nice. i am very very very long /es , will sell all of them at 1257.

Gd for you. ...well, we got our CL spike

yeah i shorted 90.48, stopped out 90.53. suckers bet to pick a top .. i am sitting tight.

i have looser stops near, 91.55...we may get there?

Mr. BachNut wrote:While this looks like the first move up in the rally, I hold it under suspicion of actually being the second push up with the consolidation early last week serving as the "correction."

That's also how I'm looking at it.

I am fully loaded short from 1243.50 ES to 1250 ES. Expect to be a very profitable swing.