Cobra's Market View

pablorynx wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

barbaragull wrote: my last added batch set the same covering price as yours, however, i started too early at too low price. The last batch shorted at 1261.75 pre-market, (it was meant to scalp )

BullBear52x wrote:Ha? now everyone on fundamental. I'll reset my position at 125. can't fight them join them.

KENA wrote:Not much to say today..It has all been said..Not adding to my shorts as yet..I will watch,.. Wait and see..Maybe I will get something done around the house now that the whole world is ok.

StrikePrice wrote:

pablorynx wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

Agreed. Europe is screwed. The UK did well to stay clear and China and India will continue to gain on the sad Europeans. Karma coming due for the Germans. (no offense, I'm part German)

EvilTrader wrote:I am trading extremely cautious at this point.

Attention to this.

Euro countries Spreads are not going down today.

So bond traders are skeptical of the bail-out and are NOT buying this equity rally.

This can be the mother of all traps....

janez wrote:Any aapl shorters here? What is your target? 399.8?I got in 1 deep ITM put around 406.5. It seems weaker than the mkt.

pablorynx wrote:

StrikePrice wrote:

pablorynx wrote:

jarbo456 wrote:if anyone cares about the fundamentals of the situation, this was actually well written, which is surprising considering it came from marketwatch:

...The first is that the private lenders have “voluntarily” (ha ha ha) taken a 50% haircut, which while maybe not quite enough at least presents a possible if not probable way for Greece to grow out of the hole it’s in. (A number closer to 66% would have been better.) Read more on European debt deal.

More importantly, European banks will be recapitalized after — and “after” is the key word — writing their euro-zone debt exposure to market...

There still are plenty of details to be worked out — such as, who’s going to pay for the boost in the EFSF, who’s going to pay for the banks to recapitalize, how Greece will suddenly turn the corner when it’s still uncompetitive against its euro-zone neighbors, whether write-downs will be needed for Irish, Portuguese, Spanish or (shudder) Italian debt, or what the standing is of U.S. banks that bought insurance on Europe via credit-default swaps, since those instruments basically aren’t worth the paper or hard-disk space they’re written on.

I think the other thing which seems to be lost in the shuffle of who's going to backstop who and how much leverage and austerity and such, is that no clear plan for GROWTH is actually articulated. Austerity with no growth implies you're going to lower GDP growth. it gets worse, not better. (Europe likely goes into recession next year). Meanwhile, the market rallies as it can't wait for the hammer to fall. Remember, we get used to stuff until we can't ignore it. This whole saga could take two years before minimal resolution.

Agreed. Europe is screwed. The UK did well to stay clear and China and India will continue to gain on the sad Europeans. Karma coming due for the Germans. (no offense, I'm part German)

Fundamentals have their place in informing investment decisions for sure. For instance: US data is better than had been expected. GDP @ 2.5% was a pipe dream just a month ago. Non-distressed home prices have stabilized and in certain areas of the country, demographic forces have pushed them higher. The Baltic Dry index is showing signs of life, implying that Chinese shipments of iron/coal have increased dramatically (I assume Chinese cause who else is going to use these goods now). And euroland will be dead (at some point), policy makers are good at dragging the brain-dead patient. The US will also be similarly screwed (but it might take us 10 years to get there), barring some unforseen technological innovation which provides us with leverage for growth (non-financial). So what does this leave me with? Et ceteris paribus, the market rallies. Cause everyone feels the terrible situation we're all in, but our positions reflect that reality. Everyone already gets the joke. Not many are getting the timing. So yes, fundamentally, technically, you should be long.