11/03/2011 Intraday Watering

[jarbo456]

where's the exhaustion green bar when you need it. -_-

[fuddleduddle]

Apparently Greek referendum proposal has been scrapped.

[jarbo456]

This time from AP:

GREECE BAILOUT REFERENDUM HAS BEEN SCRAPPED
Officials close to Greek prime minister tell Associated Press bailout referendum has been scrapped
How close? And are they closer to their Forex frontrunning trading platform?

Seriously - No more... Please... We give up.

[Al_Dente]

uh-oh, almost shorted thinking yhod and below vwap was sell... Glad I didn't yet lol.

hi wavy: watch nyadv to see if it can hold
Tick is beeping buy
Strongest looks like transports and materials
i have stock/bond ratio etc 4 u.... must do later

[SB73]

Apparently Greek referendum proposal has been scrapped.

Thank God I was concerned that citizens may actually be able to decide their own future.

[rhight]

We may not follow conventional 2-3 leg down here even though the first leg was so powerful... reason is I think there was a mini panic related to Jefferies which seems to have subsided with the Jefferies statement release. Market should have been up today because of the rate cut, the drop seems to have been reaction to the debt downgrade of Jefferies.

Doesn't a rate cut in Europe weaken the Euro, and so would be negative for stocks? Just asking.

[toplight]

One thing to note about intermediate wave 2's this past year. I've noticed that they quite often get near the 78.6% or 76.4% retrace, (take your pick.) This has the effect of encouraging the bulls, setting up a trap, in addition to flushing weak shorts out of their positions. You can't win for losing with such strong rebounds, makes it difficult to catch an intermediate trend in the beginning. If this is a wave 2 up, then that retrace level is currently about 1276.

Thank you, good observation!

[pady]

Shorted at 125. Holding till 1150-80 region whenever it comes

[yxc74]

volume surge,long 1232.50........OH,my god,why covered it too early!

[fuddleduddle]

Apparently Greek referendum proposal has been scrapped.

Thank God I was concerned that citizens may actually be able to decide their own future.

Oh G-pap, you little tease.

[waverider]

uh-oh, almost shorted thinking yhod and below vwap was sell... Glad I didn't yet lol.

hi wavy: watch nyadv to see if it can hold
Tick is beeping buy
Strongest looks like transports and materials
i have stock/bond ratio etc 4 u.... must do later

Hey Al,that would be great! Trying to learn all that I can about this, reviewed your RSI yesterday on the 1 min, VERY useful in spotting neg/pos divergence.

[Al_Dente]

At the moment, 27 of the dow 30 are green
3 reds: HD JPM INTC

[jarbo456]

just another day where it's hard to be short the market. the ECB rate cut is bad for the EUR, and as everything is following the FX market these days, translates to equity negative. but as we fill the gap to the downside, and start a healthy exhaustion rebound, the market comes out with yet another Greek headline to really hurt shorts. i don't know if it'll work and push us to a new HOD, but it's just another reminder that whatever statistics you have for a bearish set-ups need to be deducted by half.

[Grizzly]

Apparently Greek referendum proposal has been scrapped.

Thank God I was concerned that citizens may actually be able to decide their own future.

Oh G-pap, you little tease.

Who said you can't work 5/6 hours a day, take 6 weeks of vacation, and retire at age 50. Sure you can! Just borrow the money... YES WE CAN!

[SB73]

oddly enough the VIX is smelling a rat

[pady]

At the moment, 27 of the dow 30 are green
3 reds: HD JPM INTC

Since I own HD, last few market turnarounds, HD goes down first before market turnarounds. I have no idea why. Just might be coincidence. Definitely not so historically.

[Cobra]

still think this is a 3 push up. we have a L2 short on 15 min chart here, let's see if any further pullback.

[Richarab]

someone asked about TVIX as day trade or hold longer
...
you can certanily hold this for periods of time - at least time like this.
find a nice low entry point - anything below 50 is brilliant - at 54 now is ok - that is my entry today.
will see how euphoric any euro 'resolution' is - but my guess is the VIX starts its upward creep through this month....
August this year was a brilliant hold on TVIX
you need to have a strong heart to hang in the Trader Vix too. very up and down.
set your risk limits and then get onboard

[Al_Dente]

uh-oh, almost .

wavy: watch

Hey Al... reviewed your RSI yesterday on the 1 min, VERY useful in spotting neg/pos divergence.

Wave: again, watch BB52x for his 1min RSI, I think he uses rsi-50 on his platform, on stockcharts.com the rsi-20 may be closest. Caveat: MANY times rsi will go negative/positive divergence once, maybe twice, maybe three times before a turn, u want to avoid “jumping the gun” that’s why it can only b used in conjunction w other internals….
Here’s stock/bond ratio, it’s just not a clean enough cross to buy yet (as of yest close).
If you run the same chart using $SPX or SPY/TLT it’s not even close to a buy cross, but I hate using TLT for anything serious.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX:$ ... listNum=15
I also use this ratio of offensive to defensive stocks, it’s not a long yet either (as of yest close), not on the dailies or the weeklies.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY:XL ... listNum=15

this is my fav Rasta song, but I need better version w more clarity, u have better??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64QkD5pB ... re=related

[rhight]

One thing to note about intermediate wave 2's this past year. I've noticed that they quite often get near the 78.6% or 76.4% retrace, (take your pick.) This has the effect of encouraging the bulls, setting up a trap, in addition to flushing weak shorts out of their positions. You can't win for losing with such strong rebounds, makes it difficult to catch an intermediate trend in the beginning. If this is a wave 2 up, then that retrace level is currently about 1276.

Thank you, good observation!

That said, my earlier post sited possible strong resistance in the 1252 to 1258 area. The Daily ADX is now < 15, that indicates "no trend" (in that time frame), even after the strong October. And so, trend following is difficult to follow right now. From Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist "Technical Analysis" :

ADX<20 : No trend
use patterns, support and resistance, oscillator divergences and failures.