01/19/2012 Intraday Watering

[Cobra]

look at Trin divergence here almost there but I'll stick to my price pattern these internals crap distract me for a whole week.

spy.JPG

this is what works

spx.JPG

the divergence is huge everywhere but it's very hard to time the divergence.

if the mkt up another 1.5% today, would the divergence be resolved?

maybe.

[uempel]

Glance at the recovery rally coming out of the March 2009 low
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =244427973

Note the similarities/differences in SPY coming off the 2011 correction.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =254260180

“Steal” these charts, plug in your favorite indicator(s) and compare them with today. Please post any astonishing revelations. I am NOT saying that this time is the same/different….Both times it could have gone either way, what was it that made the difference?

(There is 100% certainty that both times had at minimum one feature in common: massive short covering).

Equal time fairness rule: revise the dates and study the past few tops compared to today. If/when we get bad news and the short covering comes to a halt, this could prove to be a significant top.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…we were all going direct to heaven…………” [Charles Dickens, Tale of Two Cities, 1859]

May I add this chart to Al's comment?

[rhight]

PAGING RHIGHT
Thanks rhight. Try testing ADX 8 with HL 25 (courtesy linda ratschke…. spelling??). GL 2 U

PAGING SB73
SB: continued fm yest…re rules
U familiar w Dennis Gartman’s rules? Love him/hate him, he does have a decent list. Plus it’s interesting to peek at someone elses rules,
especially the guys who’ve survived 30+ years in mkts
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rules.html

Certainly. Does it matter what time frame?

[cougar]

Glance at the recovery rally coming out of the March 2009 low
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =244427973

Note the similarities/differences in SPY coming off the 2011 correction.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =254260180

“Steal” these charts, plug in your favorite indicator(s) and compare them with today. Please post any astonishing revelations. I am NOT saying that this time is the same/different….Both times it could have gone either way, what was it that made the difference?

(There is 100% certainty that both times had at minimum one feature in common: massive short covering).

Equal time fairness rule: revise the dates and study the past few tops compared to today. If/when we get bad news and the short covering comes to a halt, this could prove to be a significant top.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…we were all going direct to heaven…………” [Charles Dickens, Tale of Two Cities, 1859]

May I add this chart to Al's comment?

1.png

Very nice Uempel!

[SWalsh]

I have got an intraday NYMO reading nicking overbought levels. Also, a close in the e-mini S&P future > 1302.50 would complete a Tom DeMark Sequential Sell Setup (the cash indexes not there yet).

I do not follow the DeMark methodology, but I have been told that a number of mutual funds use it. That said, I was also told that the very next bar has been a bloodbath when selling recently, only further making me think they know every system out there and slam all participants. Why? "BECAUSE IT WAS WRECKABLE"

[Al_Dente]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

[Rezito]

This market seems to be running on a secret QE. Obama needs to get relected ===> SPX 1500

[L_T]

at the very beginning of the trend, ChiOsc simply doesn't work. but now the trend is mature, so ChiOsc should work. Let's see.[/quote]

The above statement just made it into my log file of smart things people say here. I literally copy and paste smart things and re-read them later so they sink in.

Here are a couple of other gems directly from Cobra from days gone by:

I just want to take the opportunity to prove when signal and pattern conflict, usually patterns win. And that's why trading is an art not science because you cannot rely simply on signals.

Triangle usually means continuation, but triangle also means the final stage of the current trend.

[L_T]

Pilot Short in a coma and near death.
Yesterday was a decisive close above the big declining tops line (S&P).
Pilot Short was structured anticipating resistances holding and triggering a turn or correction. Didn't work.
Signs that a top is close are increasing, but the market is behaving like a bull market with bullish resolutions to technical challenges.
I have got an intraday NYMO reading nicking overbought levels. Also, a close in the e-mini S&P future > 1302.50 would complete a Tom DeMark Sequential Sell Setup (the cash indexes not there yet).
So, still looks like a correction or something is imminent, but Mr. Market doing a good job of offing Pilot Short before letting it loose.

Do you calculate the DeMark manually or do you have a freebie website that can feed you that info? Another guy I follow seems to time the market quite well with monthly DeMark 9 counts.

[Me XMan]

Wow.

Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

[bushwaffle]

something very strange about the last 3 mins... this candle just flashed down to 131.17 then back up to current level, made a new high, then settled back again really fast...option prices did not respond to any of it. FISHY

[rhight]

My line in the sand. This is using the Daily Close. This TL has be touched 4 times, the 2 shown, and then again in early July, and then in late July it turned just 4 points shy of this TL.

[SB73]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

Thanks Dr Al,

I talk to a guy quite a bit that really loves gold. He absolutely despises "Denny" Gartman. I will have to check out his rules. Thanks for the heads up on the NYADV. I was away from my computer for awhile and can now see that my long position is still intact without anything near a ding in its armour. Moving the stop up to 131.23 (EMA 20 on the 5 min)

[rhight]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

I believe that NYMO only updates EOD.

[cougar]

"uempel": to complement your ellipse:

[BullBear52x]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

I believe that NYMO only updates EOD.

yes, it is after close, look at NYHL today if today close lower than yesterday then we have a turn here also.

[taggard]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

I believe that NYMO only updates EOD.

if you want something very close to nymo use 10 day moving average of nyse. i actually prefer the 10 day because it gives more clues about the future.

[taggard]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

I believe that NYMO only updates EOD.

if you want something very close to nymo use 10 day moving average of nyse. i actually prefer the 10 day because it gives more clues about the future.

sigh--sorry--moving too fast here--"use 10 day moving average of nyse ad line (so advancers minus decliners)

[jarbo456]

and there's goes AUD/JPY...breaking above the the 61.8 fib extension.

guess it's looking to tag the daily 200MA at 80.56

[Mr. BachNut]

I have got an intraday NYMO reading nicking overbought levels. Also, a close in the e-mini S&P future > 1302.50 would complete a Tom DeMark Sequential Sell Setup (the cash indexes not there yet).

I do not follow the DeMark methodology, but I have been told that a number of mutual funds use it. That said, I was also told that the very next bar has been a bloodbath when selling recently, only further making me think they know every system out there and slam all participants. Why? "BECAUSE IT WAS WRECKABLE"

I am still getting familiar with the DeMark thing myself. My anecdotal experience over just a few months has been spotty. That is I find the turn has come the day before the signal clicks or way after. I think it may be a little stale as a timing tool. However, even if the timing is off, it should still work as a warning of potential exhaustion. I don't have any sense what the implication is of hitting a signal in futures but not yet in cash. We may get some experience with that next week.