Cobra's Market View

rip all your charts off the wall and stick one chart up there....you know it the chart is AAPL. She looks like she is blowing off a top, but Cobra has warned us about shorting her until the signs are there.

AAPL parabolic blowoff, finally the SP can find its real level...this is mania

edit
PS maybe not such a good idea 2 mention that u have other girlfriends when she’s around.
Just sayin
She may punish u for that

I think I will take Cobra advice and never short stocks like AAPL. You know what they say. When it comes to technology, the sky is the limit, or perhaps Jupiter. I remember seeing Qualcom in the late 90s. Their share price was about $1200 a share. Go figure! I think AAPL has more than just $650 to touch. What do you think?[/quote]

AAPL's P/E is still under 15x. It could easily go to 20-25x [700-900] or even 30x [1000+]. Scary thought but very much possible. Rumor has it they may pay some sort of dividend this year --- and that would create even more demand from the "dividend payer" funds and etfs. That said, won't happen in a straight line. I'm not saying it has to test its 200dma again (385) but maybe the 20dma which is sitting at 460 and rising?

No opex edge right now….

I have looked at the data that I have kept lots of different ways to see if anything pops out at me…. and the only thing that really came out was that there are rarely MAJOR tops during opex week when the weekly and daily stochastics are so elevated, BUT next Tuesday should be a key day as most of the similar opex periods (extended weekly rally and strong rally in to opex) did have a turn right after opex…. though some February opex weeks took a little longer – say to the Wednesday or Thursday….. Also, around holidays and opex there have been some decent tops – most notably Jan 2010 and Feb 2011

For now, no analogs and no predictions as I just do not see an edge in the data, particularly now that the high of the week (so far) is a Wednesday

I guess it really is all about AAPL for now.

-D

AAPL weekly chart. Let's see if the 527 to 530 area is important.

How far and How long AAPL upward move will continue?

Al_Dente wrote:edit
PS maybe not such a good idea 2 mention that u have other girlfriends when she’s around.
Just sayin
She may punish u for that

Look at that skank punishing me as soon as I dumped her. I need a break so I don't do something stupid

stucap wrote:I think I will take Cobra advice and never short stocks like AAPL. You know what they say. When it comes to technology, the sky is the limit, or perhaps Jupiter. I remember seeing Qualcom in the late 90s. Their share price was about $1200 a share. Go figure! I think AAPL has more than just $650 to touch. What do you think?

AAPL's P/E is still under 15x. It could easily go to 20-25x [700-900] or even 30x [1000+]. Scary thought but very much possible. Rumor has it they may pay some sort of dividend this year --- and that would create even more demand from the "dividend payer" funds and etfs. That said, won't happen in a straight line. I'm not saying it has to test its 200dma again (385) but maybe the 20dma which is sitting at 460 and rising?[/quote]

AAPL is in 3rd wave up clearly on the weekly chart. Wave 1 peak is at $200. When AAPL starts wave 4 down it cannot break $200 otherwise it's game over and that would be a wonderful shorting opportunity.

AAPL, the largest cap of all is a component in NDX & SPX.[/quote]

So I guess we can use AAPL as our crystal ball. If AAPL is up, SPX will be as well.[/quote]

Hell, it is practically the price of an index itself. OEX is only $90 more.
Keep in mind that it has had a parabolic rise of 100 pts in 15 days... if it doesn't eventually
come in hard and fast, it will be the first time that that pattern didn't work. Just have to
wait for it.[/quote]


I think I will take Cobra advice and never short stocks like AAPL. You know what they say. When it comes to technology, the sky is the limit, or perhaps Jupiter. I remember seeing Qualcom in the late 90s. Their share price was about $1200 a share. Go figure! I think AAPL has more than just $650 to touch. What do you think?[/quote]

I don't do analysis of single stocks (although it is clear that I should start now), too many wild cards (think MF Global, Enron, Lehman...). In the end, and in case of parabolic moves, only the last guy buying knows where it stops. From what I have read and heard recently, your projection sounds viable.

this kind of consolidation area is bullish biased.

TraderGirl wrote:Did anyone see this chart on Kimble Charting? I saved the chart in my files, and went back to post the link today, but it was no longer on their website...?? Anyways, shows how margin interest has decreased which has usually preceded market corrections...

To provide a history of how this market lost any connection with reality, I think it was in August of 2010 when the mkt dropped close to 1000 SPX that a few people were posting on blogs that they were short stocks and being told they had to cover. They weren't naked short, but a few were told the same story. The SEC had told brokerage firms they wanted fewer shorts and what looked like a mkt about to breach 1000 turned into a multi-month rally with shorts kicking it off
.

"Never underestimate the steps a government will take to perpetuate its existence"

For anyone watching EW moved, it looks like a Leading Diagonal in /ES off the top and this has been a sideways correction before another leg down.

Nasdaq might as well change their name to NApple. RUT is down 0.14%, NDX is up 0.63% lol. So sad, so sad, the bulls that bought TQQQ must be laughing at my unfortunate holding of UPRO right now.

Nearly all NG gains from this week gone - in a flash! I don't quite get the rhythm of this pump and dump -


---
I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=29.838849,-95.333147

SB73 wrote:rip all your charts off the wall and stick one chart up there....you know it the chart is AAPL. She looks like she is blowing off a top, but Cobra has warned us about shorting her until the signs are there.

A few months ago I received a whole bunch of compelling evidence of Google and NSA connections.

Do Apple devices all now have the ability to have them triangulated as to your location?

Alice Cooper and Vincent Price seems appropriate:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3ntAKP9I2Q

Did anyone send roses to these people yesterday? Would have been a nice thought.

triangle, the bias is up.

SB73 wrote:

Al_Dente wrote:edit

Look at that ................punishing me as soon as I dumped her. I need a break so I don't do something stupid

We KNOW she can’t handle BIG red
Here’s our prob:
We cannot know in advance if her big red just needs a breather, then reload, or needs total reversion
to whatever baseline nightmare-thingie only she decides…
I can’t take that risk w her
I’ll wait 4 her
I am lovesick puppy
PS she MUST make new hi here, convincingly, w no big reds, oooooops red right there... "dirty"
ssssssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhhhh don’t call her sk....

Astro-wise, I had originally thought 15th would be a trough, but apparently it could be a top, with a slight correction into 17th...?? Anyways, check out these charts. I think this is where we could be headed before this market is allowed to have any meaningful pullback (2650-2660)...

One thing to remember about Apple is that while they are trading at 15x earnings they are growing at 50+% so this can go on for quite awhile.

US Dollar

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/02/ ... 12-us.html

No Way Out

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/02/no-way-out.html

Copper

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/02/ ... -2012.html