Cobra's Market View

traveltrey wrote:Several thoughts..

1. Follow the trend as Master Cobra always says - which to this point is up...

Now the interesting stuff:

2. We (finally) closed the gap from last May 2nd-3rd in the SPY - which is the 2nd to last unfilled gap in the SPY other than a gap at the 2007 peak. The gap was at 136.22
3. IWM (RUT) has retested its high from last week (officially this was 3rd time) with a slightly higher high but with RSI/MACD divergence - has also given back all gains from today.
4. Transports ($DJT) are still not confirming the $DJI high --- in fact they are not even close - and they are down again today. Dow Theory says that the transports should also make new high. They also broke down out of a bearish rising wedge last week (IMHO)
5. QQQ are no longer showing the same strength that they were - new high yesterday but again with RSI/MACD divergence.

Now today is OPEX, so no telling what will happen, but usually don't see any move starting today, but I think that we are all out of hopium and that Greece starts a selloff either way:
a. deal gets done and we sell the news
b. deal falls through and everything sells off because of fear

Also,
1. Economic numbers have been okay - but not as strong as the headlines appear --- dig into the NY Fed/Philly Fed and the numbers point to a slowing economy in the near future
2. Earnings this past quarter were only okay - and that is going against estimates that had been lowered sharply over the past few months and companies still struggled to beat these lowered expectations. Big thing was that margin compression was beginning to show up - higher input prices and labor costs - but inability to raise prices to consumers --- CPI numbers from this morning confirm this --- and the PPI numbers from earlier in the week also confirm this... Only increases are in food / energy --- which we all feel immediately. 3. Crude oi is breaking out and gas prices are way above the normal January levels ($3.50 avg for US) which is going to also cause people to pull back on discretionary purchases.

*I know that we're not supposed to 'fight the fed', but eventually the reality will sink in that all of this monetary stimulus is not working and we must 'clear the system' before we can get back on our feet. Greece is the example - they should default and start over --- yes it will be painful in the short term, but they will be so much better off in the long term. Look at the news from Iceland this morning (who didn't bail out everyone in their country) - they are back on a sustainable track and their rating were just UPGRADED - unlike all of Europe and the US.

I know that we focus on technical trading here, but we must also consider the fundamental backdrop to be prepared for all moves.

-tt

BullBear52x wrote:

traveltrey wrote:Several thoughts..

1. Follow the trend as Master Cobra always says - which to this point is up...

Now the interesting stuff:

2. We (finally) closed the gap from last May 2nd-3rd in the SPY - which is the 2nd to last unfilled gap in the SPY other than a gap at the 2007 peak. The gap was at 136.22
3. IWM (RUT) has retested its high from last week (officially this was 3rd time) with a slightly higher high but with RSI/MACD divergence - has also given back all gains from today.
4. Transports ($DJT) are still not confirming the $DJI high --- in fact they are not even close - and they are down again today. Dow Theory says that the transports should also make new high. They also broke down out of a bearish rising wedge last week (IMHO)
5. QQQ are no longer showing the same strength that they were - new high yesterday but again with RSI/MACD divergence.

Now today is OPEX, so no telling what will happen, but usually don't see any move starting today, but I think that we are all out of hopium and that Greece starts a selloff either way:
a. deal gets done and we sell the news
b. deal falls through and everything sells off because of fear

Also,
1. Economic numbers have been okay - but not as strong as the headlines appear --- dig into the NY Fed/Philly Fed and the numbers point to a slowing economy in the near future
2. Earnings this past quarter were only okay - and that is going against estimates that had been lowered sharply over the past few months and companies still struggled to beat these lowered expectations. Big thing was that margin compression was beginning to show up - higher input prices and labor costs - but inability to raise prices to consumers --- CPI numbers from this morning confirm this --- and the PPI numbers from earlier in the week also confirm this... Only increases are in food / energy --- which we all feel immediately. 3. Crude oi is breaking out and gas prices are way above the normal January levels ($3.50 avg for US) which is going to also cause people to pull back on discretionary purchases.

*I know that we're not supposed to 'fight the fed', but eventually the reality will sink in that all of this monetary stimulus is not working and we must 'clear the system' before we can get back on our feet. Greece is the example - they should default and start over --- yes it will be painful in the short term, but they will be so much better off in the long term. Look at the news from Iceland this morning (who didn't bail out everyone in their country) - they are back on a sustainable track and their rating were just UPGRADED - unlike all of Europe and the US.

I know that we focus on technical trading here, but we must also consider the fundamental backdrop to be prepared for all moves.

-tt

Nice you put it out nicely, +1

Al_Dente wrote:PAGE SENOR
yea, she’s cranky
I’m not allowed to average down
I can only average/pyramid up
not ready 2 meet yr parents
I still cant open yr link
heres mine http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =257754799

PAGE UEMPEL thx, preciate that
kiss kiss u too bud…. I never miss yr charts….glad u r back

PAGE Baron von Oi:
Baron could u give me a hot link to oi?
Like yours here, but refreshable? http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pZSuCgs2Saw/T ... 0/spy1.JPG
I use this but I can’t find a good one in chart form http://www.cboe.com/data/mktStat.aspx
please and thanks very much

Al_Dente wrote:PAGE SENOR
yea, she’s cranky
I’m not allowed to average down
I can only average/pyramid up
not ready 2 meet yr parents
I still cant open yr link
heres mine http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =257754799

PAGE UEMPEL thx, preciate that
kiss kiss u too bud…. I never miss yr charts….glad u r back

PAGE Baron von Oi:
Baron could u give me a hot link to oi?
Like yours here, but refreshable? http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pZSuCgs2Saw/T ... 0/spy1.JPG
I use this but I can’t find a good one in chart form http://www.cboe.com/data/mktStat.aspx
please and thanks very much

Cobra wrote:

soku wrote:quick update on aapl. rumor says the trademark lawsuit of ipad in china is getting worse. the chinese company that owns the ipad brand in china is going to ask a block of import/export of anything with ipad on it.
what's the impact? ipad series are born in china. there is chance the pads are killed in womb.

NO WAY of a block. Why? That means millions of people will lose the job. In China government is the biggest not the law, so as long as government won't allow it, it won't be the reality. Nothing is worse than let millions of people losing jobs simply because one broken company law cases. It never would happen in China. Even in US, I really doubt in this case law will be above millions of people's jobs.

Petsamo wrote:Every penny UNG rises is $1.50 I miss out on.

su_root wrote:@ Cobra

Have you looked at block trades for today so far..?

EDIT: that SPY is rising pretty nice, calculated over the last 18 trading days it is rising close to 100% on a yearly basis.

Denali92 wrote:
An interesting one..... 14 of the last 62 opex weeks have had the high of the week on the Friday - none of those Friday's has the SPY closed DOWN!

Just a little trivia nugget,

-D

Al_Dente wrote:5m VIX bolinger starts her crimp
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =256816464

PS: Luv u baron von oi

Mr. BachNut wrote:Still holding short position. Mildly trapped at the moment.
Though price is up, McClellan Oscillator is negative and McClellan Summation Index continues to trend down.
Price rules at the end of the day, but there continues to be a softness under the surface of this market.
The Summation Index needs to rise or my stop needs to get hit (SPY = 138.32) to close me out of this particular intermediate setup.
Not close on either at the moment.
Usually, this setup doesn't take too long to start working if it is going to work. That is a cause for concern as this is day 5.
We'll see what next week brings.

fehro wrote:Bearish rising wedge? with one more push up?.... or possibly a H&S, if neckline is broken