Cobra's Market View

fehro wrote:triangle forming?

No need to draw that down target, fehro. BIAS UP!

Buckethead wrote:I bought OIH and FXI today

I bought FXI before the close yesterday. My heart sank last night when the Hang Seng sold off. I was surprised that FXI opened slightly down this morning.

forgot to say: target.

Cobra wrote:forgot to say: target.

1418

Al_Dente wrote:

uempel wrote:Update with signals...

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Hi uemp
How do u decide if the 12:07 will be 1404.50 or 1401.70 ish?

Al, this might help. Not my chart though!

SWalsh wrote: ...HFT machine that will continue offering shares that are not the best offer (the bulls stuff tens of thousands of bids per second that are not the best bid..

So basically what you're saying is that quote stuffing keeps the market up and it will only decline when there are "no real" buyers left. The outcome of no real buyers will lead to a big sell-off/liquidity black hole?

BTW, what software are you using to monitor quote stuffing / HFT-action?

NDX has been strong all morning and is keeping this together. Yesterday block trades on AAPL was very negative, let's see how it ends today. My best guess is that the rally on AAPL will end sooner than later, I can almost smell the pullback in the air..

VIX is bull-oid
TRIN is bear
Nyadv is 1600 weak but bull bias
Bots are on the sideline
SPY could care less, she’s busy with short covering

(My alert above 140.50 woke me)

I want to illustrate what the machines are doing that make this a random game for everyone but them.

There's what was (past tense) a very valid EW pattern here to break lower that ended an a-b-c at 12:02. This is repeatedly happening in that the computers break it the other way. Why? It must be that they assume short day-trading positions were put on and my understanding is that they see the stops on the books and therefore can run them.

EW...a valid market theory to invest with that has been ruined by the Caesars and made possible by up to 42,000 quotes per second (that's the highest seen so far) allowed with no consequences. The ROI by Wall Street made in 2008 has been astonishing.

tigerwang9999 wrote:lost too much on UVXY and will never touch this again, any idea will UVXY ever move up?

tiger, sorry to hear that, tomorrow we may get a spike up in the mkts. but next week there could be some volatility. if next week it stops bleeding, then your biggest chances are the following week, April 2-6. if you are still holding, look to get out the 4th or 5th. don't know where you bot, but the least it could go is the middle bollinger band around $28/29...

Same squeeze on SP, be ready

su_root wrote:

SWalsh wrote: ...HFT machine that will continue offering shares that are not the best offer (the bulls stuff tens of thousands of bids per second that are not the best bid..

So basically what you're saying is that quote stuffing keeps the market up and it will only decline when there are "no real" buyers left. The outcome of no real buyers will lead to a big sell-off/liquidity black hole?

BTW, what software are you using to monitor quote stuffing / HFT-action?

NDX has been strong all morning and is keeping this together. Yesterday block trades on AAPL was very negative, let's see how it ends today. My best guess is that the rally on AAPL will end sooner than later, I can almost smell the pullback in the air..

While quote stuffing and HFT are interesting observations, whole up move in IWM in the last 2-3 days can be traced to a hand full of bars on one minute chart each trading ~ I million shares. To me this is institutional buying coupled with lack of sellers at that buy price. BTW, most often this move decays in next 15-30 minutes until the next push up. We had two such moves today.

Sorry bears, S&P just broke the first 78.6% level so that cancels out the worst case scenario with target 1389. The 2nd and most important is 1412. That's where I will go heavy long.

uempel wrote:Update with signals...

666.png

uempel, what do you think will happen at 14:25? looking at the mkt, I see that trannies made lower low than yesterday's low, so did Dow, but SPX and RUT did not...thinking SPX needs to go below yesterday's low to complete the wave structure, feels like the market is on hold till that happens, maybe, maybe not..???

su_root wrote:

SWalsh wrote: ...HFT machine that will continue offering shares that are not the best offer (the bulls stuff tens of thousands of bids per second that are not the best bid..

So basically what you're saying is that quote stuffing keeps the market up and it will only decline when there are "no real" buyers left. The outcome of no real buyers will lead to a big sell-off/liquidity black hole?

Close, but not exactly. We don't really have buyers now. What we have is an absence of sellers. There are never any real buyers when compared to the number of bids made. It's a game they keep in a range. If 4,000 SPX made them the most money we'd be there. If 700 made the most, we'd be there. The market reflect nothing but what the "banks" decide to keep it at. And often the Fed floods the banks with money in a decline and mysteriously, one finds out later and it was a week of a bull run. June 2011 saw the largest infusion of cash (I think $140 billion) into banks and a 100+ point SPX rally.

BTW, what software are you using to monitor quote stuffing / HFT-action?

HFTAlert....but it's reached the point that I see no predictability from burning my eyes out watching (I have a nystagmus issue that sucks and this is annoying physically and mentally) and I can tell when a spike hit as a few moments later the chart sees a move from what was a dead market. Virtually no .20 pt SPY move on a 1 min chart did not happen except from HFTs/Algos.

I really do feel this is a national disgrace to destroy your capital base (this form of "capitalism" should be shut down) for the Law of Unintended Consequences is a bitch. I heard a show recently that Merger and Acquisitions firms are closing as no one knows what true valuation is anymore. And that has to come in good part from this insanity that feeds the Five Families. (my love term for the banks)

SPX: Follow up of two potential ending patterns:

Harapa wrote: While quote stuffing and HFT are interesting observations, whole up move in IWM in the last 2-3 days can be traced to a hand full of bars on one minute chart each trading ~ I million shares. To me this is institutional buying coupled with lack of sellers at that buy price. BTW, most often this move decays in next 15-30 minutes until the next push up. We had two such moves today.

It sound interesting that the "institutional buying"" did not buy all day in bits and drabs and instead assaulted a mkt that could not facilitate their order and did it all in one minute.

I've known a lot of brokers in my life. Doing as you observed for a client, unless so ordered, is a good way to be told the fill sucks and they want a financial adjustment to the price.

TWT wrote:KBE: A potential H&S

TWT
FYI: I appreciate this KBE chart (also KRE if u follow that one)
As well as all the other great charts u post
KBE is right up there with UYG and FAS as an intraday trading vehicle (per volume), and KBE is a pure $BKX proxy.
U are quite a purist. I like that. Thx

PS: thanks Harapa, I luv 2 c how other folks use internals

PPS: the typo in my TRIN chart notes, posted earlier, has been corrected

TWT wrote:SPX: Follow up of two potential ending patterns:

How many ending diagonals are we allowed?

This seems eerily familiar to last June/July. But it did finally break.

tigerwang9999 wrote:lost too much on UVXY and will never touch this again, any idea will UVXY ever move up?

feel sorry for you, last couple days were most profitable for me just using sell/buy TZA/TNA, to the end of month not touching long though. I think you can go with UVXY begining of Aprill...

TraderGirl wrote:

uempel wrote:Update with signals...

The attachment 666.png is no longer available

uempel, what do you think will happen at 14:25? looking at the mkt, I see that trannies made lower low than yesterday's low, so did Dow, but SPX and RUT did not...thinking SPX needs to go below yesterday's low to complete the wave structure, feels like the market is on hold till that happens, maybe, maybe not..???

My wildest prediction is for "Up".
In this chart hourly is dominant over others. 5/15 minutes already in Buy, 30 minutes half buy. Same shade for ribbon and bottom bar indicate entry/exit.