06/05/2012 Live Update

[louie]

XLF break below 13ish, could see an acceleration down.

Nice chart fehro, I had the same pattern, but I don't think the channel will be relevant going forward, think maybe the pendant will be more relevant in that financials are f'd, unless they announce massive QE! My trend line has support around 12.60 ish depending on the time frame.

That trend line is key! If we were to go below that trend line, then the bear market is coming faster than I thought...

NICE!

[BullBear52x]

The old man once said " be greedy when everyone is fearful"

[Cobra]

lunch time will be back, still need see more bars before confirming my evil plan.

[Mr. T]

Cobra, since this is a flat day - isn't that bullish as it's deceleration and not an bounce up that auto-fails (the whole moving car has to stop first thing)?

[BullBear52x]

5 min. sell on FAS, lets see how strong the bear can pressure this time.

[louie]

BB: off topic - but "shipmate"? were you Navy?

[BullBear52x]

BB: off topic - but "shipmate"? were you Navy?

desert shield era.

[louie]

BB: off topic - but "shipmate"? were you Navy?

desert shield era.

I have a niece, Master Chief and still in, that was there

[louie]

BB: off topic - but "shipmate"? were you Navy?

desert shield era.

I have a niece, Master Chief and still in, that was there

Naval Air!

[Mr. BachNut]

ES action seems cleaner and less noisy with clearer trendlines than the underlying lately.
Note declining tops line pierced today and there is a shot at closing above the line (better chances tomorrow).
RSI divergence (purple arrows) taking shape.
Three push down (5 wave) structure box checked.

Bears need to get back to work or else next down draft may only be a bottom test or token low.

[louie]

ES action seems cleaner and less noisy with clearer trendlines than the underlying lately.
Note declining tops line pierced today and there is a shot at closing above the line (better chances tomorrow).
RSI divergence (purple arrows) taking shape.
Three push down (5 wave) structure box checked.

Bears need to get back to work or else next down draft may only be a bottom test or token low.

ES060512.jpg

And XLF is still showing enough strength to back that move up. (opinion)

[taggard]

BB: I agree with you and please don't take that comment personally. I would love the see financials take off (up) so I can short them. I just don't like the current business models of the big banks and insurers. But I also really don't want our financial system to fail. Why can't they just straighten up and fly right?

LOL, petty officer Louie, do what it take to make money it's not about being right or wrong, I am fine being wrong but make money rather than being right but losing.

(1) as traders we just take trades--ethics etc is not of the job description.
(2) as human beings (so the other 17-18 hours a day) we had better learn to understand what is right or wrong or it will--in some form--be our asses.
(3) as for the banks and insurance guys--they are in the middle of the kali dance in all senses of the idea. creative and destructive are parts of the same thing and the business models are in the process of change. it's very hard to be in the middle of this ugly stuff--but history has shown situations have a beginning middle and end--and then comes another beginning middle etc. We are getting closer to some sort of reset on this cycle every day. Really bad ideas eventually choke and are replaced with slightly less bad ideas. which in turn choke and are replaced with slightly less bad ideas.

what seems key is to be careful about forgetting where you are in the cycle and remember your ideas and actions have impact on the people and whatever around you. it's critical not to lose sight in the middle of the battle of who you are and become for all intents a bot.

so i agree with BB that it's not about what is "right and wrong" in trading but also Louie in the sense that "these business models" (eg cancer like growth that eventually kills the host since there is no rational control of growth based on the idea that if you kill the medium you are growing in you die too) are "wrong" (or "non-optimal"). i disagree about caring too much about the outcome in the sense of "failure of the econ system". it's like being a mammal and being upset you are eating dinosaur eggs. sadly eggs must be broken to make omelettes

it's not the end of the world if the system hits reset--rather it's a demonstration that the people involved refused to learn until a sort of critical mass was achieved. Naturally everyone would prefer that people (and that means us too) could learn--prior to some massive feed back event--but if not we will learn after that at least for a generation or part of one. it's just an endless cycle.

again sure seems like the key is not to forget who you are when you are engaged in this stuff--and to be able to leave it at the door at the end of your trading day whenever that is for you. and never waste a "mistake" or "failed conceptual evolutionary concept". the more you can learn from these things the less ugly the feed back loop has to be. which is better for you and everyone else usually. and not just in trading but in every part of life.

the bank problem just like the euro zone problem just like pollution etc--are problems that evolve over time--we get exposed to them--and as they get messed up the exposure gets more frequent until it becomes sort of non stop (like greece in the media). how many repetitions does it take you to become aware of the issue? is the problem we are trying to solve. the fewer repetitions the more fluid and effortless the change. the more repetitions (warnings clues etc) the more dire and messed up the change. either way that change is going to happen in some form at some time.

good luck to all

[TraderGirl]

Do we have a VIX buy signal...?? Usually good for 5-7 days.

Positive energy into 13-15th on energy graphs, with volatility of course....
down Friday possibly into Monday, but don't know if it will be a lower low, energy graphs showing a big spike into the 13-15th...

[louie]

Very well spoken taggard! I'm ready for that "reset. But I never said anything about "failure of the econ system". I said "financial system", ie: runs on banks, etc. Although we can live with that and even get over it, it would certainly not be a pretty sight. Would love to see us salvage now rather than pay dearly later.

[Cobra]

target. looks like indeed my first guess not completed yet. bulls need make a decisive new high in order to invalidate my plan.

[CarlosDK]

Cobra target is SPY 129.36 right ?

[Al_Dente]

bots r not buying this
but nyadv 2000 is
resistance SSO 48.61 is right here

[BullBear52x]

something is not right, me confused. neither confirm the direction, Dollar or Commo one is lying.

[MrMiyagi]

SPX might top here today;

[Cobra]

anyway, I believe I made the 1st score. will need see if bulls can make a decisive new high to decide whether I need change my plan. for now maintain the plan.