08/01/2012 Live Update

[taggard]

[quote="CounterTrend"]Paul Volcker: “The U.S. economic arsenal is empty.”

Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has spoken the words that have been on everyone’s mind…”American policymakers have exhausted fiscal and monetary policy remedies in their bid to cure the US economy’s growth blues, legendary inflation tamer Paul Volcker said”. He also said “there is no magic bullet in fiscal or monetary policy. We have pretty much fired all the bullets we have”.

Nice--and typically not noted by many. the real issue here is that this event is happening here--just about the same thing is happening in the euro zone and japan. This is optimal for "a problem". But also a solution. What we need here is for people to get to the point where they all lose confidence in the existing thinking or if you like the central banks/govs. At that point finally we are in a position to do something different. How different is anyone's guess--but the really amazing part has been sitting here year after year watching this unfold. it seems impossible because it appears so obvious.

So yes the fed can do qe3 and could even do something massive like 1-1.5 trillion either in one shot or in 2-3 mini shots. and yes the euro banks can do one big or several big bond buys. But none of this does a thing to solve any of the underlying problems. There is a lot of focus on how this buys time--with the idea that "time heals all wounds" but as any old guy will tell you "time creates new wounds". The big problem in this country is the infrastructure/and looming retirement pension explosions. What you have is a need to spend say 3-6 trillion at the same time you have the babyboomers bail and most of them not having more than 25k in cash on hand. This is the problem after the problem.


what i get out of all this stuff is--the global economy is in a delicate situation for 3-7 years during this time--conditions are ideal for some sort of serious market upset. But that this period will eventually setup a very interesting 20-30 year period after that. you hate to see it play this way--and wish people would choose to discard ideas because of their obvious limitations or up front bogus nature. The trick to change is somehow giving up the old way/idea and switching to the new way/idea.

meanwhile--the best thing we can do is learn from other's mistakes. so how do we bail our bad habits of thought--and move towards a solution in a way other than being beat over the head first? my personal take is that it's all about not being afraid of the unknown. part of that means admitting we actually have no clue half the time at least. part of it is seeing trends in our own lives as well as trading. part of it is taking shots in areas other than the one's that can't work despite we can't prove they can work prior to taking the shot.

a guy is under the street light looking for his keys. a cop asks him "what are you doing?". the guy explains and the cop helps him for 10 min and then asks--"where were you the last time you had them". the guy says down the block when i got out of my car" the cop says "so why not look for them down there?" the guy says "yeah i thought of that but the light is better here". Sigh.

[taggard]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/08/st ... ince-1985/

best argument for 1550-1610 out there

[MrMiyagi]

!!!!SPX 1600!!!!

[gappy]

th.jpg

Or?

[Petsamo]

still nothing to say, the market is waiting.

Probably for 2:15

[MrMiyagi]

RUT falling falling....

[Cobra]

still the 60 min chart doesn't look bad for bulls. don't know if Fed call would change everything dramatically.

[MrMiyagi]

still the 60 min chart doesn't look bad for bulls. don't know if Fed call would change everything dramatically.

Russell 2000 not participating in standoff, behaving like the French army.

[gappy]

jump_off_cliff.jpg

RUT falling falling....

[MrMiyagi]

jump_off_cliff.jpg (37.03 KiB) Viewed 4653 times

[KeiZai]

RUSSELL

775 is next sup

[MrMiyagi]

Cancel Christmas.

[jdow]

IWM.....

th.jpg

Or?

[jdow]

jump_off_cliff.jpg

[Petsamo]

WLT reports after hours. It's very oversold

[gappy]

WLT reports after hours. It's very oversold

Equity Summary Score; neutral at 3.7 per Fidelity web. Earning est; .36 to .38. Dividend usually .13.

[KeiZai]

channel backtest or reversal doji? IMO backtest

[MrMiyagi]

TRIN still bullish 0.86.

[Cobra]

25 min to go. still nothing to say.

[BullBear52x]

this should indicate the high of the day is over, unless, huge reversal occurred.