11/06/2012 Live Update

[Jack12]

SPX: It feels and so far it looks like a wave (C) in progress (of a Zig Zag)

thanks, nice informed site

[Me XMan]

Still got shorts...bear ain't dead yet.

consolidation here is not bad for bulls.

[KENA]

AAPL doesn't seem to know which way is up

AAPL has to get close to 560 area then up???? maybe.IMO.

[EvilTrader]

Cobra expecting a rally after elections ?

Or a sell-off ?


Odds ???


Im a sub, help me !!

[Cobra]

volume surge, EMA20, so may see rebound here. I don't like this pullback as it's a little large, so might have another small leg.

[MrMiyagi]

It was a fake out. Obama just shorted the entire market.

[TraderJoe]

It was a fake out. Obama just shorted the entire market.

More likely Boner

[TraderGirl]

Been buying dips...Dow made a lower low on the 5th, looks like it had 5 waves down...but SPX and NDX did not get lower lows...

We could see another dip this week or around the 9/12th...

We could be up into the end of December....

[Xian]

folks, Obama wins = Bernank presses keep printing until he decides to retire. gold and stocks screaming this loud and clear. don't think it has to be any more complicated than that

Yes, BUT, the big money is not buying today, to light of volume..

You think they're waiting to make sure we get a decision tonight?

OR is this going to be a sell the news? The O victory is priced in?

Either way, It'll be a about 2 seconds of afterglow before the fiscal cliff talk starts. (Most probable outcome there: stop-gap/kick the can into the spring/wait for new congress)

[Petsamo]

folks, Obama wins = Bernank presses keep printing until he decides to retire. gold and stocks screaming this loud and clear. don't think it has to be any more complicated than that

Yes, BUT, the big money is not buying today, to light of volume..

You think they're waiting to make sure we get a decision tonight?

OR is this going to be a sell the news? The O victory is priced in?

Either way, It'll be a about 2 seconds of afterglow before the fiscal cliff talk starts. (Most probable outcome there: stop-gap/kick the can into the spring/wait for new congress)

If Barry wins, I become a doom & gloomer ... like TraderGirl

[Al_Dente]

Al. No statistical data on PALL (black line) leading or not. From eyeballing it on longer charts there could be something there. I bought a little NUGT this morning when I posted about possibly "kissing before heading up" mainly because PALL was up so much. Probably just lucky but will continue to monitor for validity. Nice move in GDX

Hi clark
I’m just popping in and out
Full house here
I won’t be able to shake off all the relatives until Friday
I won’t contribute much until then

They just unveiled this present 4 me in the back yard

[Petsamo]

Here comes the downleg

[ClarkW]

Al. No statistical data on PALL (black line) leading or not. From eyeballing it on longer charts there could be something there. I bought a little NUGT this morning when I posted about possibly "kissing before heading up" mainly because PALL was up so much. Probably just lucky but will continue to monitor for validity. Nice move in GDX

Hi clark
I’m just popping in and out
Full house here
I won’t be able to shake off all the relatives until Friday
I won’t contribute much until then

They just unveiled this present 4 me in the back yard

book house.png

HA! No smoking allowed

[TraderGirl]

Check out TZA...sitting at support of broadening wedge...

needs to find support here if we are going to see another pullback...

[Xian]

folks, Obama wins = Bernank presses keep printing until he decides to retire. gold and stocks screaming this loud and clear. don't think it has to be any more complicated than that

Yes, BUT, the big money is not buying today, to light of volume..

You think they're waiting to make sure we get a decision tonight?

OR is this going to be a sell the news? The O victory is priced in?

Either way, It'll be a about 2 seconds of afterglow before the fiscal cliff talk starts. (Most probable outcome there: stop-gap/kick the can into the spring/wait for new congress)

If Barry wins, I become a doom & gloomer ... like TraderGirl

lol! I never thought of her that way!

I know you want Willard, but please just do me a favor and prepare your portfolio for the possibility that it might be O

[Al_Dente]

Al. No statistical data on PALL (black line) leading or not. From eyeballing it on longer charts there could be something there. I bought a little NUGT this morning when I posted about possibly "kissing before heading up" mainly because PALL was up so much. Probably just lucky but will continue to monitor for validity. Nice move in GDX

ps: nice buy on the nougat

[fehro]

some upper targets trend lines, if we continue up in the short term. fwiw.

[Cobra]

so far goes as planed.

[737controller]

MR MIAYGI

Any p-bars on APPL that you can see?

[Xian]

Gaming out election probabilities and market reactions:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11743844 ... itics.html

Cut and Pasted with a grain of salt:

Possible Election Outcomes and Probabilities

A relatively comfortable electoral college win by Obama in which the Democrats keep control of the Senate -- 40% probability (baseline expectation): The fiscal drag is about 1%-1.5%, and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-2%. Republicans briefly oppose Democratic policy but quickly acquiesce to Democrat policy initiatives. Stocks are range-bound and have limited downside (S&P 500 1390-1400) and limited upside (S&P 500 1450-1470) over the balance of the year.

A narrow Obama presidential win and the Democrats retain control of the Senate -- 15% probability: The fiscal drag is 1.5%-2% (Republicans' opposition to Democratic policy continues for a few months, but, ultimately, they acquiesce. Stocks are range-bound and have limited downside (1390-1400) and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.

A narrow Obama presidential win and the Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 10% probability: The fiscal drag is 1.5%-2.5% (as partisanship escalates), and 2013 real GDP is barely positive. Stocks have 1350-1400 downside and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.
A narrow Romney presidential win and Democrats keep control of the Senate -- 20% probability: The fiscal drag is 2%-3% (as partisanship intensifies), and 2013 real GDP is flat to negative. After an initial but brief market rally, stocks have 1350-1400 downside and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.

A narrow Romney presidential win and Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 10% probability: The fiscal drag is 1%-2% -- Democrats' opposition to Republican policy continues for a while but begins to abate as time moves forward -- and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-1.5%. Stocks have limited downside (1390-1400) and limited upside (1450-1470) over the balance of the year.

A relatively comfortable electoral college win by Romney and Republicans regain control of the Senate -- 5% probability: The fiscal drag is about 1.0%-1.5% -- Democrats' opposition to Republican policy continues for a brief period after which they give in to the Republican agenda -- and 2013 real GDP growth is 1%-2%. Stocks will likely rally in the near term. Over the balance of the year, equities would have limited downside (1390-1400) and upside to about 1470-1500.

Notice how they all end up more or less the same? Range of approx 1390-1470?