GDX daily
Look what happened last time BPGDM was below 20 and 10 (april to july last year, pink circles)
BPGDM was 3.33 last night EOD (lowest since 2008)
Today's market action is very different. Huge volume on e-mini, nymo bearish, neutral tick reading, market at all time high grinding lower suggest that profit taking is going on by the traders who bet on dow making all time high. Traders loosing money for last 3 months suddenly feel bullish, so are buying, but they were all loosers, so they can freek out quickly causing the sell off, but if they could hold and profit takers bull returns back, it can fuel a big rally from here. Bonds also selling off so where is the money going in gold???
bonzodon wrote:Today's market action is very different. Huge volume on e-mini, nymo bearish, neutral tick reading, market at all time high grinding lower suggest that profit taking is going on by the traders who bet on dow making all time high. Traders loosing money for last 3 months suddenly feel bullish, so are buying, but they were all loosers, so they can freek out quickly causing the sell off, but if they could hold and profit takers bull returns back, it can fuel a big rally from here. Bonds also selling off so where is the money going in gold???
The SPY gap at the beginning of the year was a measuring gap, and the measured move would have been satisfied around the Feb. 19 high (pre-correction).
Yesterday, we had a SPY gap which took us above said high.
As exhaustion gaps come at the end of moves, yesterday's gap should be watched.
If it is closed quickly, it may be an exhaustion gap. If it isn't, that tells us something too.
Volume was lacking yesterday, but volume tells have been different in this bull market.
Why Long Term Buy and Hold High Yield Dividend Investors Will Outperform Swing & Day Traders Going Forward
1) Commission costs will not outweigh the benefits of small price moves in a low volatility environment. The index will not make large enough swings to justify the time, energy and cost associated with short-term trading. It has become somewhat amusing to watch people predict the next 0.25% move in the S&P. Why bother?
2) The 10 day moving average of the VIX has stayed below 20 for more than 6 months, triggering a major change in the way an investor should think about the markets. These volatility cycles are common and a low volatility era, defined by the 10 day average never rising above 20 for multiple years, is now overdue.
3) In this low volatility era, dividend stocks are preferred to compensate for time in market. Long only portfolios will outperform hedge funds on stocks (though bond, currency and commodity hedge funds could still perform). Corrections will be minimal, therefore the cost of hedging outweighs the benefits of hedging. In the money calls should be preferred over out of the money, since price swings will be minimal.
bonzodon wrote:Today's market action is very different. Huge volume on e-mini, nymo bearish, neutral tick reading, market at all time high grinding lower suggest that profit taking is going on by the traders who bet on dow making all time high. Traders loosing money for last 3 months suddenly feel bullish, so are buying, but they were all loosers, so they can freek out quickly causing the sell off, but if they could hold and profit takers bull returns back, it can fuel a big rally from here. Bonds also selling off so where is the money going in gold???
You know all my indicators are bearish today, my top indicator is flipping a coin which came tail very bearish, did not see my neighbors black cat, so bearish and H&S on 5min was successful, so marking the top bearish.... lets see