08/31/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The most important weekend story is Smart Money covered a lot. So they're done with reducing their longs?

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling action chart from stocktiming shows institutional distribution is decreasing. This is a positive divergence.

[Cobra]

II and AAII.

[Cobra]

Summary of the weekly stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1039&p=140937#p140937

[Cobra]

Stock picks for next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1046&p=140941#p140941

[xfradnex]

http://news.yahoo.com/sixth-u-ship-now- ... 21221.html

[Al_Dente]

NOT MARKET RELATED …. this is just plain cool
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/08/hi ... Picture%29

And for Willie Nelson fans:
http://www.texasmonthly.com/story/trigger

[Auole]

Neat! I'm ready for a video of Al D. dancing his favorite
Cobra - Excellent chart guidance on member's updates. I've a clue it could maybe up next week. will post chart later.

[Al_Dente]

Perhaps the one to watch is IWM
It’s bearish when the small caps weaken and lead down with a lower low (but with a bullish falling wedge?), while most of the other indices are deciding what to do at double bottoms (usually bullish, but we can’t confirm until it holds there, solidly)
A relief bounce is certainly not guaranteed, but it shouldn’t be a surprise….

[ps: hi auole, please post something gold if u are so inclined thanks]

[joegamma]

Excellent members report Cobra!
Wondering about the hdge divergence too, maybe its messed up "Only In The Age QE infinity"...

MA x-over for trend followers, OEX moved to neutral based on 20/50 dma, Sp 400, 500, and 600 will cross south without a huge rally early this week...Dow Util, Staples were already neutral based on 20/50, and financials headed south Friday...

I think rallies are for selling, looking out next few weeks, have not seen explosion in trin and/or big spike in downvolume (top panel trin-dnv ratio should drop below .002)....of course, this could be wrong, but seems like more downside is due

[joegamma]

fOLLOWING nEW hIGH TO ADVANCER RATIO (ratio idea source from Morris' Breadth Book), whenever the weekly 19/39/100 ma crosses south, the weekly price will hit lower keltner channel before its over....

Late spring 2012 failed to tag bottom keltner, but we had more than a couple red weeks...this ratio says its a bear market to me, FWIW

[joegamma]

DaytradeES has a Gann thread in investor lounge thread, playing with this chart from a few weeks ago, the green fibo fan on IWM is interesting, wish I had traded it last week tested, bonced, closed well under it but seems odd %BB did not follow.

99 handle coming this week or a bounce in the smalls?
minor concerns with the bullish macd histo divergence,

[Al_Dente]

Currently only 13% of the Dow stocks are above their 50 day moving average (second panel).
But note (pink boxes) last November it got as low as 3%, and in August 2011 it hit 0% just prior to a very bumpy bottom.

The percent of stocks above their 200 day moving average, which is longer term, shows that there could be much further down to go…

[ultramarine]

FWIW, the stars are strongly indicating a military strike sometime next week (after the 9th). Moreover, there is a sense that the strikes will not quite go as planned. I would think this would be negative for stocks. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming...

Thanks for the charts, guys. Some very tasty grist for the mill there.

http://www.modernvedicastrology.com/oba ... eptember-2

[kongen]

I am curious whether any board members follow the work of Reel Ken. He proposes a variety of intermediate to long-term strategies using SPY options. One example I am following is to buy an ATM put about one year out (the Anchor), then sell weekly DeepITM puts calculated to give an extrinsic value of Anchor/52, thereby paying the cost of the Anchor. I also buy Anchor calls, then sell weekly OTM calls calculated to give an extrinsic value of Anchor/52. It also works well for stocks.

Reel Ken wrote many articles for SA in 2012, before SA made the incomprehensible move to stop publishing options articles. All the articles contain gems, but it is very important to read all the comments, which are continuing to this day. One place to start might be “Selling Puts And Calls: A Better Recipe”

[Al_Dente]

Biggest percentage down in the $OEX 100 on Friday: EBAY
At double bottom and gap support

COBRA THIS PAYPAL NEWS MAY IMPACT YOU? (good news?)
Obviously the market wasn’t very impressed
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1252202

[Al_Dente]

“Now you can walk into your local Apple store and swap your old iPhone for a brand new one.”
“…You can get up to $336 for a 16GB iPhone 5, or up to $221 for a 16GB iPhone 4S. That’s more than enough to cover the cost of a brand new iPhone with a two-year contract.”
Apple is set “ to announce new iPhones at a press event on September 10."
So "...save your trade-in for a few weeks.”
http://www.cultofmac.com/243162/apple-c ... ide-today/

Double bottom.
The RSI positive divergence is on the intraday charts but not on the daily charts

[fehro]

Sept should be a violative month....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 36780.html

[fehro]

“Now you can walk into your local Apple store and swap your old iPhone for a brand new one.”
“…You can get up to $336 for a 16GB iPhone 5, or up to $221 for a 16GB iPhone 4S. That’s more than enough to cover the cost of a brand new iPhone with a two-year contract.”
Apple is set “ to announce new iPhones at a press event on September 10."
So "...save your trade-in for a few weeks.”
http://www.cultofmac.com/243162/apple-c ... ide-today/

Double bottom.
The RSI positive divergence is on the intraday charts but not on the daily charts

91aapl 30_png.png

This "may" but some downward pressure on AAPL early next week.... depending on how awesome it is.. Wed Sept 4. 1pm EST

http://gma.yahoo.com/samsung-galaxy-gea ... ories.html

[Al_Dente]

Outflows continue
"We think the shift was due mostly to institutions unwinding badly timed bullish bets on U.S. equities," TrimTabs wrote to clients.
(TrimTabs is THE respected source for fund flow info)
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/flow-equi ... 0.html?l=1

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRhhNPBPGyU

Vote Snake today AND Monday: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859