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For now, I'll read the pattern as Bull Flag, so it's a little bit bullish biased.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... ay-update/

From Hightower fwiw. GLTA the 13th.

cobra good morning when you get a chance . do you see a bull flag on apple ? on the 60 min

Are options traders having problems with orders?

• *CBOE SAYS FIX USERS ON C2 PROBLEMS W/ORDERS, CANCELS, QUOTES
• *CBOE: SOME USERS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS ROUTING ORDERS

Gap Support?

U Mich Sentiment at 10 ET

grachu wrote:cobra good morning when you get a chance . do you see a bull flag on apple ? on the 60 min

no. If you mean bear flag, yes, it's broken already. I just updated the members only intra-day update.

Good morning,

With regards to SPX, the overhead resistance can be defined as follows :

There is a Positive Price Reversal on the 15 & 60 min RSI(14) that calculates out to 1693.6
(If this is not met before a failure swing on the RSI, it can be indicative of a minor trend change.)
The 78.6% retrace of the August decline = 1692.1
The backtest of the broken neckline from the July/August top = 1693.9 for 9/13

There have been 21 closes between 1680 and 1700 since July, and only 3 closes above that.

Here is my wall of worry that may help cause spy to break down (in no particular order):

Syria
10yr exceeding 3%
Tapering
U.S Budget debate
Debt ceiling debate
Fed Chair replacement
Housing slowdown


Did I miss anything significant for the next 4 weeks!!!

testing yesterday's low, might at least a pause here. noticed RSP has already taken yesterday's low so the bias favors bears a little here.

not trading today so I might as well post and embarrass myself!

H/L est 1692.50 1682.75 9.75

last Friday was a "down N"

good luck to all... :}

Net long. Carrying long and short.

My summation signal is up.
My composite trend signal is up.
I have an ARMs sell warning into next week. Breaking this week's high would cancel it.

I remain cautious.
The ARMs sell warning may have triggered yesterday. Breaking yesterday's lows if it happens may be a confirmation.
I put on some short as a hedge (not big). I'll be out of it if the morning high is broken.
If the signal is a goer, closing the Monday gap may be a good target.

I think this P-Bar can come off the to do list.
That's what I call a flash tag...

Additionally, on SPX the ADX is falling and <20, and below both the DI+ and DI- on the 15 min, 60 min, and Daily time frames.
This is interpreted as meaning that there is "no trend - use patterns, support and resistance, oscillator divergences and failures." And so, I propose that a fall below 1677 could presage a minor trend reversal. And, if seen as a lower high on the Daily chart, something more (really getting ahead of myself on that one).

As a caveat, the 5, 20, and 50 day sma's are all rising and below price. Although, the 20 and 50 are not bullishly aligned (yet).

Corn long failed. Perhaps high corn prices are a thing of the past and the larger trend is down.

Coffee consolidating under 200MA 4-hour TF and down sloping trend line
took a small loss on gold long (don't like the weak reaction at this level) if we manage an "eve" bottom here and get the MAs back to bullish I may try again. If this level holds.

Semi/crude shorts going as planned.

long IACI, END.

pbar on SPY