Cobra's Market View

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NORMALLY, this bull shall have legs.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/10 ... ay-update/

So to me this looks like a perfect head and shoulders top with a test of the neckline on the DOW. If the neckline breaks then we have two possible targets. The measured move and the one with Bulkowski's percentage. Either way we know the direction and the range IF we break the neckline. This is on the weekly chart.

smith wrote:

indu101013.png

So to me this looks like a perfect head and shoulders top with a test of the neckline on the DOW. If the neckline breaks then we have two possible targets. The measured move and the one with Bulkowski's percentage. Either way we know the direction and the range IF we break the neckline. This is on the weekly chart.

I feel a H&S is weakened the more sloping the neckline is.
So one would be safer using a horizontal drawn from the low between your LS and head as the point where it was confirmed if it breaks to the downside.

Is it time for SPY to hit the p-bar at 167.51?

Yesterday's 10min with a possible pattern:

one of the reasons I used the slanting neckline is because the underlying trend is upward sloping, but your point is taken. I also added the fib extension from the low to the first high... the retracement fits the 61.8% on the measured move. It all "fits" nicely..... we will see what Mr Market wants to do.

daytradingES wrote:

smith wrote:

The attachment indu101013.png is no longer available

So to me this looks like a perfect head and shoulders top with a test of the neckline on the DOW. If the neckline breaks then we have two possible targets. The measured move and the one with Bulkowski's percentage. Either way we know the direction and the range IF we break the neckline. This is on the weekly chart.

I feel a H&S is weakened the more sloping the neckline is.
So one would be safer using a horizontal drawn from the low between your LS and head as the point where it was confirmed if it breaks to the downside.

This article articulates and spells out the gold/silver/gdx price quandery very clearly. At the moment attitude is positive to the USD, Yellen, pro-QE for economic stimulus. The USD is trying to recover from down trend and has yet to make a higher low; weekly (chart) just attempting to turn positive. GC futs is black. If when it does make higher low and goes no lower than approx. .7978 gold price stuck. Put the two, gold-USD on daily comparison they do at times move together. Stlwater - what you think?
http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold- ... ews-186720
a few excerpts: "...the deepening impasse in Washington....has occurred alongside a prolonged stabilization in USD, despite threats of a default and the announcement that the Federal Reserve’s most famous policy dove, Janet Yellen. ....USD bulls could focus on the hawkish narrative from the minutes, siding with the currency until the October 17 deadline looms."

L_T wrote:Is it time for SPY to hit the p-bar at 167.51?

Tagged it. That was fast!

Update:

I had an open pbar from Tuesday, at 167.73 which is now closed.
Happy trading.
A

$UPRO: I am out.

Update:

SPX 60m, 5m.... invs H&S target met

The Premkt has 2 dn P Bars at 165.57 and 165.87.. Pre mkt not as dependable but has been recently..Lets see.

ISEE big market jump signals were a few days early
SPX still targets 1970
Mining stocks next big up?

Update:

Long a little Dow. Short a little VIX.

My summation index signal is down.
My composite trend signal is down.

I got an oversold signal on the summation model Tuesday.
That combined with a eumpel signal (Thanks eumpel! ) and a Bradley Turn had me headed for the exit with trailing profit stops on shorts which hit overnight.
I put some Dow on yesterday on a discretionary basis. It tagged the 200 day MA. I also had a VIX setup trigger at the close yesterday, which is effectively long equities.
I view these as bounce trades to exploit a correction of oversold conditions and plan to be out before long.
There is room for a dip/retest of the lows in the range of outcomes. So, that would have to be managed, but I hope Mr. Market doesn't bother.
Bigger picture, the trend remains down until further notice, and the expectation is that shorts will get reloaded at some point (next week?) unless the bulls are able to turn the signals.

Another dynamic to keep in mind is that next week is OPEX and VIX contract expiration. So, the Jackals will be busy cleaning wrong way people's clocks.
Could be trickier than usual as without a COT report, due to the shutdown, the commercial hedgers get to play with a Harry Potter cloak of invisibility.

Auole wrote:This article articulates and spells out the gold/silver/gdx price quandery very clearly. At the moment attitude is positive to the USD, Yellen, pro-QE for economic stimulus. The USD is trying to recover from down trend and has yet to make a higher low; weekly (chart) just attempting to turn positive. GC futs is black. If when it does make higher low and goes no lower than approx. .7978 gold price stuck. Put the two, gold-USD on daily comparison they do at times move together. Stlwater - what you think?
http://www.investing.com/analysis/gold- ... ews-186720
a few excerpts: "...the deepening impasse in Washington....has occurred alongside a prolonged stabilization in USD, despite threats of a default and the announcement that the Federal Reserve’s most famous policy dove, Janet Yellen. ....USD bulls could focus on the hawkish narrative from the minutes, siding with the currency until the October 17 deadline looms."

DXgcwk9oct13.png

My view, based on prior market conditions of that are similar is that at points where correlations begin to change you will see them trade together for a while, usually during the choppy turns in the market when volatility begins to rise (now). I am not even slightly surprised to see gold and miners down with the market at THIS time. The USD has gotten yet another bearish cross of the moving averages and I see this rally (USD) as corrective, same with oil, and any market strength. My expectation is that once the market finds a bottom in the next few weeks, gold and miners will as well, and since they've already experienced a sizable correction they may hold up better than the market overall at this time. A double bottom would not be too surprising however as it provides more TA juice. The point at which I would expect the divergence to begin is after the bounce off the market lows, probably shortly after Christmas. Once the market has topped out again (either with a lower high, or a double top) gold and miners should CONTINUE upward while the market begins a major move down to the lower trendline off the 2008 lows. Way out projection is that if the market breaks its lower trendline off the 2008 lows, then miners and gold will take collateral damage, along with everything else. Obviously there are some (particularly those who profit more when the gold trade is off the table) who are calling very bearish outcomes for gold (brokerage firms).

Utilities are taking a big drop..If this continues the mkt may start moving dn..Lets see.