Cobra's Market View

Institutional buying and selling action chart from stocktiming shows some divergence: New high but blue curve (means accumulation) not making new high, while red curve (means distribution) not making new low. Sometimes it just needs time to fix divergence, so maybe the problem would be fixed later or maybe not, so it's a minor warning.

Still no COT report, so smart money chart no update.

II and AAII. AAII is a little bit bullish now.

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1088&p=145253#p145253

preview of the stock picks for the next week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1095&p=145255#p145255

Time for me to shoot the lock off the wallet and draw upon some emergency funds to prepare to possibly average down on my shorts (if the market keeps rallying). Now 7 straight green elder bars up on SPY. 100% of the time, SPY falls back to that 7th bar, as far as I can tell. Current plan is to wait to see if it rallies up to some silly number and short a bunch more if so. An extremely high percentage play.

Its war!

FYI.

A few P-Bar fossils were unearthed this week.
Now all upside P-Bars this year have been cleared. (I know...duh, we are at all time highs).
There remain a few downside fossils. It would take roughly a 10% correction from here to clear them all.
This is all very very most likely chance and coincidence, but it is fun to observe that a surprising number of these P-Bars do get hit eventually...

Thank you Miyagi!

IWM up 7 weeks in a row. Only 3 other cases in the history I have. 2 out of 3 red the next week.

Standard deviation chart
SPX just entered the red zone (nearing 3 standard deviations above 50ma).
It doesn’t stay there long, usually a couple of days…
HOWEVER, note the red paper clips show that in May it stayed in the red zone for 14 trading days.
There is no supply up here in this rarefied air, only demand

The Horowitz “Key Reversal Indicator” is in the hot zone
“The potential for a Key Reversal is high over the next few days. Caution … is warranted.”
http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/b ... nvestor%29

Re-post of heavyweight Tom Demark’s 10/14 interview
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... days-ahead

“The market’s going to have one more rally, then once we get above that high, I think it’s going to be more treacherous...”
“If you look at the new highs and new lows.. every time we made a higher high, there were fewer stocks in the index participating in that high.
It’s getting narrower... And once that happens, you typically get a collapse…I’m just saying it’s something to consider.”

My 2 cents: we are now inside that “one more rally.”
And regarding the new highs: Friday we hit 894 highs, which is comparable to the push in jan and may, and both those times the market still had
more juice left. But the new lows are now creeping up (70 on friday) into the “caution zone.”

Bull insurance, "Dragon Kings", predicting perturbations. http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/ ... 101713.php http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornett ... risis.html

Best charts of the day from “Asymco” via barry

This grid system suggests that it's not "up, up and away" and that SPX will come back down eventually. Only very few breaks of upside resistance (red or green) did not end with a reversal down to resistance (now support) or even show a break to the downside. My count is that 10 breaks ended in reversals versus 3 breaks which were not retraced...

[quote="Al_Dente"]Re-post of heavyweight Tom Demark’s 10/14 interview
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/20 ... days-ahead

“The market’s going to have one more rally, then once we get above that high, I think it’s going to be more treacherous...”
“If you look at the new highs and new lows.. every time we made a higher high, there were fewer stocks in the index participating in that high.
It’s getting narrower... And once that happens, you typically get a collapse…I’m just saying it’s something to consider.”

My 2 cents: we are now inside that “one more rally.”
And regarding the new highs: Friday we hit 894 highs, which is comparable to the push in jan and may, and both those times the market still had
more juice left. But the new lows are now creeping up (70 on friday) into the “caution zone.”

Nice TA DrAl. One more thing; we can see the current run up is the steepest on the chart for the amount days involved (esp. another overbought indicator). I still cannot understand why this move up coincides with one of the biggest money crises in US history. We only kicked the can down the road a very short distance. However, we are in the 2nd best investing month of the year (Nov is third) for SPY. The week coming up is neutral; the week after that (44) is the 2nd strongest of the year. .

I am looking for a formula to estimate the H&L with the information from the o/n data and the prior days info.

I can't see anything at the moment - feeling a little brain dead.
Perhaps someone else has some ideas.

SKEW has a history of anticipating corrections (in a hand grenades and horseshoes kind of way).
The SKEW surge early this year, however, was a predictive flop.

In any case, a new surge is underway. So, perhaps there is something stewing for the weeks ahead.
I was surprised by the Friday close. With everything rosy, I assumed SKEW would have declined.
Instead, we have the high weekly close for the year.
It may have been OPEX related, but it is notable.

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Queue the fat lady. Even more so now that movements in the market have been largely "hidden" since the shutdown (how convenient).