04/13/2011 Intraday Watering

[BullBear52x]

SPY 132 is now short term resistance.

[FJoe]

Cobra,

Seems as though everyone is in the bear camp short term, with views the market will rebound at 1275, 1290, 1300 or 1305 (among those bullish longer term). A few bullish longer term still think 1200 to 1220 is possible. Seems like 131.20ish shouldn't get taken out on a daily basis.

Any indicators you use that point to a low yesterday, and this is the retest of that low and we head higher. Only thing I can come up with is that the 20 day and 50 day moving average on the S&P has more or less held. An indicator (I use 34 periods for the Williams %R) and it usually bullish above 65 and bearish below 35...is still in the bullish zone on a daily basis...but it must not falter or we should see lower prices in the days ahead. Really asking from a swing term perspective...as this is a good long entry point with a stop below the low of yesterday.

Thoughts?

[Cobra]

Cobra,

Seems as though everyone is in the bear camp short term, with views the market will rebound at 1275, 1290, 1300 or 1305 (among those bullish longer term). A few bullish longer term still think 1200 to 1220 is possible. Seems like 131.20ish shouldn't get taken out on a daily basis.

Any indicators you use that point to a low yesterday, and this is the retest of that low and we head higher. Only thing I can come up with is that the 20 day and 50 day moving average on the S&P has more or less held. An indicator (I use 34 periods for the Williams %R) and it usually bullish above 65 and bearish below 35...is still in the bullish zone on a daily basis...but it must not falter or we should see lower prices in the days ahead. Really asking from a swing term perspective...as this is a good long entry point with a stop below the low of yesterday.

Thoughts?

all I can say here are the long setup I mentioned yesterday are still valid.

[Cobra]

Cobra,

Seems as though everyone is in the bear camp short term, with views the market will rebound at 1275, 1290, 1300 or 1305 (among those bullish longer term). A few bullish longer term still think 1200 to 1220 is possible. Seems like 131.20ish shouldn't get taken out on a daily basis.

Any indicators you use that point to a low yesterday, and this is the retest of that low and we head higher. Only thing I can come up with is that the 20 day and 50 day moving average on the S&P has more or less held. An indicator (I use 34 periods for the Williams %R) and it usually bullish above 65 and bearish below 35...is still in the bullish zone on a daily basis...but it must not falter or we should see lower prices in the days ahead. Really asking from a swing term perspective...as this is a good long entry point with a stop below the low of yesterday.

Thoughts?

one thing you should know is: absolutely not everyone here are in bear camp. A poll in my Chinese forum now says bull to bear ratio is 2:1。

[nikman]

all I can say here are the long setup I mentioned yesterday are still valid.[/quote]

Cobra,

reaching what level on SPY would invalidate those long setups? Thanks.

[Cobra]

as i said, need see how yesterday's low being tested. a decisively breakdown would be bad for bulls so pretty much a critical time.

[Cobra]

all I can say here are the long setup I mentioned yesterday are still valid.

Cobra,

reaching what level on SPY would invalidate those long setups? Thanks.[/quote]

I don't know how tradingmarkets tested those setup, I'll assume a few days draw down should be fine. I suspect they simply buy and hold until RSI 2 > 65 which could be a very substantial losses in some cases.

[Cobra]

testing the low. i see good chances we rebound here, after that we shall see where the market wants to go. the very first task for bulls is to break the intraday trend line.

[soku]

one thing you should know is: absolutely not everyone here are in bear camp. A poll in my Chinese forum now says bull to bear ratio is 2:1。

what is the time frame and how reliable is yr poll?
i am guessing after today's close, the bull/bear ratio will turn to 1:12 everywhere. posting.php?mode=quote&f=2&t=110&p=6024#

[Cobra]

one thing you should know is: absolutely not everyone here are in bear camp. A poll in my Chinese forum now says bull to bear ratio is 2:1。

what is the time frame and how reliable is yr poll?
i am guessing after today's close, the bull/bear ratio will turn to 1:12 everywhere. posting.php?mode=quote&f=2&t=110&p=6024#

I doubt that. if down day again today, the bull/bear ratio could only rise to, say, 2.5:1.

[soku]

back to my first question, it's the time frame matters
for intraday, i see a bounce too. maybe we will see 1312 area for es
for the wave structure or trend, i am bearish
i guess yr poll is for the next day. then i don't know. as a long time reader, i choose to listen to yr blah blah

[Cobra]

why down day again there'll be more bulls? because the logic is: 5 down days in a row, the chances for the 6th down day should be very rare.

[maldini]

one thing you should know is: absolutely not everyone here are in bear camp. A poll in my Chinese forum now says bull to bear ratio is 2:1。

what is the time frame and how reliable is yr poll?
i am guessing after today's close, the bull/bear ratio will turn to 1:12 everywhere. posting.php?mode=quote&f=2&t=110&p=6024#

I doubt that. if down day again today, the bull/bear ratio could only rise to, say, 2.5:1.

I chose bull in that poll Thanks to Xing.
I keep buying these days, without using any margin though.
Surely DT I short, but I am not good at shorting, yet ...

[stocksage]

Crude
cletus says "buy crude."
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/crude_7520.html
Go ahead.

lol. agree crude is headed down short term. DTO looking good.

[bbc]

why down day again there'll be more bulls? because the logic is: 5 down days in a row, the chances for the 6th down day should be very rare.

for SPX, from 2001 till now,

if down for five days, average up 7.6 points for the sixth day. most of sample are up except Oct 2008.

[bbc]

why down day again there'll be more bulls? because the logic is: 5 down days in a row, the chances for the 6th down day should be very rare.

for SPX, from 2001 till now,

if down for five days, average up 7.6 points for the sixth day. most of sample are up except Oct 2008.

for 6 loss day
only happened 3 times last ten years, 4/29/2002 and up 11.47 next day,
10/08/2008, -75 next day, -10, then +104
02/23/2009, up 29.81 next day.

[maldini]

why down day again there'll be more bulls? because the logic is: 5 down days in a row, the chances for the 6th down day should be very rare.

for SPX, from 2001 till now,

if down for five days, average up 7.6 points for the sixth day. most of sample are up except Oct 2008.

for 6 loss day
only happened 3 times last ten years, 4/29/2002 and up 11.47 next day,
10/08/2008, -75 next day, -10, then +104
02/23/2009, up 29.81 next day.

would you please share which software helps you do these back tracking?
//Thanks

[bbc]

used Excel, can do the same thing with database, but I just forgot to open my computer at home today:(

[99er]

USO
Did someone say "BUY CRUDE"?
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/uso.html

[bbc]

GS suggested sell CRUDE this week?