Cobra's Market View

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to [email protected].

========================================================================================================================================================================

The usual NFP day pattern is open high goes lower or open low goes higher. Good data means taper so not sure if people would sell bounce after open, let's see. Trading wise, I'd not think of reversal so be prepared to buy dip unless I see clear sign of reversal.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/12 ... ay-update/

News for Crooks Day!

http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull ... ek.asp#top
Highlights
After today's employment report, taper talk may be on the table at this month's FOMC meeting. Total payroll jobs in November advanced 203,000, following a revised increase of 200,000 for October (originally up 204,000) and after a revised gain of 175,000 for September (previous estimate was 163,000). Analysts forecast a 180,000 rise. The net revisions for September and October were up 8,000. Private payrolls expanded 196,000 after gaining 214,000 in October. Expectations were for 173,000 in November.

The unemployment rate dropped to 7.0 percent from 7.3 percent in October. The consensus called for a 7.2 percent unemployment rate. However, part of the reason for the decline was a low participation rate.

Wage growth posted at 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. The median market forecast was for a 0.2 percent gain. The average workweek nudged up to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours and matching analysts' forecast for 34.5 hours.

Given that payrolls topped expectations with a moderately healthy gain, the FOMC likely will at a minimum increase its discussion of tapering QE.

More detail coming. Please check back.
----------
so 203,ooo vs 204,000
and unemployment decline mostly do to lower participation rate
and 18pt ramp in 16 min

--- perhaps I missed the headline
YELLEN DECLARES FREE MONEY FOR EVERYONE
of course the bankers cartel (aka the Fed) only believes bankers are real people so everyone doesn't mean you or I.


Be careful - it can fall 18 pts in 16 min too.

Hightower tout. glta.[attachment=1]Capture.PNG[/attachment][attachment=0]fx.PNG[/attachment]

Sold longs in pre-market at levels slightly lower than here. Gotta love those limit orders that do the work for you.

Volume.[attachment=0]Capture.PNG[/attachment]

short 180.62

* corrected price

$SPX: EW wise SPX should not have concluded the correction

You have had the hot hand this week.... we really did not get that OS this week - despite the price levels.... so I certainly see some good reasons for you to be right...

Question is the timing.... given the Wed low....it could be today we see the employment high or we could go as long as Tuesday before the next correction.

I will be watching your comments with interest in the next few days.

Thanks,

-D

TWT wrote:$SPX: EW wise SPX should not have concluded the correction

SPX 15m.. filled the gap.... SPX 60m... for the bears.. right shoulder zone... on a H&S

thanks fehro!

seems like a great day to be short the OR breakdown...outa most longs, a bit short, cut 1/2 my losses on 10year, fwiw

wait for range breakout/breakdown, so nothing to say. generally consolidation here favor bulls.

Short. Trapped.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal went to neutral yesterday.

The no easy for bears principle is in effect!
I still have some room before stops come into play.
It is not unusual for the summation signal to be early (but it can also be wrong).
Interestingly, as of yesterday's close, the bears had finally done enough technical damage to compromise the up trend, giving me a neutral signal.
Perhaps it all gets repaired today. If my trend signal flips back up, it could trigger me into both longs and shorts. Ugh.
Assuming my trade survives the day, I'll be keen to see today's closing data.

Another aspect of yesterday is the McClellan made a lower low. While it would take a break of the November 7 MO low to confirm, I updated the oscillator trend lines (maroon) to mark a trend high, perhaps prematurely. Generally, I prefer to see an MO positive divergence against a price low, which was not the case yesterday. This is not essential though and perhaps the low was in on Wednesday. We shall see.

re Cobra dash blue line, wonder how long before dash rd comes into play...

spy looks like last week in july13.....iwm looks like last week in june, at least looking at candles, it implies close near lows today then some strength for a few days, similar to Denali comment....

Wonder what TraderGirl would say?

SPX 15m... could see a pop up to the pink line.. if not red bearish rising wedge?, red channel?...

Closed shorts 180.18. Wait for next trade.

Update on the time signal for next week - I first pinpointed Monday, but now I see it's Tuesday:
Close-up:

I know its a possible right shoulder, but I have to follow the trend higher, especially since the momentum is moving higher. SPY had a good bounce off the rising trend line:

VIX 15m diamond top break... now on possible support... bull yellow flag for the bears.. if it plays out...