Cobra's Market View

Smart money engaged more short again.

institutional buying and selling action chart from stocktiming shows more distribution but don't know if today's huge up has changed everything.

AAII

summary of the week's stock picks. not good although more real breakouts. beware of stocks near ER.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1136&p=149580#p149580

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1143&p=149581#p149581

I placed koolblue's 200% time extension on the daily recent cycle highs and cycle lows. The result is both project to Monday as a turn date. I speculate that we will continue to rally Monday and make a double top. The turn could happen on Tuesday and the signal would still be valid.

I beieve your analysis is valid Royal, but your using the method of extending a rally or decline... my current method is low to low gives a high and high to high gives a low ...

Hello Cobra and all,

This has been a resilient equity market, but if you take a 10 day sma of $NYUPV, you will see that it has been in a downtrend for the past 7 weeks. There are similar negative divergences in NYSI, TICK and TRIN, etc, etc. It is just that selling pressure is not increasing to any substantial degree.

I've been working on an automated trading system in the past few weeks using Prodigio, and backtesting over the past 4 years (Swing to Intermediate.) What I've discovered is that my Buy strategy is quite good, but my Sell strategy had been ill-defined and problematic, which is reflected in my actual trading results (I tend to sell too early.) In trying to nail down a profitable automatic sell strategy, and applying it to today's market, if I were long, then I would still be long. For instance, this week, a Chandelier Exit would not have tripped, a 10 day channel (and anything longer) would not have tripped, and my current PSAR exit would not have tripped, although the standard PSAR setting (0.02,0.2) would have. The point being that many longs are still long, and hedging with Put options, instead of using the Puts as a directional bet. Any thoughts?

One thing to note is the Positive Price Reversal on the Daily SPX RSI(14). It calculates out to 1815.4, and that implies a marginal new all time high and potential double top. The last PPR from 11/7 calculated out to 1782.3, and was confirmed in 5 days, and then exceeded by 20 points in 7 days. That said, if 1815.4 is not exceeded before a failure swing on the RSI, then that would be a good indication of at least a short term change in trend.

The chart shows the updated time and price projection based the 11/29 (blue box). One thing about these boxes, they are mathmatical constructs, and similar to bands and channels they are not predictive, but simply a context to judge price movement. If price were to turn up before or above the blue box, you would conclude that the market is very bullish. If price were to fall through and extend beyond the box in time, you would interpret that as meaning that a longer term change in trend may be occurring. If price were to turn up inside the blue box, then you would conclude that the current uptrend is extending.

This was an Editor's Pick on Seeking Alpha, and although a month old, may be worth a read :
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1867741 ... ters-ahead

[attachment=1]a.PNG[/attachment][attachment=0]b.PNG[/attachment]

Weekly candle and $NYSI look, lagging indicators but good sense of general market.

DAILY: Price, CCI, BB% are bulllish, need to pull up CMF.WEEKLY: overbought.

Another view of Yield, TNX (the ETF proxy is TBT short bonds)
When the 10 year Treasury bond yield (TNX) hits the top of the red zone here (almost 3 standard deviations above its 50ma) it has pulled back.
It may remain in the red zone for a couple/few more days, and test the high near 30, but a mean reversion is inevitable fairly soon.
After a pullback, I do expect it to continue up to 38+ (3.8% yield) but that may take a while.

BAC/ML 10 favorite stocks for 2014

$EURUSD: Follow up of the TZZ count

rhight wrote:

SPX 12-06-13 Price Projection.png

I'll be honest. I read that chart multiple times and cannot make heads or tails of the fibonacci time cluster histogram. Wish I could but I just fail.

koolblue wrote:I beieve your analysis is valid Royal, but your using the method of extending a rally or decline... my current method is low to low gives a high and high to high gives a low ...

What I did koolblue, was to extend a low to low and also extend a high to high. They both landed on the same day (because the 2nd retracement was significantly less duration than the 1st) so the 200% projects to either a late low or a near term high. If there's someting wrong with my analysis please point it out.

Gold miners GDX broke the double bottom and is now on track to test the Oct 2008 low, and the dome target of $15.
Keep an eye on BPGDM the miners bullish percent (second panel), now at 10, which is in the bounce zone.
But this year the BP groveled between 10 and zero before a decent bounce took hold.

Thanks for the charts AL
and hello all boardies!
some reading onGold cot data from McClellan herehttp://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/MCCLELLAN.html

and a pic from Swenlin here http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_sp ... .html#more

HERE is trin upvolume ratio....my thought was since there is generally upside bias in stocks, what if we look at relationship of advancer, decliners and downvolume....bottom panel hints that something is currently out of jive with breadth and prices (correlation)...the dark vertical lines appear more often when there is a positive correlation (my eyes, not scientific).

Also the ratio of new highs to advances typically drops very low (red histogram) below .05 before prices can really begin a new leg up. This makes intuitive sense that new highs might lag while advance spike higher. Also upvolume as percentage of tl vol has not fallen to levels that suggest downmove is over yet. except, most the I/T and L/T trend following technicals seem to point at ongoing bull market.
Vix (McClellan idea) ROC does not indicate higher stock prices, and it seems rare that a correction is this shallow, and seems more likely to indicate that duration of correction will be longer when it really begins.

Eakle's ? idea from Morris' breadth indicators book, cumulative NYAD and roc, marking time in the negative region past month seems more bearish to me....NYSI tested the 39ema, danced around and headed south-another warning and a few measures of small cap breadth, not anything glaring for bears or bulls to me, hints at waning breadth momentum (surprise!).
Watch the Rut:RUI ratio, needs to stay strong/go higher if bull market is to continue, this was another McClellan idea: measure how money is being distributed across the market, as in "is it broad enough for all the small stocks?"