Cobra's Market View

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I'm neutral, don't see any useful pattern. Futures rarely leaves gap, so the gap might be filled sometimes later, not saying today though because I cannot believe we'd have another open high go lower king of day again, the last week, almost everyday went like that.

the week's stock picks are here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ock-picks/

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

glta

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Still - SPX 1876 today - based on POMO.

1790 for End of April.

Beware: POMO schedule comes out at 3:00 EST. If it's weak the next week or so, there could be a selloff to frontrun the weakness coming. POMO can only do so much. If there's enough fear, then fear will take precedence and they'll step back and hold the POMO funds for another day - get the bears to short as much as possible, and then ramp it up to burn them. POMO and bears have driven this market for the last 5 years.

Let's see what the schedule looks like at 3:00...

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Daily SPY BB width down to 2.18. Extremely narrow. Odds strongly favor that the NEXT piercing of either the top or bottom band is the start of a large move. Unfortunately I still can't tell which direction it is.

DellGriffith wrote:Daily SPY BB width down to 2.18. Extremely narrow. Odds strongly favor that the NEXT piercing of either the top or bottom band is the start of a large move. Unfortunately I still can't tell which direction it is.

Here's a clue.

One clue could be that price breached the upper bb on the daily spy back in december. in that particular case, price was supposed to fall to the 200 dma which did not occur. however, a large fall now to the 200 dma and id consider it fulfilled.

Yellen speech :
FED: Yellen's speech is substantive and dovish: "I think this extraordinary
commitment (to encourage growth) is still needed and will be for some time, and
I believe that view is widely shared by my fellow policymakers at the Fed." Also
says "Most of my colleagues on FOMC and I estimate that the unemployment rate
consistent with maximum sustainable employment is now between 5.2% and 5.6%,
well below the 6.7% rate in Feb." Yellen still sees "considerable slack in the
economy and the labor market" and says "US economy is still considerably short
of the two goals" - employment and inflation. She says "the job market is
tougher now than in any recession" - large % of people are trying to find work
for 6mo+ or 1y+ and that impedes their being hired; evidence of slack is there
are large numbers of part-timers, low jobs turnover, too-low labor force
participation, and lower unemployment has not helped raise wages as in past
recoveries. She says without QE, the US econ would be worse.

champix wrote:Yellen speech :
FED: Yellen's speech is substantive and dovish:

Point form:

YELLEN SEES `CONSIDERABLE SLACK' IN ECONOMY, LABOR MARKET
YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DOESN'T MEAN REDUCED STIMULUS COMMITMENT
YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY, JOB MARKET `ARE NOT BACK TO NORMAL HEALTH'
YELLEN SAYS FED SHORT OF REACHING EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS
YELLEN SAYS POST-CRISIS LABOR MARKET STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES ITS 2% INFLATION GOAL `VERY SERIOUSLY'
YELLEN SAYS DECLINE IN JOBLESS `GRADUAL BUT REMARKABLY STEADY'
YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY NEEDS EXTRAORDINARY SUPPORT FOR `SOME TIME'

Da Bulls haven't giving up on me yet...SPX 2000 coming and then 2200...

Once again Kids tested the limit setup by pBARs on 3/14.
I am clueless where we are heading now, as you people manage to piss off my cousin (The Tarot Card Reader), the brain behind the analysis.

Index Dialies.... RUT, NDX testing 50d from underneath, SPX pops above 20d,

SPX 60m... possible resistance.. would like to see how this candle closes first to confirm... messy H&S under pressure ... Mind the morning gap

Short.

My summation signal is down. It could possibly turn neutral for the SPX today and if so maybe up tomorrow. R2K is still firmly down.
My composite trend signal is down.

I'm traveling so not much to say.
If Yellin is kicking off a new leg up, short trade is doomed.
I don't like to trade or take signals on the last day of the month or quarter as they have dynamics of there own that can be independent of the broader dynamic.
My summation signal has shown signs of bottoming for the SPX. So, my signals could go into conflict again, which would complicate things for me.
It will be kind of hard to work trade intraday from the road. So, I'll probably do nothing today and let stops hold the fort.
I am keen to see mid-week trade for direction assuming my position hangs in.

Undervalued opening long Index call/puts as low as 26% = 4 puts for every call = Market Sell

http://www.ise.com/market-data/isee-index/

I hope it's Ascending Triangle.

$SPX: Another corrective up leg But this 1 has seriously jeopardized the wave C option

Trading volume on TZA has been super heavy for the past 6 trading days.