Cobra's Market View

Gap up above yesterday's high, so chances are good that the gap won't be filled. My experiences however, if you trade OR breakout today, chances are good it'd fail, let's see. The rally yesterday was triggered by INTC but unfortunately, if history still repeats (although Helicopter is trying to make the history), then usually the following week is not good with the Oct 2010 is the only exception. Well, whatever, no need to fight the trend so we'll have to wait and see as there's difference between "knowing the path and walking the path".


I don't see much institutional actions here but guess it may take sometime.

Morning.
ES update: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/es_21.html
Looks like a make or break day. Good luck.

Shorted SPY.

GM Cobra - sun is out, getting warmer, perfect day to start a long weekend. Thanks for your insight in advance and good luck to all today.

This is a ramp job orchestrated by MMs to get to some stops at the new highs on the S&P and shake out the last bear around the light holiday volume. It's classic and transparent.

Cobra any info on back to back gap ups and how quickly the last one closes. Really appreciate all you do for this blog. Thanks.

mylock wrote:Cobra any info on back to back gap ups and how quickly the last one closes. Really appreciate all you do for this blog. Thanks.

No edges.

Cobra wrote:

mylock wrote:Cobra any info on back to back gap ups and how quickly the last one closes. Really appreciate all you do for this blog. Thanks.

No edges.

http://slopeofhope.com/2011/04/another- ... _west.html

AK84 wrote:

Cobra wrote:

mylock wrote:Cobra any info on back to back gap ups and how quickly the last one closes. Really appreciate all you do for this blog. Thanks.

No edges.

http://slopeofhope.com/2011/04/another- ... _west.html

Cobra and AK thank you very much.

Totally agree with Cletus, and I am sure the gap today will get filled either today or early next week.

It is extremely rare to find 2 gap up days in a row where at least the 2nd gap isn't filled either on the 2nd gap up day, or a couple of days later...but after that, we should go much higher...but have to see how it plays out.

the open.

FJoe wrote:Totally agree with Cletus, and I am sure the gap today will get filled either today or early next week.

It is extremely rare to find 2 gap up days in a row where at least the 2nd gap isn't filled either on the 2nd gap up day, or a couple of days later...but after that, we should go much higher...but have to see how it plays out.

Sure will get filled eventually, but as far as agreeing with Cletus the bear thats definitely another subject. 2 years and counting of losses for the da Bears.

EURUSD
Target 1.23.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/eurusd_21.html

IYR reversal at new highs. Watch a back test, but this doesn't look particularly good for bulls. IYR has been leading everything higher the past few days.

stocksage wrote:

FJoe wrote:Totally agree with Cletus, and I am sure the gap today will get filled either today or early next week.

It is extremely rare to find 2 gap up days in a row where at least the 2nd gap isn't filled either on the 2nd gap up day, or a couple of days later...but after that, we should go much higher...but have to see how it plays out.

Sure will get filled eventually, but as far as agreeing with Cletus the bear thats definitely another subject. 2 years and counting of losses for the da Bears.

That was brilliant. "Bears keep losing therefore they will keep losing." That is some really in depth analysis. It could be right but it doesn't show much thought.

Descending trendline has not yet been breached.

Crude
Bearish Butterfly Pattern playing out.
1) Last night's set-up: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/crude_9535.html
2) This morning's price action: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/crude_21.html

GM.

You could make the argument that the VIX is in a bottoming pattern but it still has more time to play out so new highs are looking likely.

The NYSI did turn up yesterday but still has room to go down short term. We will have to wait and see if this is just a small up blip or do we continue up.This has happened befor and then turned and finished its cycle.

stocksage wrote:

FJoe wrote:Totally agree with Cletus, and I am sure the gap today will get filled either today or early next week.

It is extremely rare to find 2 gap up days in a row where at least the 2nd gap isn't filled either on the 2nd gap up day, or a couple of days later...but after that, we should go much higher...but have to see how it plays out.

Sure will get filled eventually, but as far as agreeing with Cletus the bear thats definitely another subject. 2 years and counting of losses for the da Bears.

From my experiences, if bears are mocked by bulls constantly then the top is very close. This kind of rule worked many many times in my Chinese board because it somehow shows complacency . So if you really are bull, just don't mock, trust me. Few guys here have the same experiences about the board's sentiment as I do.