Cobra's Market View

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation but with divergence. The distribution is is a record low now, so not a bullish sign.
Smart money shorted a little bit, nothing bad yet.
I see nothing on AAII. More bulls but I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now it's far from extreme.

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1333&p=165124#p165124

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1340&p=165127#p165127

Hi all.
I've been trading like a mofo this last week and haven't had time to post or lurk much.

It's been a great week but I feel a bit wary so I have gone to all cash just to be careful.

Hi folks, here is update on DAX and SPX chart and my guess for next week(s)

SPX/DAX: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1323&p=164072#p164072

DAX: still inside of the broadening wedge (and very likely capped by as well) SPX: the cycle since 15th may (most likely wave 3 of lesser degree) could be ending around here, this is not the top but pullback can be seen around here imo and the SPX big picture, summer /chop/ trading ahead aka we are on the brink of distributive pattern? (wave 4s and 5s) we shall see good luck everyone!

Cobra,

Since you seem to pretty much do real-time commentary and charts, have you considered setting up a twitch.tv account and letting people sit in chat there while you make audio comments? I don't think anyone has ever actually done live stock market commentary on twitch.tv before (its mostly video games) but it could be an interesting experiment.

DellGriffith wrote:Cobra,

Since you seem to pretty much do real-time commentary and charts, have you considered setting up a twitch.tv account and letting people sit in chat there while you make audio comments? I don't think anyone has ever actually done live stock market commentary on twitch.tv before (its mostly video games) but it could be an interesting experiment.

I cannot. I have lots of things to do everyday besides trading and comments, so I don't want to try new things anymore. Maybe later. Thanks.

Some topping indicators...

DAX breadth from indexindicators.com
Divergence of breadth and DAX value.

SKEW from barchart.com.
Clear SKEW spike.

WLSH from stockcharts.com
Divergence of value and MFI. The MFI must now fall for this indicator to trigger.

Like everybody else, I struggle to find tops, but these three indicators in combination seem to do quite well. If anybody has others then please share. I have about a dozen more but none are especially reliable.

In terms of cycles, the correct day for the top would be Opex+2, Tuesday 24th.
I'm expecting a two legged down over a couple of weeks. I don't currently have signals that it will be especially serious, though obviously there's a lot of complacency around, which hints that it might be.

RedKite wrote:Some topping indicators...


SKEW

SKEW.PNG

from barchart.com.
Clear SKEW spike.


Like everybody else, I struggle to find tops, but these three indicators in combination seem to do quite well. If anybody has others then please share. I have about a dozen more but none are especially reliable.

That SKEW spike gets me cautious for July.
The weekly close beat the December High on 12/20 (which was also a quad witching day), which preceded the January sell-off.

I know it's hard to find a bear case that can stick for more than a day or two, well, Qs is not so cute of late. the weakest link as of Friday.

I mentioned the institution index on 2x top and the first sell, it's still on that sell mode even though the SPX doesn't agree. I think the market will leave the big guy behind also, well, is that possible? here is the right chart opppz!

T.I.S.A., Bankster's Carte Blanch. The TBTF need to overcome: The reason:Inward and outward foreign direct investment flows 2007-2012, (old but no doubt still trending),And uncle petrobond dollar continues to lose swap leverage. The bull run will take awhile to unwind, but the despo overvalued market charts still sing. For now. To catch the move: vote for Cobra.

Silver.If SPX is range bound this week, silver will slump. Unless the fx wars heat up, as silver is the "poor man's gold", it would accrue as a fiat substitute.Only KeiZai's count can know. Or TraderGirl.

a gann question in investor's lounge
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1032&p=165139#p165139

gappy wrote:Silver.

The attachment Capture.PNG is no longer available

If SPX is range bound this week, silver will slump. Unless the fx wars heat up, as silver is the "poor man's gold", it would accrue as a fiat substitute.

The attachment ag.PNG is no longer available

Only KeiZai's count can know. Or TraderGirl.

Hi Gappy it's a really interesting market right now, I don't have a clear view to be honest but at the moment looks bullish to me and in the bigger picture maybe could retest the big breakout zone around 25-26 at least whilst 18 is holding, pattern wise this could be reversal descending triangle and looking at the ratio charts this kind of setup happened before a short squeeze legs in summer 2012 and also in 2013...So are we about to see similar squeeze in summer 2014 as well? We will see

Silver Ratio1 Ratio2