Cobra's Market View

Small gap up, but above the recent trading range so not sure if the gap will be filled or not. I think the market is in waiting mode for the FOMC and the press conference after, so could be another range day today.

Good Morning.
ES update: http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/es_26.html
Well, looks like some folks are going to have a great day today.

EURUSD
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/eurusd_26.html
But on which side of the Pond?

Cobra wrote:Small gap up, but above the recent trading range so not sure if the gap will be filled or not. I think the market is in waiting mode for the FOMC and the press conference after, so could be another range day today.

Good morning cobra.
What do you think of the chance of OR breakout today?

GM:)

99er wrote:EURUSD
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/eurusd_26.html
But on which side of the Pond?

...still short from thursday....
i must be on the wrong side of the Pond!!

noidea wrote:

99er wrote:EURUSD
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/04/eurusd_26.html
But on which side of the Pond?

...still short from thursday....
i must be on the wrong side of the Pond!!

You're going to have to be patient with your shorts. There is a key turn date today, and since it coincides with an up market and the Fed day tomorrow, I think we are at an EXTREMELY important turning point in the market. Surprise from the Fed?

noidea: "i must be on the wrong side of the Pond!!"

And I'm on the wrong side of the Pacific!

Fukushima video: http://enenews.com/tv-reports-one-fukus ... tion-video

.... cletus.... hope you're right... and hope my broker don't call margins tonight!!!
... 99er.... it's nice not to stand alone .... against what could be a tsunami...

i'm nearly burning all my yearly profits, so ....

from a fundamental point of view, it shouldn't be a surprise if the fed give the stop signal about quantitative, monetary and what else "easing".... nevertheless, i doubt it, so - basically - don't know what i am waiting for reversing my position...

i swear here on the board... if nothing happens after the Fed, i'll be a bull for the rest of my life!! ok, ok, for the rest of the week

the open.

whether is this a valid breakout, we'll have to wait and see.

morning. the gap does not have much quality. it draws a support at 1335 area, but it could not hold imo.
we may dip to lower 1330s to seek a better support there. just my 2c

Morning all.

Finally created a log-in after being a silent admirer of the board you have here.

So, well done to Cobra et al for a quality, educational and well behaved board.

I don't/can't post charts but may be I'll have to learn that some day.

Anyway, here's my take:

Monthly candle for March engulfed February (all bar 8pts)
Last week's candle engulfed the previous 3 weeks
Jan, Feb, Mar all exceeded the upper Bolly on the monthly candle - needs to breach 12,536 currently to do so this month. If it doesn't, history (since 1971) says it won't get back above it in May. However, if it does this month it has better odds to continue into June. We are close enough to month end to pierce it April and then need a tiny amount in May to hit 5 consecutive months. If we do that then I'll be expecting June and possibly July to exceed the upper Bolly also. That puts Dow 13,000+ on the table.

Last Thursday triggered a 1 down day in 7 and a 2 down day in 9 set-up. Monday negated both but the 2 down in 9 is back on the table if we close green today but 1 down in 7 cannot trigger. That sequence is historically followed by downside, normally quite swift.

Distance from 50 & 200 MA's do not tell me we have a top here. Not extreme enough.

VIX normally bottoms over 30% away from 200MA, last Wednesday was 29.54% which doesn't really satisfy me but could be considered close enough. All that means is that there'll be more range for me.

In summary, 12,536 is my key point. If we go through that then we look as if we go higher. If we don't then we need to drop at least 1% away from it and we'll see downside of around 4-6% in June.

Even if we do go down, data still points to newer highs later this summer but we'll see if the tape changes that outlook.

NB. I have cross-posted that, mostly hang out at Evil during the day.

Apologies, I only trade DJ so all info relates to that.

fighting on resistance.

Olly Varadi wrote:Morning all.

Finally created a log-in after being a silent admirer of the board you have here.

So, well done to Cobra et al for a quality, educational and well behaved board.

I don't/can't post charts but may be I'll have to learn that some day.

Anyway, here's my take:

Monthly candle for March engulfed February (all bar 8pts)
Last week's candle engulfed the previous 3 weeks
Jan, Feb, Mar all exceeded the upper Bolly on the monthly candle - needs to breach 12,536 currently to do so this month. If it doesn't, history (since 1971) says it won't get back above it in May. However, if it does this month it has better odds to continue into June. We are close enough to month end to pierce it April and then need a tiny amount in May to hit 5 consecutive months. If we do that then I'll be expecting June and possibly July to exceed the upper Bolly also. That puts Dow 13,000+ on the table.

Last Thursday triggered a 1 down day in 7 and a 2 down day in 9 set-up. Monday negated both but the 2 down in 9 is back on the table if we close green today but 1 down in 7 cannot trigger. That sequence is historically followed by downside, normally quite swift.

Distance from 50 & 200 MA's do not tell me we have a top here. Not extreme enough.

VIX normally bottoms over 30% away from 200MA, last Wednesday was 29.54% which doesn't really satisfy me but could be considered close enough. All that means is that there'll be more range for me.

In summary, 12,536 is my key point. If we go through that then we look as if we go higher. If we don't then we need to drop at least 1% away from it and we'll see downside of around 4-6% in June.

Even if we do go down, data still points to newer highs later this summer but we'll see if the tape changes that outlook.

NB. I have cross-posted that, mostly hang out at Evil during the day.

Thanks, welcome aboard!

Silver -- a 10% move DOWN in the last few days, and they are still bullish on silver? LOL

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=h1

GM, this is some form of runaway gap I doubt it will fill today.

Hourly MACD on SPY reversing towards the upside

Shorted Dow and EUR