Cobra's Market View

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Second test of the pullback low then rebound, 50% chances of double bottom, wait. Nowadays any gap down is bought very aggressively upon open, let's see if today again is no difference or not...

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/07 ... ay-update/

SPX 60m.

GM all,
Today should be a low, if we head down from the open the low should be in till 12 pm, otherwise towards the close.
The next turn date (high) should be monday, 4th. Let's see.
GL!

Held a bunch of longs overnight so I am looking at dwindling profits and fresh losses. I have limit orders in to exit positions well above here so I am sitting on my hands.

Might just take a nap.

Vote Cobra. glta

INDEX dailies... SPX testing 50d SMA, NDX20d ... INDU <50d, RUT<200d

SPX 5m.. filled the another gap... made another...

2% down day

SPY daily BBs had gotten incredibly tight at the 1.5 area. in such situations, the first large move is what you saddlle up and ride. should be our first correction in months starting.

you know it when you see it!

Still no position.

My summation signal is neutral.
My composite trend signal is down. It was one indicator one tick away from confirmation yesterday.

I may have to admit to being wrong (as opposed to clueless).
I have been saying that bears are extinct. However, there are now signs of bear tracks in the jungle.
It may just be some creature with feet like a bear.
If we get a VIX close > 16, I will admit to being wrong and acknowledge that a few bears still roam the earth.

Unless today's action turns in a big way, my trend signal will be confirmed, and short setups will come into play.
Today's close being the end of the month close would make such confirmation particularly salient.

Now all in cash
YTD: SSO 18,9%, XIV 43%, Cumulative: 22%
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1379&p=167621#p167621 See you in September

IWM descending triangle
[According to Bulkowski, it breaks downward 64% of the time]

Before first trade
looking for a bounce up today
but initial action looks to be trundling along the bottom
I think the low is in place (in the o/n session) but below 41 is a breakdown and go short
estimate low 43.50 but with such a big o/n down all estimates are rough

http://screencast.com/t/8kHYJ5ZlIC
GLTA

NYMO has plunged to lower low in oversold territory.
The rally from the last low is looking like a bull trap.

Importantly, price has declined to the 50 day MA and my middle keltner band.
This area has provided pretty good support for awhile... a little hard to imagine it failing straight away.
Failure would target lower keltner amongst other things.

Normal course would be to bounce or joggle +/- around here for a spell before advancing trend unless event flow gets some panic going.

Scatter plot shows OEX (100 lg cap), NDX (100 hot tech) and TRAN still the “cleanest dirty shirts” but TRAN has been steadily losing ground
Added EEM emerging (roughly 60% China; leading quadrant), and MSWORLD (all developed mkts ex-US; lagging)
http://stockcharts.com/docs/doku.php?id ... rrg-charts

29 of the dow 30 are red
(KO just snuck up two cents)