Cobra's Market View

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This rebound is the largest of all since the pullback started, so may have legs this time?

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

If yesterday was a bottom of the correction, it came on day 10, which is actually very brief. I'll probably go into more about that in the weekend update.

IF this is in fact wave 5 with a ABCDE Ending Diagonal the we should expect some type of zig-zag pattern before the market takes off to the upside. Maybe Monday?
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DellGriffith wrote:... I'll probably go into more about that in the weekend update.

Hey DG, just wanted to say that both you & Manny really add a bunch to the weekend updates; I always look forward to reading your work. So a 'thank you' out from beyond the internet ether..

yup looks like ABCDE ending diag... maybe a bit too pretty... and the levitation of futures overnight... not so sure.. break green... look for cyan...

I posted this last night in Cobra's blog: Weekly BB13/1 on SPX (the green area) has not been busted to the downside since December 2012. A break lower (weekly close) would be significant. I don't think it's going to happen today, it would be such a mayor sell signal and I don't see a reason: Putin is showing restraint, Obama is moving in Iraq, the rates are low ...

SPX 5m.... 20W SMA 1914.24 key level.

INDEX dailies... TLT new year highs

range, direction not clear, wait.

Short. No change.

My summation signal is down for the SPX and neutral for the R2K.
My composite trend signal is down.

Yesterday, Gandalf held the line at ES 1900, but overnight, the Balrog pulled him into the depths.
As if by magic, he came back and the line still stands (for now) in the open session.

If we rally and the 1900 line and even the overnight low don't get tested, it will be unfinished business for the future.
While stops were run after hours, there should remain untouched stops at the 1900 level that would execute in the day session.
The Balrog still lives...

That said, NYMO history suggests we are overdue for a low of some kind.
TRIN yesterday also suggested potential conditions for a bounce.
It is OPEX next week. A lot of folks are short and the jackals may have more inventory than they care to have.
The fuel is there for a face ripper.

I am mulling over going neutral both long and short.
I have a setup that may come into play today based on TRIN for a long.
Tactically, this could allow me to hold the short through what may be a corrective bounce.
We shall see. May do nothing.

Last thought. If the decline continues into next week, I'll grow quite concerned.
Crashes don't care if a market is oversold.
The longer this goes on without some bullish response, the more likely things could get panicky.
Just a thought...

morning hourly black bar.

Mr. BachNut wrote:
If we rally and the 1900 line and even the overnight low don't get tested, it will be unfinished business for the future.

Clarification - I mean tested during the open session.

targets on either side. I'm neutral. wait for break first.

Mr. BachNut wrote:Short. No change.

My summation signal is down for the SPX and neutral for the R2K.
My composite trend signal is down...

... If the decline continues into next week, I'll grow quite concerned.
Crashes don't care if a market is oversold.
The longer this goes on without some bullish response, the more likely things could get panicky.
Just a thought...

BachNut, one hypothetical scenario: SPX dips next week and rallies back up for Friday's OPEX. This kind of action would not harm the technical picture on the weekly charts. Today's sideways move is a hint that some big guys don't want the weekly charts to look ugly ...

...Almost 500 trading days have passed without a 10 percent retreat. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/08/ha ... orrection/