Cobra's Market View

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Wedge? Which is not necessarily bearish, need see more bars.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/08 ... ay-update/

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sen ... ts?adv=yes the crowd shifted boat sides quite quickly last week...

INDEX dailies... TLT up , as SPX nears 20d, VIX tags 50d

FlowerGirl wrote: For the Record
Took 1/2 position XIV yesterday.
Another half may be taken later today or tomorrow.
Still on Hiatus...

2nd 1/2 position in XIV was taken at close yesterday.

FlowerGirl wrote:

FlowerGirl wrote: For the Record
Took 1/2 position XIV yesterday.
Another half may be taken later today or tomorrow.
Still on Hiatus...

2nd 1/2 position in XIV was taken at close yesterday.

Hey FG,

Can you please briefly explain how XIV works?

Thank you

Junior Buffett wrote: Hey FG,
Can you please briefly explain how XIV works?
Thank you

XIV is a synthetic product that appreciate when VIX term structure is in contango and looses value when VIX term structure is in backwardation.
For more information check this
http://seekingalpha.com/article/523651- ... onvergence
or
http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/

FlowerGirl wrote:

Junior Buffett wrote: Hey FG,
Can you please briefly explain how XIV works?
Thank you

XIV is a synthetic product that appreciate when VIX term structure is in contango and looses value when VIX term structure is in backwardation.
For more information check this.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/523651- ... onvergence

Thank you! much appreciated!

Sold my XIV, now flat. The rally doesn't seem strong to me.

For the Record
1/2 position in SSO taken this morning.
Rest will taken when the forth oscillator moves to favorable side.

IWM and XLE breaking their 30-OR to the downside.

Most sectors still w/in that range.

jademann wrote:Sold my XIV, now flat. The rally doesn't seem strong to me.

Good timing.

SPX 5m.. invs H&S holding.. pink neckline, orange neckline... still don't like the upward slope for an invs H&S.. so suspect imho... mind the bearish red rising wedge.. and the open gaps

Neutral. Long and short.

My summation signal turned up for the SPX yesterday.
It remains neutral for the R2K but could turn up with higher highs. This is interesting as R2K started out stronger days ago but has lost steam.

My composite trend signal is down and still very weak.

Price has been great and breadth has been great, which explains why my summation models have turned up.
Volumes have been very light, which, amongst other things, has kept my trend model subdued.
So, my models are in conflict, and a couple of scenarios can play out from here.
I'll probably be picking a side soon depending on how things go.

Bulls have established a beachhead at the 195 strike for OPEX.
An attempt at 196 would be normal but could succeed or fail.
I think Friday's close could be particularly salient. A weak close would be particularly interesting IMO.

Intraday selling pressure is picking up a speed,

Sell.

MDY and XLB joined in downside breaks.

However, overall NYSE selling has been mild. Some deterioration in breadth, but no tick readings above -400 to the downside. Fairly ho hum so far.

Strong sectors so far, QQQ, XLI, KRE

AAPL 15m.. time for it to lead to the downside? .. gap not quite filled

Updated map for this week.

ES has progressed through and done some filling of the drop zone as well as sightly probed into the target area.
Trend has been losing momentum.
Former resistance now support area could become important at some point.