Cobra's Market View

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows institutions are slowly accumulating while the market goes down, I read it as a good sign. Institutions are buying the dip.
Smart money covered a little but not huge, so so probably not bottomed yet.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises from very negative to very positive value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1445&p=173217#p173217

T2 indicators

after market future already at your first target 1893!! VIX very overbought on most of the charts upto weekly..

Daily / Weekly Candles +

Carl Icahn's latest letter to AAPL:
http://carlicahn.tumblr.com/post/995614 ... half-price


“...the greatest trader of all time...” was actually using “... confidential information … to engineer the most lucrative insider-trading scheme in history.”
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/ ... mpire-edge


The FED introduced a new monthly measure of the US labor market — the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).
[it’s now trackable on the FRED site]
http://www.investing.com/analysis/a-new ... fed-228547

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yflow.html

WSJ Money Flows data show Buying on Weakness for SPY and IWM, etc.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-1 ... ny-scarier

It Doesn't Get Any Scarier Than This (Literally)

This drop is a good candidate to be a "by the book" correction defined as a 10% drop in a short period of time. That would take spy down to about 182. Looking around that price, a good target is the value of SPY last January 1st. I'm thinking we erase all of this year's gains and that could be the low. We bounce off that. We'll see.

Preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1452&p=173226#p173226

SECTORS:
What percent are above their 20MAs?
The general premise is that if a stock/sector is above its 20 moving average, then it is considered relatively strong in the short term.
Overlay on the top panel shows the aggressive sectors all weak (under 50).
Worst is energy (lime green) where 0% (zero percent ) of XLE stocks are above their 20ma. Astonishingly, only 2% of energy stocks are above their 50ma (but “% above 50ma” is not shown on this chart).

"Trend followers" will be watching for a buy signal when aggressive sectors start moving up toward and breaching the 50 yard line, where bounces will be tolerated if they print higher lows in the SPY panel (middle panel) as seen in late april to mid may. I guess “bottom fishers” will start fishing here in the current zone for a bottom, but “bottom fishing” hasn’t been profitable on this leg. (I’m a “trend follower” and I’m not allowed to guess bottoms).

Overlay on the third panel shows the defensive sectors.
Rotation is still into defensives, namely staples and utilities, both above 50.
Healthcare (orange) is rolling over.
[I would appreciate a credible link confirming that healthcare hasn’t really been considered a classic-defensive sector for years. I’m sick of calling it defensive, already].

All lies and jests still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUiVzQYBSiA

H/s seem algo popular lately. This would be the year end no Santa rally paint.Vote Cobra. glta

courtesy ..... http://permabeardoomster.blogspot.com/

Haven’t seen this in 2.5 years:
SPY 3 straight WEEKS of back to back red-sell volume increase
SPY touch/pierce (almost) the lower bolinger band on the WEEKLY
Maybe someone can study this longer term and see some valuable message…

.

How about, they push this up to make it look like a H&S so all the bears get aboard, then squeeze it up for the EOY rally?

No H&S for the bears has worked in the last few years - none, only inverse H&S for the bulls.

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Thanks for the PPO charts on friday Uempel

10:25 PM 10/11/2014
Educational only - not trading advice
http://screencast.com/t/pNmAQr2zDqh

flumanchu wrote:.

How about, they push this up to make it look like a H&S so all the bears get aboard, then squeeze it up for the EOY rally?

No H&S for the bears has worked in the last few years - none, only inverse H&S for the bulls.

.

H&S Top rarely works, not only those years, it mostly serves as a Bull Flag therefore a continuation pattern, not reversal pattern. You'll find lots of text book sayings about trade simply is not true.

Monday morning is going to be interesting. I've got time signals on the SPX 60 min and on the daily chart too. I'm showing the 60 min because it doesn't signal the opening, it signals approx 10.30 a.m.

If I read that 10.30 a.m. signal correctly it suggests that the market might go against the initial move. I.e. if the market opens weak I see a positive jump to the upside at 10.30 a.m and vice versa: an initial small jump at the opening might result in a sell-off. These scenarios are highly hypothetical - the only thing which we can take for granted is that the market will show an important move Monday morning.

uempel wrote:Monday morning is going to be interesting. I've got time signals on the SPX 60 min and on the daily chart too. I'm showing the 60 min because it doesn't signal the opening, it signals approx 10.30 a.m.

rrr.png

I will go long XIV if/when VXX is ~ 40.30 (especially around your time signal)
Still no bottom signal on my radar...holding cash...