Cobra's Market View

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Not sure if it'll 100% fulfill the double top target, but likely this bear may have legs.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

Support areas Tuesday at the opening:

uempel wrote:Support areas Tuesday at the opening:

rtzu.png

Hi Uempel,

Good Morning, Red line means bearish? or this is just change in direction.

Thank you

a little too stretched, so should be a rebound first.

SPX 60m possible support here..need to check daily

possible support from spike lows trend line dated back to 2012.. SPX daily

members only update at 9:50 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

SPX daily.. possible green trend, BBband 2030ish better support?

Mea culpa:

/es 60m.. could argue lower

morning hourly hollow red.

VIX daily.. outside of BBand.. above 200d, short of target

AAPL possible support.. filled the "thin zone" viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1510&p=178167&hilit ... ne#p178167

members only update at 10:06 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/12 ... ay-update/

fehro wrote:AAPL possible support.. filled the "thin zone" viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1510&p=178167&hilit ... ne#p178167

Daily perspective.. lower BBand tagged… 200d is close.. blue channel/green should we continue down

INDEX dailies .. strong pullback in UUP .. USO trying… . GLD strong

RUT 60m possible.. H&S.. would need a break… neckline acting as support atm

BachNut checking in...

Nothing has really changed on my NYMO cycle chart.
A down cycle has been in effect since the end of October.
The minimum price target for the down cycle has been SPX 2018.19.
That target was looking absurd last Friday but is showing some promise this morning.
The divergence to the benchmark reached about 60 handles on Friday, which is a lot of potential juice for a trade. Good asymmetry.
NYMO is approaching the potential bottoming zone (thin green), but if you look carefully, you can see a fair bit of room to the oversold zone (thick green).
I have been working TF and ES.

The other chart that I have been paying attention to (GBP/Yen cross) has shown some change, which may be significant.
First, in recent days while the cross popped pretty good, the SPX really struggled to make new highs. This was a change in tone from recent weeks.
Second, last night the cross made a lower low.
There are some support zones marked on the chart. Assuming the cross goes to one of them and finds support, I'll be looking to see if equity behavior conforms.
This chart has been correlating tops and bottoms pretty well.

Given seasonality and well ingrained BTD behavior and hyperactive central bankers, it is reasonable to expect that this decline won't go too far.
That said futures contracts will be rolling ahead of expiration this week, and a chunk of Decembers may elect to call it a year and just liquidate.
Also, there is a tipping point (who knows where) that could tip folks to protect year-end profits. The bus is pretty full long. I am guessing the market would need some event to trigger such a tip though.
As usual, I have no idea what will happen. I am planning on Santa, but I have heard about this fella called the Grinch...

USD/JPY 60m.. sharp move