Cobra's Market View

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I'm neutral. Market is in a range bounded by upper and lower blue lines.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/01 ... ay-update/

SPX

this was as of Wed… add today.. Today the market had a gap opening for the seventh day in a row, and the fourteenth time out of eighteen trading days this month. This kind of volatility usually occurs during corrections.
for you EW'ers https://caldaro.wordpress.com

INDEX days… TLT another new high.. NDX green RUT > 20d/50d barely

PMI 59.4
expected 57.7

First time to post, I follow the cycle theory and it appears we have or are in the process of entering a yearly cycle low at which time I expect a full out drop to new lows in the coming two weeks.....we shall see! Glta and love the charts esp. Fehro's! Good stuff

AAPL weekly… new all time highs.. $120.00

hunterman wrote:First time to post, I follow the cycle theory and it appears we have or are in the process of entering a yearly cycle low at which time I expect a full out drop to new lows in the coming two weeks.....we shall see!

Welcome.

Which cycle theory are you following?

Any charts?

From Cobra's seasonality charts:

Sold my long and took a loss.

The RUSSELL is turning down powerfully. Very bad

morning hourly hollow red.

Hi k447, mostly time and price based on durations. Unfortunately, I can not post at this time, at work and reading by old BB phone lol! But my current projections indicate we are finalizing a left translated cycle and about to enter the yearly low....as I have always said, time will now tell! Gl and if I am correct, we will have a huge opportunity to enter long in a couple weeks...IF it turns out to be what I am seeing.

Short 201 even.

Anyone get in on the SHAK allocation?

SPX… H&S. .. RS in?.. or need to make another.. target 1995 .. if it plays out

daily SPY:

its been 35 days since visiting the upper bb. it is "too late" for a large drop. i think we could set a new low but that would be capitulation and should be bought. and new low will be brief and i doubt it even happens.

for reference, SPY has only gone 45+ days without approaching the upper bb in recessions, so calling for another two weeks of down seems out of place because that would push us there.

and i said thus before but ill repost:

the all time record is 82 days set during the 2008 credit crisis, 60 days set during the dotcom bust, then 49 days set in early 2008 when the yield curve inverted and sachs called for a recession.

another 2 weeks of bear is saying were in a 2008 situation, which were not.

but sure, we could have more down in the coming days. if we do i expect it to be brief.

fehro wrote:SPX… H&S. .. RS in?.. or need to make another.. target 1995 .. if it plays out

I've also got 195 as the lower bound on this channel

hunterman wrote:Hi k447, mostly time and price based on durations. Unfortunately, I can not post at this time, at work and reading by old BB phone lol! But my current projections indicate we are finalizing a left translated cycle and about to enter the yearly low....as I have always said, time will now tell! Gl and if I am correct, we will have a huge opportunity to enter long in a couple weeks...IF it turns out to be what I am seeing.

Hunter, good that you write "in a couple of weeks" - in the interim period downside swings might be more attractive

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-t ... MW_popular

Channel support: