Cobra's Market View

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I see nothing wrong. It might be a rising wedge but nowadays who cares about wedge, it's not a bearish pattern most of the time. today suppose to down but if up then the old day bulls are back, let's see.

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/02 ... ay-update/

SPX .. filled the Dec 29/30 gap

pennies away from all time highs..

Good Morning. Have a safe and happy Friday the 13th, Everyone.

Nothing special about that picture. It is just that all the others were skulls, et cetera.

Gap up.

INDEX days… TRAN still lags.. USO / TLT tags 50d UUP <20d

Found on twitter (from Rob Hanna):

Cobra wrote:
I see nothing wrong. It might be a rising wedge but nowadays who cares about wedge, it's not a bearish pattern most of the time. today suppose to down but if up then the old day bulls are back, let's see.

Not sure I'd ever say the market is "supposed" to do anything. It's random walk behavior so at any given moment there is a natural 50/50 chance.

From Investopedia

Random walk theory gained popularity in 1973 when Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", a book that is now regarded as an investment classic. Random walk is a stock market theory that states that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market cannot be used to predict its future movement. Originally examined by Maurice Kendall in 1953, the theory states that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintain an upward trend.

In short, random walk says that stocks take a random and unpredictable path. The chance of a stock's future price going up is the same as it going down. A follower of random walk believes it is impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk. In his book, Malkiel preaches that both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are largely a waste of time and are still unproven in outperforming the markets.

Malkiel constantly states that a long-term buy-and-hold strategy is the best and that individuals should not attempt to time the markets. Attempts based on technical, fundamental, or any other analysis are futile. He backs this up with statistics showing that most mutual funds fail to beat benchmark averages like the S&P 500.

BIDU ...

cletus wrote:

Cobra wrote:
I see nothing wrong. It might be a rising wedge but nowadays who cares about wedge, it's not a bearish pattern most of the time. today suppose to down but if up then the old day bulls are back, let's see.

Not sure I'd ever say the market is "supposed" to do anything. It's random walk behavior so at any given moment there is a natural 50/50 chance.

From Investopedia

Random walk theory gained popularity in 1973 when Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", a book that is now regarded as an investment classic. Random walk is a stock market theory that states that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market cannot be used to predict its future movement. Originally examined by Maurice Kendall in 1953, the theory states that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintain an upward trend.

In short, random walk says that stocks take a random and unpredictable path. The chance of a stock's future price going up is the same as it going down. A follower of random walk believes it is impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk. In his book, Malkiel preaches that both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are largely a waste of time and are still unproven in outperforming the markets.

Malkiel constantly states that a long-term buy-and-hold strategy is the best and that individuals should not attempt to time the markets. Attempts based on technical, fundamental, or any other analysis are futile. He backs this up with statistics showing that most mutual funds fail to beat benchmark averages like the S&P 500.

At any given day, market tends to have higher percentage going up than down as cobra's daily stats show. 53% vs 47%.

If trends exist, then it is not random.

Short SPY 209.31

[quote="q2model"]
Not sure I'd ever say the market is "supposed" to do anything. It's random walk behavior so at any given moment there is a natural 50/50 chance.
/quote]

Random Walk THEORY has the word theory on it for a reason.
It has been shown not to apply to the markets.

Further there are assumptions involved by the author of the theory and the assumptions are not met.

JFR wrote:If trends exist, then it is not random.

Random walk theory is pure bunk. Were it true, the market would not go up or down in the longer term and everything would be a zero sum game.

SPX 15m ..mind the lower gaps

Reversal of fortune.

out of bounds i took the short too just covered for 1.5 pts, thanks for confirming what i saw. I had a double divergence on an indicator i use, and a double is a strong bet, i would say 75% right. Now im out for the day, fuck this slimy market till tuesday. Thanks everyone else for your contributions this week. I learn alot from all of you