Cobra's Market View

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Possible bull flag, so the pullback might be bought somewhere.

It's all about the weekly candle SPX today. 1965= doji = indecsion, so more chop. 1975 = hammer = bullish.. .. we chop /consolidate all day until the market makers "paint" the candle near the close, is what I feel today may bring.
VIX in a bullish falling wedge.. SPX possible bear flag.. of sorts.. 5m

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/08 ... ay-update/

fehro wrote:It's all about the weekly candle SPX today. 1965= doji = indecsion, so more chop. 1975 = hammer = bullish.. .. we chop /consolidate all day until the market makers "paint" the candle near the close, is what I feel today may bring.
VIX in a bullish falling wedge.. SPX possible bear flag.. of sorts.. 5m

MInd yesterday's AM gap, and this morning's.

GLD >50d.. weekly pretty ugly on /GC . .. anyhow TLT green

Update on MA 377, EMA 377 and MA 9 - there's kissing too

/CL - USOIL.. outside reversal on the weekly.. short squeeze continues

SPX pennies short of a morning gap fill...

So far there is a certain similarity between the rebound in 2011 and the this week's market action.

consolidation, so bias still up.

yeah I know crazy target.... /CL sloppy very sloppy invs H&S target $47-49 near 50d

Bah. Didn't get my gap up on the open so cashed out and took the nice profit I had.

uempel wrote:So far there is a certain similarity between the rebound in 2011 and the this week's market action.

lk.png

I was looking at similar for 2008 October low. Trough to peak in October low was about 18 pts in 3 days.

Potential wedge threat on SPY if it struggles too long breaking out of this channel.

If we could just see what happens in the next 1-2 days we could make a bundle. Place your bets..

Short term bulls can make 20 handles to the upside, bears can make more than that to the downside Bye guys, I'm off.

Newbie question
I'm trying to learn more about volatility contango and backwardation.
What are the signals that contango and backwardation have started and ended ?
Thank you in advance.

jungle trunks wrote:

uempel wrote:So far there is a certain similarity between the rebound in 2011 and the this week's market action.

The attachment lk.png is no longer available

I was looking at similar for 2008 October low. Trough to peak in October low was about 18 pts in 3 days.

This was 1998:

tsf wrote:Newbie question
I'm trying to learn more about volatility contango and backwardation.
What are the signals that contango and backwardation have started and ended ?
Thank you in advance.

VIX futures are still in backwardation
Backwardation = when the front month VIX-futures contract is higher (more expensive) than the second month contract. Backwardation is rare, and it favors VXX, UVXY and other long VIX vehicles.
Contango = when the front month VIX-futures contract is lower (cheaper than) than the second month contract. Contango favors XIV and other short VIX vehicles. Estimates are that contango exists about 70-80% of the time in a primary bull market.
Only the closing price counts, as it is at the close that a small portion of the front month contracts are “rolled” (sold) and the second month contracts are bought. This roll ensures that at expiration, the VIX contracts will hold zero contracts expiring, as all will have been rolled into the next month already, creating a smooth-ish transition.
http://www.barchart.com/commodityfuture ... de=D&view=