08/29/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation. It only tells what's happening now though I don't see anything telling the future.

[Cobra]

Smart money huge long, so it's case 2.), the low was in!!!???

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[fehro]

Weekly/Daily Candles + Monthly... .Impress weekly recovery, monthly not so much, one more day to go.

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm ..weak bouncing with the market. Put/Call quite the impressive spike

[fehro]

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily. Has more room to run to extremes longer term, but shorter term a tad extreme.

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX)
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX)

[fehro]

Smart money huge long, so it's case 2.), the low was in!!!???

Might be worth looking/checking around 2001/2007 to see what was happening with the first sell off levels. Just in case we are headed for some of the same in the weeks ahead, fwiw. Volatility is very elevated these days... so the flip/flops may happen faster?

[fehro]

SPX W/D everyone is looking for a 200d/50d/50w retest.. maybe the "RS" of the Cyan weekly H&S for a nice short..
but what if.. the H&S is pink.. and we sputter next couple weeks and put in a very shallow RS.. would cause the most pain to both sides.. bears waiting to re-short at higher levels.. bulls looking for the highs after another hammer like we have seen for the last 3 years. (MacD weekly - weak this time)

[Al_Dente]

McClellan's latest:
“…defining the 10% and 20% thresholds as markers for categorizing types of declines is a functionally meaningless exercise… So when you hear an analyst or “expert” talking about the 10% and 20% thresholds, you can reliably know that such a person really does not understand how prices behave, and he does not get the distinction between a bear market and a correction.”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... ar_market/

[Al_Dente]

MEDIUM TERM:
If you chart that McClellan discussion just posted, and ignore the moving averages, you see higher lows (green dots) and lower lows (red dots) and (gray dot) warnings that a short-term lower low was printed, but it’s not terminal yet.
Using that logic, you see a grey-dot warning on 8/12, and a lower-low red dot on 8/21.
Yes, it’s very simplistic, but in retrospect, that was a nice place to exit…. and yes we've regained some 17 spy points, but that will be
back-tested at some point

[DellGriffith]

One pretty good tell is when the market makes a big move, the people who lost a fortune start getting really philosophical (and cranky) on internet forums. a good example is this guy named NAV on another board. he started ranting out of nowhere about the difference between a trading system and an indicator. that itself is a great tell that he mustve lost a lot money last week.

people really dont get upset on this forum, which to me is a sign that this is a quality forum and there are a lot of good traders here.

[daytradingES]

Might be worth looking/checking around 2001/2007 to see what was happening with the first sell off levels. Just in case we are headed for some of the same in the weeks ahead, fwiw. Volatility is very elevated these days... so the flip/flops may happen faster?

Yes.

I have read two interesting books one the market crash of 2000 and one the market crash 2007.

In the second, one researcher linked seismic activity before a major earthquake and the market. The market showed more and more rapid swings before a big crash in the same way seismic activity picks up.

[DellGriffith]

McClellan's latest:
“…defining the 10% and 20% thresholds as markers for categorizing types of declines is a functionally meaningless exercise… So when you hear an analyst or “expert” talking about the 10% and 20% thresholds, you can reliably know that such a person really does not understand how prices behave, and he does not get the distinction between a bear market and a correction.”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... ar_market/

Yikes. splitting hairs over the definition of bear market and correction. mcclellan because he does great work. but that is just so small minded. i expect better of him. lost a bit of respect for mcclellan today.

[Al_Dente]

McClellan's latest:
“…defining the 10% and 20% thresholds as markers for categorizing types of declines is a functionally meaningless exercise… So when you hear an analyst or “expert” talking about the 10% and 20% thresholds, you can reliably know that such a person really does not understand how prices behave, and he does not get the distinction between a bear market and a correction.”
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... ar_market/

Yikes. splitting hairs over the definition of bear market and correction. mcclellan because he does great work. but that is just so small minded. i expect better of him. lost a bit of respect for mcclellan today.

I liked this part:
So if one says, “Oh well, it’s 10%, so it is just a correction,” then that would be similar to the guy who jumped off a 20-story building and was heard to say as he passed the 10th floor, “So far, so good.”
McClellan‘s been around a long time and inherited his schtick from his parents. Down 20% has been the “age-old definition” of a bear market, but this “-10% down is JUST a correction” stuff is made-up by unqualified kids on the financial news desks, where they do more harm than good.
I think he was reacting to that….
Best to you,
Al

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM:
These are my momentum-based indicators that I will be watching MONDAY, the last day of the month.
Updating the MONTHLY Meb Faber/Bulkowski/Ned Davis/Al Brooks template.
To remain LONG-TERM LONG requires a MONDAY CLOSE ABOVE the monthly 10sma (Faber, pink line), or above the 12sma (Bulkowski, gold line) or above a 3/10ma cross (Davis, not shown here).
Closing below would be the signal for long-termers to exit SPX until the signal is contravened by a subsequent monthly move above those parameters. Friday’s close was below, but we have to wait until the CLOSE MONDAY.
[Brooks uses the monthly 20ma (cyan dashed line) as a “target” rather than a signal.]

[Cobra]

Week down as low as 8% but close up 0.8% since the year 2016.

[tkvprasad]

From Al Brooks.. Thanks to Al for giving me pointers to read great traders..

https://brookstradingcourse.com/market- ... ce-action/

[daytradingES]

11:22 PM 8/29/2015

Some weekend review fun.
Clearly one can't take guessing at the upcoming week's movements as anything more than just fun - but hey - I enjoy trying!

Part 1
http://screencast.com/t/DNqLXIjI49sX
Part 2
http://screencast.com/t/Jk1FAbYeW9VQ