09/19/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution.It does not reflect today's status though, so the chart doesn't tell us anything more rather than what's happening.

[Cobra]

Smart money sold a little bit so it's still case 2.), still pointing the low was in or the next week we'll see huge short?

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[fehro]

Weekly, Daily Candles. Weeklies not healthy looking inverted hammer's doji's long wicks to the updside.. vs VIX, TLT, GOLD bullish leaning

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies.

[fehro]

T2 Indicators http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
SKEW elevated still http://www.cboe.com/micro/skew/documents/SKEWFAQ.pdf

[fehro]

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily.

[fehro]

Yields

[MrMiyagi]

$6 gap to play in

spy

[uempel]

Chart shows monthly SPX candles with MA 9.

A bull market shows monthly SPX candles closing above the MA 9, bear markets vice versa. But of course there are false signals too, and this makes everything a bit more interesting

Traders with nerves of steel are short SPX until it closes back above the MA 9 (which is now at 2050) and then they switch to long.

My take: As SPX is beneath daily MA 377 (SPX 2010), weekly MA 75 (SPX 2020) and monthly MA 9 (SPX 2050) my bias is definitely bearish. And if last week's SPX closing area 1950/1965 doesn't hold I'm expecting a 5 percent decline down to 1850.

(Resistance DMA 377 and WMA 75 not shown on this monthly chart.)

[gappy]

5th weekly close under the ema34. Different underlying market structures so different paths but similar degree of damage to price.

non.PNG

Vote Cobra. glta

[koolblue]

First, an opinion on the bigger picture...

[koolblue]

and the daily chart....

[koolblue]

And shorter term note the developing positive divergencies,

[BullBear52x]

Friday closed kind of shutting the bullishness down in short term, acc/dist is now back with the bears, bulls need to work harder in coming week.

$NYAD suggests end of bull runs.

[daytradingES]

looking at swing high on ES as 2021 on 24 Sept

anyone else got this?

[silicon_beaver]

Continued, , ,

Weekly Chart
white red mix pattern,

presently
SPX N=11 (i.e. RRRRRRRRRRR). longest was N=11 in history. N=12 never happened.
SPY N=10 (i.e. RRRRRRRRRR). longest was N=11.

what happened in history?
SPX
9/6/1994 - 11/14/1994, next week down.
2/7/1977 - 4/18/1977, next week even.

SPY
9/6/1994 - 11/7/1994, next week up. also look into SPX above.
9/20/1993 - 11/22/1993, next week up.

[koolblue]

Next week is historically the weakest week of the year... also the next three weeks are historically the weakest...

[gappy]

“It is very ugly for the U.S. oil business and oil exporting countries suffering from fiscal deficits. This cannot go on for long,” said Steve Pruett, president and chief executive officer of Elevation Resources.
He predicts there will be bankruptcies seen this fall and next spring as banks conduct their October and April redeterminations of customers’ borrowing bases.
Stephen C. Taylor, president and chief executive officer of Natural Services Group, agreed and said another source of pain will be oil price hedges of $80 and $90 a barrel expiring, forcing operators to accept lower prices for their production.
“We’ve had some rigs come off, but I feel like we need more rigs to come off. And we’ve seen some production roll off, but not as much as expected. That will happen with the decline curve,” Taylor said.
“There’s still a little more pain to go through before production comes off significantly enough that prices will start to come back up,” he continued. His expectation is it will be sometime next year before a recovery is seen.
Pruett agreed, saying the consensus is oil prices will end the year around $50 to $55 a barrel and $60 by the end of next year.
“No one would be drilling now if they did not believe oil will return to $60 or more per barrel in 12 to 18 months,” http://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article ... 53253.html Hope wt crude goes to 30/bbl. Will buy healthy operators there left and right.

[Trades with cats]

Not to be a broken record but at this time the Iran deal is going through and they will go back to what they were producing. Libya and Iraq will keep increasing production. China demand isn't increasing. US auto sales are real good and those new gas pick-ups get 22 to the gallon so no big increase in US demand. The US drillers can't stop well completion, they are underwater financially and it gives them cash. So until prices get below out of pocket to run the wells they have no choice. As the famous airline industry saying goes ( I think it was the head of United) in the long run we are all dead anyways, so until they die everyone is looking at survival not profit.

The experts are claiming that Shale, in the better areas, pencils out at around $60, so that should put an intermediate term cap on prices. Of course as drilling rights expire and the business shrinks how much will those farmers be willing to settle for in a couple of years? What will the banks sell all that fancy equipment for? So a vulture funds could be opening new wells at a somewhat lower price.

The government owned producers are in a real pickle. Gary Shilling explained it many years ago. Because it pays for the government they are in the perverse situation of having to increase production and they are.

So as the saying goes with many commodities the only cure for low prices is low prices, but just like Detroit real estate it could take a while for oil to come back. In the mean time every glimmer of hope will be used by the big boys to squeeze the shorts just like last week making CL a traders playground.

[3DM]

dont like the supply narrative. what about price leadership, can make money if the price leader lets you. seems more like politics and the dollar. completely unrelated but US is no longer exporting as many dollars for oil which is reverberating everywhere else, not in oil markets just in terms of rest of world dollars to spend. adding at 30 sounds great but seems the dollar reverberation takes longer to digest.

60 USD for oil is 75 CAD and the oil sands and everything in Alberta were pretty much built with such an expectation. of course that was 10 or 20 years ago. now we can sit back and watch for some new pipelines or LNG to the coast? we could also convert gas to hydrogen instead of burning it.